PB GFI Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just chill. Wait for the euro. The GFS seeing something like this isn't crazy considering the depth of this trough. It's been talked about here for a week. I posted here 2 days ago. The euro control run 2 days ago caught the northern stream do exactly this along the arctic front. It's not like it isn't in any of there members. So just wait. This is seen on some of it's 51 members already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It still wants to drive it into a high and 50/50 low though, so some things haven't changed But the early next week's lakes cutter is really weak this run, more of a frontal passage now. That's the key to our 50/50 low. If that's weak, the 50/50 won't be very strong and the 22/23 storm can easily end up going west of us imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Meant it would lose it as a snow event. Since NAO is less pronounced for THAT time, it tries to cut it to the Lakes. It is a transient -NAO, and it is chosing this weekend to flex it rather than the 22nd-23rd. WX/PT We are unlikely to have a LONG-TERM negative NAO this season. That is why the models will jump back & forth. They are deciding when to blow up the 50/50 and -NAO, if it's earlier, this weekend is our big storm, if it's later, it could be one of the next two, probably the 22nd-23rd, we still do not know for sure except that this weekend is looking better ATT. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I just laughed when I saw that.but yet people think the gfs is right with Saturday's storm, a model that wants to run a low into a high over se canada with a -nao block and a 50/50 low next week. Just a ridiculous solution, but because it shows a snowstorm on saturday, that run is gospel. I just can't take the gfs seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Meant it would lose it as a snow event. Since NAO is less pronounced for THAT time, it tries to cut it to the Lakes. It is a transient -NAO, and it is chosing this weekend to flex it rather than the 22nd-23rd. WX/PT Big snowstorm for next week on the GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 but yet people think the gfs is right with Saturday's storm, a model that wants to run a low into a high over se canada with a -nao block and a 50/50 low next week. Just a ridiculous solution, but because it shows a snowstorm on saturday, that run is gospel. I just can't take the gfs seriously It's not only the GFS for this weekend. Every model has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Negative Tilt trough looks really nice, but only about a 2-4" type deal for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Big snowstorm for next week on the GFS!!! Nope. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Negative Tilt trough looks really nice, but only about a 2-4" type deal for most... Could be more if it trends further west. GFS and Ukie have more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM is on board with the upgrade..might be believable.We'll see how good the upgrade is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Negative Tilt trough looks really nice, but only about a 2-4" type deal for most... those ggem maps are hard to read, but it looks like about 12.5 mm of qpf for NYC east through 60 hrs... 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 H5 is really improved on the GFS from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 H5 is really improved on the GFS from earlier runs. It phases in and closes off at 500mb at the last second. It's really not that far off from showing a mega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If things continue to improve for this threat, then this could be more than just a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 those ggem maps are hard to read, but it looks like about 12.5 mm of qpf for NYC east through 60 hrs... 0.50" And 2-3mm before that. And probably a bit more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Although I am intrigued by this and feel this def has a chance to come even farther west and drop more qpf than currently modeled..... One little slip up by the models keying on the wrong piece of energy could shift this entire storm back to being a nonevent. I'm loving these model trends but staying very timid about this storm producing is the best way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And 2-3mm before that. And probably a bit more after. And 2-3mm before that. And probably a bit more after. here is hr72...we need that neg tilt to happen a bit further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And 2-3mm before that. And probably a bit more after. yeah, hr 72 gives SNE another blizzard lol..for our region the qpf distribution is a bit east of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I wouldn't bet against the Euro - it showed basically nothing here for last night and that's what we ended up with EURO showed nothing for my area and i got a couple inches last night. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 here is hr72...we need that neg tilt to happen a bit further south It stills gives NYC/LI 15-18mm of precip (estimated) and a bit more for CT. That's a solid 5"-10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yeah, hr 72 gives SNE another blizzard lol..for our region the qpf distribution is a bit east of the GFS It's similar totals to the GFS for NYC/LI/CT. But west of there is a bit less then the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It stills gives NYC/LI 15-18mm of precip (estimated) and a bit more for CT. That's a solid 5"-10" of snow. It stills gives NYC/LI 15-18mm of precip (estimated) and a bit more for CT. That's a solid 5"-10" of snow. not to be greedy, but its gonna suck to see some areas of SNE get feet of snow again...i guess its payback for 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GEFS look really nice, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 not to be greedy, but its gonna suck to see some areas of SNE get feet of snow again...i guess its payback for 2009-2010 Give me another 10 again and I'm fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 JB says to go with the JMA/Ukmet since they have had it all along and says Eoro is having front runner problems - DT says to be careful any jog east and we miss out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pending a EURO surprise I would say a 2-4/3-6 storm looks increasingly likely for NE NJ/NYC/W LI, possibly more on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 not to be greedy, but its gonna suck to see some areas of SNE get feet of snow again...i guess its payback for 2009-2010 SNE has more snow climatologically than we do, for a reason. And we get slammed with this solution anyway. If the Euro jumps on board, this will definitely be interesting. Hopefully no jogs east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Pending a EURO surprise I would say a 2-4/3-6 storm looks increasingly likely for NE NJ/NYC/W LI, possibly more on LI I think it's premature to forecast amounts on this when just 24 hours ago it was flurries and the main system was 100s of miles northeast of us. Right now, the question is what the EURO says and do these ideas hold for to the 00Z model cycle tonight. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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