mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Until Euro is aboard..very skeptical..lessons learned the hard wayexactly, although some choose to make the same mistake over and over again and keep getting burned and disappointed by the same models. we have seen the same models do the same thing how many times now since november? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like this might be turning into a LI/SNE back end winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 wow - if the trough axis could keep itself a bit further west this would be awesome (like the Euro map from last week i posted earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 what time frame is this? Sat night sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's the UKMET at 48...cannot see beyond that... Here's the UKMET at 48...cannot see beyond that... better trough axis that the GFS...kinda looks like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 here is the 60hr UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 wow - if the trough axis could keep itself a bit further west this would be awesome (like the Euro map from last week i posted earlier) Already looks good for the area. Like you say, could be even better. Notice how slow the SLP moves once the trof takes on that really sharp tilt. We want to get in on that longer duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and the ukmet is usually on the SE side of guidance...aint it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does the 60 hr. UKMET have precip maps? Looks decent I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 what time frame is this? Sat night sunday? Saturday into Saturday night if it happens. The GFS is pumping it up but I'm not quite ready to jump on with both feet. One foot up. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 here is the 60hr UKMET The UK looks fantastic. Probably even better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea.. I'm not jumping on until the king approves.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Have to ask this, if everything worked out in the best case scenario...what could NE NJ NYC and Western LI see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea.. I'm not jumping on until the king approves.... Big shift in the 12z data so far...let's see what the 12z GGEM shows with its new upgrade...would think the 12z euro will look similar to whatever the GGEM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 4-8" BCS Have to ask this, if everything worked out in the best case scenario...what could NE NJ NYC and Western LI see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yea.. I'm not jumping on until the king approves.... King will probably approve a more modest event, my guess. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE hour 54-60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE hour 54-60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE hour 54-60: WOW! Analog 12/30/00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This will the 6 th time it will have snowed in CNJ since Feb 1 Pretty remarkable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and UKMET at hr72...just doesnt capture the low and drag it back west, even though the trough goes negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 King will probably approve a more modest event, my guess. WX/PT The GFS is throwing most of its marbles into the 16-17th event and will probably at least temporarily lose the 22nd-23rd event. The ECMWF last night threw all it's marbles into the 22nd-23rd event. The difference is the timing of the NAO and 50/50. ECMWF holding back, GFS and other models moving things fast forward. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS is throwing most of its marbles into the 16-17th event and will probably at least temporarily lose the 22nd-23rd event. The ECMWF last night threw all it's marbles into the 22nd-23rd event. The difference is the timing of the NAO and 50/50. ECMWF holding back, GFS and other models moving things fast forward. WX/PT Doesn't having last night's system out of the way and more 'players on the field' have a difference today --- making this Euro run much more critical to the forecast? I'd think the Euro shifts again, but not quite to the UKIE/GFS level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS is throwing most of its marbles into the 16-17th event and will probably at least temporarily lose the 22nd-23rd event. The ECMWF last night threw all it's marbles into the 22nd-23rd event. The difference is the timing of the NAO and 50/50. ECMWF holding back, GFS and other models moving things fast forward. WX/PT PT -The GFS has not lost the storm!!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 PT -The GFS has not lost the storm!!! Rossi It still wants to drive it into a high and 50/50 low though, so some things haven't changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Big shift in the 12z data so far...let's see what the 12z GGEM shows with its new upgrade...would think the 12z euro will look similar to whatever the GGEM showscertain folks will categorically dismiss both the ggem and euro if they do not show a snowstorm on saturday, watch. A guy who plays meteorologist for the hudson valley area on facebook is already calling for a mecs with up to a foot of snow. It's crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It still wants to drive it into a high and 50/50 low though, so some things haven't changed I just laughed when I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It still wants to drive it into a high and 50/50 low though, so some things haven't changed Not going to Happen - we all know that!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 PT -The GFS has not lost the storm!!! Rossi Meant it would lose it as a snow event. Since NAO is less pronounced for THAT time, it tries to cut it to the Lakes. It is a transient -NAO, and it is chosing this weekend to flex it rather than the 22nd-23rd. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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