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Potential Storm 2/17-2/19


Snow_Miser

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Appears whats happening is the models are moving away from focusing the main MSLP from being the one off the GA/FL coast in that trough line to being a new developing low off NC...still a dangerous setup if you ask me, if the models are off and that dominant low still wants to form more SE this is a miss.

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It's trying to come back to the original ECMWF look from about 8-10 days ago. Not quite there, and probably won't be, but it's trying. The trough axis is just a little too far east.

WX/PT

 

 

It's trying to come back to the original ECMWF look from about 8-10 days ago. Not quite there, and probably won't be, but it's trying. The trough axis is just a little too far east.

WX/PT

from 0Z last friday:

 

msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%

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Very chaotic setup and the models could easily be keying on the wrong energy. I would wait this out before hopping on board any solution. With something this chaotic, models could go back to zilch in a second.

 

I couldn't agree more especially after last nights fail (here). At this point it could be 10 inches or fail. Ill wait for tonight to make a call either way.

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It's trying to come back to the original ECMWF look from about 8-10 days ago. Not quite there, and probably won't be, but it's trying. The trough axis is just a little too far east.

WX/PT

Yeah the modeled upper levels have changed dramatically in the past day.  The GFS, Nogaps, UK, and several of the SREF and other ensembles have gone back to elongating the upper level low over the Lakes and tilting the trof strongly negative... this was the theme of a few days ago, when several models had monsters.  They use the initial Fri night/Sat wave but wait for the trailing energy in the trof to form a strong coastal low, albeit just offshore.  If real, this could be a big deal.  Much better chance for NE, but this could still shift further.

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