SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now the GFS has light snow on Saturday!!! I dont think its to warm? Rossi Its snow for sure, here is your numerial plot, BL is close but you've got tons of room for cooling....NAM is west of GFS as usual and GFS may be too happy with this event, could be a brief period of snow for ERN LI and SNE but thats all I'd bank on now. 279 1000 1.5/-1.80 356°/010 1500 945 975 -0.5/-2.40 359°/011 1500 1624 950 -2.3/-3.20 0°/010 1500 2320 925 -3.3/-4.00 352°/006 1500 3028 900 -4.4/-4.70 306°/005 1500 4498 850 -7.1/-8.40 255°/010 1500 6037 800 -11.0/-13.2 263°/012 1500 7651 750 -15.0/-18.0 270°/022 1500 9354 700 -17.0/-19.1 248°/042 1500 11178 650 -17.0/-17.7 221°/060 1500 13136 600 -20.6/-21.0 207°/062 1500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Check the nam at 0z looks like 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The SREF suite has some really wild solutions. They are all over the place with several interior snowstorms and several out to sea misses. The majority of the good hits are west of the metro area but at least a few are rain to snow. One member shows a few feet of snow for the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough looks father west thru 36 hrs gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like the GFS amplifies the same vort like the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like the GFS amplifies the same vort like the Nam Trough is father west though which is very encouraging so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is why I said we shouldn't just discount this because the models don't show a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The models have just begun to pick up on the idea of a storm along the mid atlantic coast this saturday- this is still a developing situation and still very much a possibility - so we shouldn't come to any conclusions yet............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rgem also amplifies the first wave just like the Nam and GFShttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rgem also amplifies the first wave just like the Nam and GFS http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html more models that come on board the greater the chances of course.............seems like the NAM is leading the way lately..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs looks like 1-3 for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs looks like 1-3 for Saturday which can obviously be more since the models are just picking up on this .............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS hr 60 and hr 66 take a step in the right direction. How does the surface look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS hr 60 and hr 66 take a step in the right direction. How does the surface look Plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS hr 60 and hr 66 take a step in the right direction. How does the surface look Below Freezing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS hr 60 and hr 66 take a step in the right direction. How does the surface look Easily cold enough, JFK is 30 and 29 respectively at those times, would need the GFS idea to be more right, if the NAM/RGEM are more correct we'd probably torch the boundary layer with an onshore wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Below Freezing http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_060_10m_wnd_precip.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_066_10m_wnd_precip.gif whats good about this situation is there is fresh cold air to work with - not the left over stale cold air like tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Glad to see the models coming back on board. We shall see what king Euro says later. It was certainly right here tonight. Unreal virga storm going on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Everyone was jumping off bridges today for this, I told people to stay patient and look what happens. If euro,shows similar Improvements would b it step. Also once this little nuisance system goes away, tmrw 12z will have better ideas what to do wit this s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You got fresh cold air coming in due to a highly amplified trough. Will things continue to trend in our favor? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ehh this isn't really an organized low pressure system though, more like a rapidly moving frontal wave with precip in and out within a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ehh this isn't really an organized low pressure system though, more like a rapidly moving frontal wave with precip in and out within a few hours Yeah, this is not going to be a big storm here, it could still possibly be for Boston but here if we pulled off 4 or 5 inches from it that would be a huge victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, this is not going to be a big storm here, it could still possibly be for Boston but here if we pulled off 4 or 5 inches from it that would be a huge victory. I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet about the big storm but I agree if we get a 3-6" storm it would be a huge success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet about the big storm but I agree if we get a 3-6" storm it would be a huge success. Agree. It could still trend better with the amplified trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, this is not going to be a big storm here, it could still possibly be for Boston but here if we pulled off 4 or 5 inches from it that would be a huge victory. yeah, def got some type of convective look to it. (per GFS). INteresting feature nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GEM is also going to do something but its much later getting its act together, really too late for anything other than light snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yeah, def got some type of convective look to it. (per GFS). INteresting feature nonetheless. All the models now show something. Really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GEM is also going to do something but its much later getting its act together, really too late for anything other than light snows... Like what I see on the RGEM at 48 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, this is not going to be a big storm here, it could still possibly be for Boston but here if we pulled off 4 or 5 inches from it that would be a huge victory. Yeah these types of scenarios with a weak wave along a polar boundary can be sneaky. And there are some indications that it might not be moving so quickly, which seems reasonable considering the orientation of the trough. I like the proximity of the -10C 850mb isotherm. But I'm a little concerned that the NCEP models might be a little too wet considering the forcing mechanisms. A few GEFS members have been hitting this threat over the past few runs so this isn't a huge surprise. I'll be interested in the mean and the individuals later. 4" would be sweet, especially if we can get surface temps into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Lee Goldberg says potentially a couple inches but this will not be a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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