leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What did gfs show for 22nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So its the GGEM & Nogaps vs the world or has the Nogaps jumped ship as well? lol.. nogaps, nowhere near as amped...no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 ya it runs a low straight into a -nao and 50/50. Highly doubtful its not a 50/50, its way too far to the east. that is why its able to cut up...there isnt a block which is why the big h5 low drifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What did gfs show for 22nd? it shows a moderate event on the 23 after rain on the 19-20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yup, just saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z GFS hour 90 on the left, 18z hour 96 right... New player on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 its not a 50/50, its way too far to the east. that is why its able to cut up...there isnt a block which is why the big h5 low drifts east. take a look at a latitude longitude map. It is EXACTLY a 50/50 low. It is basically over newfoundland around as the storm is forming and begins to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 take a look at a latitude longitude map. It is EXACTLY a 50/50 low. It is basically over newfoundland around as the storm is forming and begins to cut. yes, at 138-144hrs...at 162 its been displaced. no use arguing the GFS at 144 hrs however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM no longer an apps runner but what looks like a miller b low...heaviest precip in E PA.http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yes, at 138-144hrs...at 162 its been displaced. no use arguing the GFS at 144 hrs however Agreed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What do gfs ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lookie lookie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 what the heck is the GGEm doing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 what the heck is the GGEm doing??? It will be interesting to see how the first run of the newly changed GEM handles the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 what the heck is the GGEm doing??? If that happens, many here will like the outcome. At this point, I give it about a 20% chance of happening that way. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like a Miller B. Crushes the same areas as last week. It's not that dissimilar from what the GFS was doing a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It will be interesting to see how the first run of the newly changed GEM handles the storm. When is the first run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When is the first run? 12z tomorrow I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When is the first run? MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS- VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE: - CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC RUNS. OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO 3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If that happens, many here will like the outcome. At this point, I give it about a 20% chance of happening that way. WX/PT With that 500mb evolution that would be a widespread 1-2 feet fluff bomb across the area. Relatively long duration, cold temps, potentially unstable aloft. Would be lots of fun. And chances are the surface depiction is underdone with that upper level setup. But I think the chances of anything close to that occuring are much lower than even the 1 in 5 you give it. Chances of a plowable snow might be close to 1/5 but the GGEM has been trending rapidly with each cycle and the inter and intra model spread is extremely large. A wild solution is possible, but it seems unlikely that any particular model would have pegged such a wild solution at this juncture. But then again, we are starting to approach the short range with this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM keeps shifting east each of its last 3 runs. Take that into consideration* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GGEM keeps shifting east each of its last 3 runs. Take that into consideration* Yeah this pattern doesnt favor a cutter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What did the NOGAPS, FIM, JMA and GFS ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Has euro initialized? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro looks about the same thru 60 hrs.. No noticable changes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro is not impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What hour is it through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro is not impressive At this timeframe, I think it's safe to say the weekend threat is non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro? Should be past timeframe by now and it isn't loading for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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