mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i thought there was a storm for this fri-sat? Is this the same storm or another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Buy orange juice futures if that GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NOGAPS is very amped, which is a clear signal, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z Sunday JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 There are a few GEFS members that are really wrapped up with this system. Moreso than the 6z and 0z model runs. Any word on what the Euro showed for this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z ECMWF is close to being a significant event for the area. Blows it up for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 2 of the GEFS members blow up the storm near our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Upton Friday Night A chance of rain and snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean for next weekend. That's similar to the Operational ECM in the sense that it blows up just a bit too late for our area to really benefit. If it could intensify and really deepen just a bit sooner, we would have a major snowstorm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That's similar to the Operational ECM in the sense that it blows up just a bit too late for our area to really benefit. If it could intensify and really deepen just a bit sooner, we would have a major snowstorm on our hands.The difference is the operational send the northerm sw just south of nyc the ens takes it thru DC. And starts the process at the mouth of del bay. So lets see if over time it keeps digging and then it starts in the MA then goes to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Hearing alot of talk of a triple phaser for this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Hearing alot of talk of a triple phaser for this one..From whom?The 12z GFS has the kicker, coming faster, bigger into Dakotas. While the ECMWF on the other hand, is keep this storm flat, by not having upstream shortwave clear out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Hearing alot of talk of a triple phaser for this one... Not one model is showing a triple phaser. Who is talking about this being a triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 From whom? accuweather forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Some mets have mentioned it on here also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Need a storm first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Surprised nobody posted this nugget from the Mt. Holly AFD: NEXT WEEKEND...DETAILS TO BE DETERMINED. AM CONFIDENT THERE WILLBE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HERE AND INITIALLY NOTSURE IF ITS A COASTAL OR INSIDE RUNNER. WHERE THE COASTAL STARTSAND WHETHER IT SCOOPS SOME GULF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES ISIMPORTANT. THINK IT WILL SCOOP SOME GULF AND SE USA MOISTURE ANDWILL EVENTUALLY BE A STRONG STORM NORTH OF OUR AREA. IT COULD RUNTOO CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR SNOW HERE EXCEPT AT THE TAIL END. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z GFS at 132-144 shows the tremendous amount of energy available for this threat. If it could just be consolidated instead of so strung out there would likely be a Texas to Maine storm incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Geez look at that 500mb map at 153. Shift that trough axis 150 southwest and wow would that be a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z GFS pops the coastal further west on this run but it still goes ots. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_147_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like the gfs is starting to sniff it out. This one is extremely intriguing and it could be the big one for us, only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 H500 map is pretty awesome; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like the gfs is starting to sniff it out. This one is extremely intriguing and it could be the big one for us, only time will tell. And btw look at that PV that tries to drop in too. Everything is strung out and disjointed but this is over a week a way and we have many model runs to resolve it. Plus there is some blocking there so this would work hugely in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you have the key weather models sniffing something out nearly a week away, then there's definitely something there. The big storms are usually foreshadowed well in advance by the models I've noticed. The pattern looks incredible for the next 2-3 weeks, I mean wow. I would be shocked if we didn't get another major event or two this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you have the key weather models sniffing something out nearly a week away, then there's definitely something there. The big storms are usually foreshadowed well in advance by the models I've noticed. The pattern looks incredible for the next 2-3 weeks, I mean wow. I would be shocked if we didn't get another major event or two this month. What a turnaround huh? I'm amazed actually. I've remained optimistic especially here on the forum but I won't lie; I was very skeptical of winter returning. Well here she is.My thoughts are we are cold and stormy to basically finish our the month. Maybe our moderation period begins the last wk in feb. March is the wildcard because I believe we return to a cold and stormy pattern by early march to finish out winter with a bang. And you never know April could always throw us one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 H5 looks great http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 H5 looks great http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif Jeez, looks like a KU setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie Do you have the panel before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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