leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 All I'm saying is that we should really wait to call it a non threat, as the energy isn't onshore yet. The accuweather forecast said 50/50 shot of going up coast or ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If I recall, the JMA called that one 2 weeks out. One week out. It was the only model showing a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 All I'm saying is that we should really wait to call it a non threat, as the energy isn't onshore yet. The accuweather forecast said 50/50 shot of going up coast or ots. Please read more and post less... That is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any new info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any new info? This is a non event. Models are clearly showing the trough to Far East. Hopefully next week brings us more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Still think it is too far out to call Wb ooz gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs is trying to do something at 60 with the wave ahead of the full latitude trough. Trough and energy positioning look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 not gonna be much but there is some potential for a light event there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Through hr 60 the 00z GFS has trended stronger and more amplified with the energy crashing into the Pacific northwest. This in turn is amplifying the ridge out west more. It's too early to tell what will happen from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 not gonna be much but there is some potential for a light event there How can you make that call at hr 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Through hr 69, the amplification of the Pacific Energy is really amplifying the ridge and allowing for more digging, we shall see. Looks like some big improvements so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How can you make that call at hr 60? He is out to hr 78. It's a non event this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yanks i was talking about the initial wave that is separate from the 17-19 threat edit: and yes allsnow wrt to the actual event at hand ya you and I are out to 78 and its clear it'll be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Through hr 75 the pattern is less progressive for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yanks i was talking about the initial wave that is separate from the 17-19 threat edit: and yes allsnow wrt to the actual event at hand ya you and I are out to 78 and its clear it'll be a miss So that discussion doesn't belong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So that discussion doesn't belong here. well it kinda does being that the two are related...this could be our snow for the weekend if the euro and gfs are to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So that discussion doesn't belong here. Both chances are wide right. It was evident at hr 60. Granted things can changes, but right now everything point to a miss. Nothing looks favorable this run for a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The short wave for ths period is west of Alaska. Let's wait until thrs and it's on the grid. We will get a better sampling then It may not work in the end. But the models may not see it from here so it mayb useless to worry run to run. If its on grid thrs and there's no surface reflection under that trough then worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Despite some initial improvements at 500mb with the Pacific Energy it's just not going to happen. That massive amount of energy is being held up in Canada too long. We actually get a weak surface reflection at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 90 weak surface low about 300 miles east of ACY. I thought this run had some good improvements for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised for this thing to come back on the models, there's a lot of energy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised for this thing to come back on the models, there's a lot of energy out there. That Pacific energy trending stronger was nice to see because it amplified the ridge and prevented it initially from shunting everything too far east. The problem is that the energy diving down has trended slower and weaker. Most runs showing a mega storm have this thing phasing over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised for this thing to come back on the models, there's a lot of energy out there. Doesn't mean it has to trend into a storm. Lots of energy can also be sheared out around a broad trough because a progressive flow and deepening kicker trough is killing what chance it has to amplify in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe it won't trend into a storm but the pieces are definitely there. And I've seen the gfs bring back storms from the dead numerous times as did the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So its the GGEM & Nogaps vs the world or has the Nogaps jumped ship as well? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So its the GGEM & Nogaps vs the world or has the Nogaps jumped ship as well? lol.. Both not out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So its the GGEM & Nogaps vs the world or has the Nogaps jumped ship as well? lol.. you know how you know this threat is non-existent - there hasnt been one post about it in the SNE forum since 658PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Both not out that far yet. I know the GGEM isn't out yet but doesn't the Nogaps have 6/18z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well the gfs has a nice rainy cutter right after this "threat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well the gfs has a nice rainy cutter right after this "threat". ya it runs a low straight into a -nao and 50/50. Highly doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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