NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 H5 looks like **** on the NAM. Not to put too much insight into a hour 84 NAM h5 chart, but I agree, its progressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 H5 looks like **** on the NAM. Not sure I agree, that ridge looks more amplified to me. As if it would allow the energy to dig further SW. It's never a good idea to extrapoliate the NAM anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 when the enrgy hits land is it possible for the models to get a better read on the system??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 when the enrgy hits land is it possible for the models to get a better read on the system??? Yes, it will be better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 H5 looks fine at 84 imo, not sure what people are looking at but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 84 hr nam is pointless to even discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dt saying the euro ens give sne several inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs had some light snow Friday night like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just compare hr 87 on the GFS to hr 84 on the NAM. You can see how much further SW the energy digs on the NAM vs the GFS. The key is that amplification of the western ridge. The GFS flattens it out and everything is shunted eastward. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 As long as that energy crashing into the west coast happens with the trough axis at an already borderline latitude, this event will not happen. That energy crashing in and making the pattern more progressive is supported by the MJO, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs is even further east. I think the fat lady is warming up. Still think next week holds some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs is even further east. I think the fat lady is warming up. Still think next week holds some promise Agreed. I'll be happy to be wrong of course, but I don't like our chances with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mt Holly is forecasting rain showers chance and 51 for me on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs is even further east. I think the fat lady is warming up. Still think next week holds some promise Yeah, she is already practicing her scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dt saying the euro ens give sne several inches of snow. Yea he mentioned possibly central and eastern new england, cape cod. Zippo south of that though on either the gfs or ecmwf ensembles. We have simply run out of time for this thing and the new gfs is even more of a fish storm now. I think we can stick a fork in this thing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agreed. I'll be happy to be wrong of course, but I don't like our chances with this event.if the energy coming into the NW trends slower, or further north, or weaker, or any combination of that, we're looking much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 if the energy coming into the NW trends slower, or further north, or weaker, or any combination of that, we're looking much better. True, but given that the MJO will be in phase 4, I don't see that happening. Also, there is still that initial junk energy in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 True, but given that the MJO will be in phase 4, I don't see that happening. Also, there is still that initial junk energy in the Great Lakes.yes but I wouldn't call this dead. We need to at least wait for all the energy to make it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like the storm to watch is end of next week. 21-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z Euro control run at 96 hours starts a SLP south of LI - its 0Z run had it develop east of the cape . The 12z run has a half inch of LIQ into boston at hr `102 - its 0z has some snow showers there . For us the precip field is light , but is a little better than the 0z run . In no way is it a snowstorm , but mayb its a trend that the operational picks up on the next few days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Guys the storm is about 5 days out! With nemo, it wasn't really a threat until late nite tues/ Wednesday. Also the energy isn't even on sure yet, and the 18z has no more data than the 12z. I would seriously wait till ooz runs tomorrow, also the models may be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like the storm to watch is end of next week. 21-22 Yes, both DT and HM say that may be a real big deal. Unfortunately DT said last night that after the 22nd, winter ends, and an early spring starts, the polar vortex retreats back into Asia, and we go into a very unfavorable mjo period, raging pacific jet and -pna/+epo develops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The models for Feb 2006 didn't have a storm until 3 days before the event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Guys the storm is about 5 days out! With nemo, it wasn't really a threat until late nite tues/ Wednesday. Also the energy isn't even on sure yet, and the 18z has no more data than the 12z. I would seriously wait till ooz runs tomorrow, also the models may be umm no. Euro had this threat before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro said storm was threat about Tuesday, which was three to four days out. I had it for 7 straight model runs, thus about 3.5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro nailed Nemo at 138hrs. (I can't believe I am using the Weather Channel Name here) That said, it really had the threat prior to that on several runs a few days before, then completely lost it until 138 hrs out. Anyway, this storm is still a possibility, but is definitely looking less likely. But I agree, have to wait until the energy is on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Also most of the models are showing closer to shore except gfs and euro! The gfs ensembles looked good yesterday btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The models for Feb 2006 didn't have a storm until 3 days before the event . If I recall, the JMA called that one 2 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z Euro control run at 96 hours starts a SLP south of LI - its 0Z run had it develop east of the cape . The 12z run has a half inch of LIQ into boston at hr `102 - its 0z has some snow showers there . For us the precip field is light , but is a little better than the 0z run . In no way is it a snowstorm , but mayb its a trend that the operational picks up on the next few days . That is not the shortwave that was supposed to produce this storm. It is the one behind it for Saturday night into Sunday, and that one gets squashed and sent out to sea where it develops the low. This low is more of a nuisance type of low. We need something that digs far more, and there is one there, but like I said it gets completely squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If I recall, the JMA called that one 2 weeks out. JMA only goes out 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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