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Potential Storm 2/17-2/19


Snow_Miser

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NOGAPS looks like a boxing day repeat. It's obviously picking up on something. It picked up on sandy before anything else

 

Not exactly. It has running into Ohio Valley before transferring the coast. And alot of appears to be rain first. But it's awful with Winter Storms, anyway. So it's not important:

 

post-187-0-36666900-1360689663_thumb.gif

 

post-187-0-41881200-1360689696_thumb.gif

 

post-187-0-07793700-1360689704_thumb.gif

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Not exactly. It has running into Ohio Valley before transferring the coast. And alot of appears to be rain first. But it's awful with Winter Storms, anyway. So it's not important:

 

attachicon.gif12zNGPSf96.gif

 

attachicon.gif12zNGPS108.gif

 

attachicon.gif12zNGPSf120.gif

I don't think anyone here is taking the NOAGPS verbatim, but it's a red flag to be that amped up.

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When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex.

Actually that happened or came very close to happening in 2009-2011. There was a time or two where the warnings were actually dropped and replaced by a watch in either the same day or the next day.

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Did you ever think you would see a hurricane into NYC 2 years in a row ?

 

Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there.

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Did you ever think you would see a hurricane into NYC 2 years in a row ?

He doesn't know what he is talking about. This area has gone through plenty of stretches through the years of back to back storms. Winter of 2010-2011 for starters. Boxing Day ushered in one of the snowiest periods on record for us.

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When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex.

happened in philly 3 winters ago, 2/6/10 was 28 inches and then 2/10/10 i believe was about 16 more.  i may be off a date or two, but i lived there at the time

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When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex.

happened in philly 3 winters ago, 2/6/10 was 28 inches and then 2/10/10 i believe was about 16 more.  i may be off a date or two, but i lived there at the time

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Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there.

Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey.

Once you open with that , you will be ignored .

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Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there.

Did you live in the area during the 1993-94 and the 1995-96 winters? Multiple wintry storms occurred multiple times in a week plenty:

 

Happened in other years too:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

 

Winter 1993-1994

Snow storm, December 29-30, 1993

Ice storm, January 3-4, 1994

Ice storm, January 7-8, 1994

Snow and ice storm, January 17-18, 1994

Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994

Snow and ice storm, February 8-9, 1994

Snow and ice storm, February 11, 1994

Snow and ice storm, February 23-24, 1994

Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994

Snow storm, March 18, 1994

 

Winter 1995-1996

Snow storm, November 28-29, 1995

Snow storm, December 9, 1995

Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995

Snow storm, December 16, 1995

Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995

Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996

Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996

Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996

Snow storm, February 2-3, 1996

Snow storm, February 16-17, 1996

Snow storm, March 2, 1996

Snow and ice storm, March 7-8, 1996

Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996

 

 

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You understand that all that has to happen is the front max has to weaken a bit in the modeling and for the models to see the southern system is stronger and the trough sharpens and the storm bombs at HATT and not 200 miles east , so relax .

The models have over emphasized the northern SW`s all year and they get weaker EVERYTIME we get closer in ..

That may really be the error here . The models that havent strengthened the northern streams , see deepening closer in .

 

 

You understand that all that has to happen is the front max has to weaken a bit in the modeling and for the models to see the southern system is stronger and the trough sharpens and the storm bombs at HATT and not 200 miles east , so relax .

The models have over emphasized the northern SW`s all year and they get weaker EVERYTIME we get closer in ..

That may really be the error here . The models that havent strengthened the northern streams , see deepening closer in .

thanks Al Roker

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Euro looks pretty close to showing something but once again the lead vort in the Great Lakes dampens things out. It's not as bad as the 00z run though...so we'll see if it at least brings something near the coast.

 

Again the entire thing just looks too far east as myself and a few others said yesterday.

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Euro looks pretty close to showing something but once again the lead vort in the Great Lakes dampens things out. It's not as bad as the 00z run though...so we'll see if it at least brings something near the coast.

 

Again the entire thing just looks too far east as myself and a few others said yesterday

 

 

 

 

Pretty much like you said. The storm is there at hr 120 but its pretty far east. Looks alot like the 12z gfs. The storm crashing into the west coast kills our ridge and the trough is to far east

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Specifically referencing our region as this is the NYC/NJ regional board.

True but you can't disregard a winter just because your backyard does not get snow. It has been unlucky around here lately between last year and this year. NYC did okay'ish with Nemo but not enough to salvage this winter. Several other places such as Italy and Russia are getting historical snows. The potential is there....our bad luck cannot continue forever.

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