Weathergun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NOGAPS looks like a boxing day repeat. It's obviously picking up on something. It picked up on sandy before anything else Not exactly. It has running into Ohio Valley before transferring the coast. And alot of appears to be rain first. But it's awful with Winter Storms, anyway. So it's not important: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Then why are people posting and discussing the Nogaps, FIM and GGEM?.... Because some people are dismissing this too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Because some people are dismissing this too quickly. And it's interesting to talk about other solutions on the models considering the setup is favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not exactly. It has running into Ohio Valley before transferring the coast. And alot of appears to be rain first. But it's awful with Winter Storms, anyway. So it's not important: 12zNGPSf96.gif 12zNGPS108.gif 12zNGPSf120.gif I don't think anyone here is taking the NOAGPS verbatim, but it's a red flag to be that amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. Actually that happened or came very close to happening in 2009-2011. There was a time or two where the warnings were actually dropped and replaced by a watch in either the same day or the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. Did you ever think you would see a hurricane into NYC 2 years in a row ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And it's interesting to talk about other solutions on the models considering the setup is favorable Exactly, and the GFS has been less than stellar so far this year. Hopefull that the ECMWF at least shows us something. We're starting to run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did you ever think you would see a hurricane into NYC 2 years in a row ? Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did you ever think you would see a hurricane into NYC 2 years in a row ? He doesn't know what he is talking about. This area has gone through plenty of stretches through the years of back to back storms. Winter of 2010-2011 for starters. Boxing Day ushered in one of the snowiest periods on record for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. happened in philly 3 winters ago, 2/6/10 was 28 inches and then 2/10/10 i believe was about 16 more. i may be off a date or two, but i lived there at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. happened in philly 3 winters ago, 2/6/10 was 28 inches and then 2/10/10 i believe was about 16 more. i may be off a date or two, but i lived there at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there. Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Once you open with that , you will be ignored . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 happened in philly 3 winters ago, 2/6/10 was 28 inches and then 2/10/10 i believe was about 16 more. i may be off a date or two, but i lived there at the time Philly is not the NYC Metro Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Irene wasn't a hurricane when it hit Long Island and Sandy hit New Jersey. Strong hurricanes make it up this far almost all the time, just because the steering winds were perfect and this thing phased with another storm, doesn't mean we're going to get this triple phaser event everyone keeps talking about. It's rare enough that we're actually going to get a snow-something Weds/Thurs. But to get THREE storms in one week? Sorry. Odds are against it. Highly. Hey, I'd love another 20" on top of what I got - I'd love to root for this thing, but the odds and the model support just ain't there. Did you live in the area during the 1993-94 and the 1995-96 winters? Multiple wintry storms occurred multiple times in a week plenty: Happened in other years too: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Winter 1993-1994 Snow storm, December 29-30, 1993 Ice storm, January 3-4, 1994 Ice storm, January 7-8, 1994 Snow and ice storm, January 17-18, 1994 Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 8-9, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 11, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 23-24, 1994 Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 Snow storm, March 18, 1994 Winter 1995-1996 Snow storm, November 28-29, 1995 Snow storm, December 9, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995 Snow storm, December 16, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996 Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996 Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996 Snow storm, February 2-3, 1996 Snow storm, February 16-17, 1996 Snow storm, March 2, 1996 Snow and ice storm, March 7-8, 1996 Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You understand that all that has to happen is the front max has to weaken a bit in the modeling and for the models to see the southern system is stronger and the trough sharpens and the storm bombs at HATT and not 200 miles east , so relax . The models have over emphasized the northern SW`s all year and they get weaker EVERYTIME we get closer in .. That may really be the error here . The models that havent strengthened the northern streams , see deepening closer in . You understand that all that has to happen is the front max has to weaken a bit in the modeling and for the models to see the southern system is stronger and the trough sharpens and the storm bombs at HATT and not 200 miles east , so relax . The models have over emphasized the northern SW`s all year and they get weaker EVERYTIME we get closer in .. That may really be the error here . The models that havent strengthened the northern streams , see deepening closer in . thanks Al Roker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Philly is not the NYC Metro Area. oh stop that is stupidity, nyc metro is snowier than philly....are you really arguing that it could happen there but not here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 thanks Al Roker He should be so gifted .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ok guys come on - go to banter with these clowns . stay on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Fully expecting Dr. No to once again shatter the dreams of millions in the coming minutes. Eh, maybe I jinxed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro looks pretty close to showing something but once again the lead vort in the Great Lakes dampens things out. It's not as bad as the 00z run though...so we'll see if it at least brings something near the coast. Again the entire thing just looks too far east as myself and a few others said yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro look like the GFS, i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 some snow showers friday night on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro looks pretty close to showing something but once again the lead vort in the Great Lakes dampens things out. It's not as bad as the 00z run though...so we'll see if it at least brings something near the coast. Again the entire thing just looks too far east as myself and a few others said yesterday Pretty much like you said. The storm is there at hr 120 but its pretty far east. Looks alot like the 12z gfs. The storm crashing into the west coast kills our ridge and the trough is to far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Pretty much like you said. The storm is there at hr 120 but its pretty far east. Looks alot like the 12z gfs. The storm crashing into the west coast kills our ridge and the trough is to far east Welcome to winter of 2013, wash, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Welcome to winter of 2013, wash, rinse and repeat. What about Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What about Boston. Specifically referencing our region as this is the NYC/NJ regional board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 now all we need is a southwest flow aloft....get the warmth in here...SPRING/GOLF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Specifically referencing our region as this is the NYC/NJ regional board. True but you can't disregard a winter just because your backyard does not get snow. It has been unlucky around here lately between last year and this year. NYC did okay'ish with Nemo but not enough to salvage this winter. Several other places such as Italy and Russia are getting historical snows. The potential is there....our bad luck cannot continue forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NYC got 11.4" of snow.. That's a very good storm for NYC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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