MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM is an inland runner with a transfer once again. H5 on the Nogaps goes bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NOGAPS looks like a boxing day repeat. It's obviously picking up on something. It picked up on sandy before anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I can name several storms off my head that have made several corrections... Boxing Day, Blizzard of '96, February 10, 2010, January 05 blizzard. Right, I understand anything is possible, and I totally hope I'm wrong. But it should at least be acknowledged that the Boxing Day-type shifts are closer to the exception than the rule. In our favor we have several models depicting a formidable storm, but it's just important to keep in mind that the signal isn't all that strong and time is running short. Just my thoughts, and I'm not trying to be a debbie by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah - its ALWAYS good to roll with the NOGAPS as a lone wolf....(well the GGEM had a driving Rainstorm cut west of us)...the dynamic duo right there Who cares what they say verbatim, the fact that they are not even close to being as flat as the GFS is a red flag IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If the euro shows another complete miss, it is not a good sign IMO. We are 4 days away, and it's disturbing that both the gfs and euro are still showing complete misses. Can it turn around in the next 3 days? yea, unlikely, most definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I would not quite stick the fork in this threat yet. The problem is that there is too much activity in the northern stream. As I said before, without much if any blocking in the North Atlantic, the 50/50 low cannot set up there, it just moves away, and that allows for the intensifying moisture laden systems to hook over us or to our west. On the other hand, if the 50/50 low stays there, there tends to be too much confluence too far south and it gets suppressed. The third scenario is that because (lack of blocking) these systems are pushed along too fast they do not develop or phase until they are too far north and east. There is one more problem now showing up which is clearly noted on the 00Z Euro, the decrease in se-ward penetration of the genuinely cold air. But, because of the parade of shortwaves in the southern and northern streams, and the tendency for a transient ridge to build on the west coast, I would not stick the fork yet in any of these threats. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 But but but you said winter was over after the 11th. You're quite the optimist as of late. Lol. Do you like the new me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol. Do you like the new me? Just relax bud It's only snow, not worth getting upset over. This winter we have had a KU event and many, many smaller events to track. It's not quite 2010-2011 but it's leaps and bounds better than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I would not quite stick the fork in this threat yet. The problem is that there is too much activity in the northern stream. As I said before, without much if any blocking in the North Atlantic, the 50/50 low cannot set up there, it just moves away, and that allows for the intensifying moisture laden systems to hook over us or to our west. On the other hand, if the 50/50 low stays there, there tends to be too much confluence too far south and it gets suppressed. The third scenario is that because (lack of blocking) these systems are pushed along too fast they do not develop or phase until they are too far north and east. There is one more problem now showing up which is clearly noted on the 00Z Euro, the decrease in se-ward penetration of the genuinely cold air. But, because of the parade of shortwaves in the southern and northern streams, and the tendency for a transient ridge to build on the west coast, I would not stick the fork yet in any of these threats. WX/PT Sounds like you don't buy the models as per EURO and GFS hook line and sinker just yet. Hoping you're on to something. Lee Goldberg on channel 7 ((NYC) said he believes this threat is alive and expects closer to coast solution than progged at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Alot of rain on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ukmet has a late blooming miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Alot of rain on the GGEM I wouldn't be worried about that right now Anthony, I'm just happy that it shows a storm. It means a lot of have at least one reputable model on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Alot of rain on the GGEM Alot of rain on the GGEM That's actually a good sign, means gfs is way too east. I hope the Euro shows something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm not saying anything. Model chaos ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, GGEM cuts off the trough in the midwest, resulting in an apps runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sounds like you don't buy the models as per EURO and GFS hook line and sinker just yet. Hoping you're on to something. Lee Goldberg on channel 7 ((NYC) said he believes this threat is alive and expects closer to coast solution than progged at the moment. This weekend, I'm not sure. OT, the 22nd-23rd looks beautiful, a little more room for that one, might have temporary precip-type issues but moves a tad bit slower, it's way down the road so much can change, but it has looked great on many model runs and continues to. We shall see. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs, gefs, euro and euro ensembles are well offshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, GGEM cuts off the trough in the midwest, resulting in an apps runner I am new so if this sounds stupid please forgiving me i am still learning. But are the colors according to temps, be cause it looks cold if it is, again sorry but i am trying to learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah, GGEM cuts off the trough in the midwest, resulting in an apps runner Honestly this setup looks more like a March noreaster when we trully get into cut off low season. And if you can get a good track with a cut off low and a decent cold air source you can get somethng historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just relax bud It's only snow, not worth getting upset over. This winter we have had a KU event and many, many smaller events to track. It's not quite 2010-2011 but it's leaps and bounds better than last winter. What? I'm not upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am new so if this sounds stupid please forgiving me i am still learning. But are the colors according to temps, be cause it looks cold if it is, again sorry but i am trying to learn No worries, welcome aboard, those colors are showing the heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs, gefs, euro and euro ensembles are well offshore.... Yes but I dont think a model will have a clue until the storm passes by us tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What? I'm not upset Not now, but you were. The negative talk was over the top. And if this treat doesn't pan out, just let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes but I dont think a model will have a clue until the storm passes by us tomorrow Anthony, if you look at the 12z GFS you can see that the ridge out west is transient which is allowing the northern stream energy coming into the northwest to knock it down and kick everything eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NOGAPS looks like a boxing day repeat. It's obviously picking up on something. It picked up on sandy before anything else NOGAPS looks like a boxing day repeat. It's obviously picking up on something. It picked up on sandy before anything else its purpose is the tropics...so it should have picked up the hurricane first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Who cares what they say verbatim, the fact that they are not even close to being as flat as the GFS is a red flag IMO Who cares what they say verbatim, the fact that they are not even close to being as flat as the GFS is a red flag IMO the fact that the euro and gfs agree is enough for me to dismiss the NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not now, but you were. The negative talk was over the top. And if this treat doesn't pan out, just let it go. What treat? I'm lost. When was I negative about anything the past two weeks? My posts have been pretty level head in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the fact that the euro and gfs agree is enough for me to dismiss the NOGAPS Not when the GGEM is inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the fact that the euro and gfs agree is enough for me to dismiss the NOGAPS You understand that all that has to happen is the front max has to weaken a bit in the modeling and for the models to see the southern system is stronger and the trough sharpens and the storm bombs at HATT and not 200 miles east , so relax . The models have over emphasized the northern SW`s all year and they get weaker EVERYTIME we get closer in .. That may really be the error here . The models that havent strengthened the northern streams , see deepening closer in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes but I dont think a model will have a clue until the storm passes by us tomorrow Then why are people posting and discussing the Nogaps, FIM and GGEM?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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