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Potential Storm 2/17-2/19


Snow_Miser

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What have the overall trends been on the Euro and GFS? I could care less if the Nogaps is showing a storm with out any other support. Not impossible but super unlikely!

 

Euro and GFS have a miss but the GEFS mean had a strong low inside the benchmark on the 0z runs last night. Euro is making strides but it's not there yet,same as the GFS.

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I think it's about time to stick a fork in this particular threat... the evolution of the storm would have occurred well within 100 hours, and it's relatively unlikely that the most credible pieces of guidance will make such huge synoptic corrections in the next few runs.

It wouldn't take much to get much. Alot of volts running around.

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Either the GFS is wrong or the other models don't have a clue.

I tell you what's going on, the northern stream is coming in and knocking down the ridge out west before it can fully amplify. That's helping to kick this thing too far east. We need that energy to be held back over the southern plains and wait for the phase.

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I think it's about time to stick a fork in this particular threat... the evolution of the storm would have occurred well within 100 hours, and it's relatively unlikely that the most credible pieces of guidance will make such huge synoptic corrections in the next few runs.

I can name several storms off my head that have made several corrections... Boxing Day, Blizzard of '96, February 10, 2010, January 05 blizzard.
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There are " some " LIGHTWEIGHTS , to keep your attention here , NOGAPS , CMC , UKMET , FIM . Its early in the cycle and EC phasing is always dicey - so relax .

Get past Wed nite first . And if we whiff on this you may have mid week system next week to look at .

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Agree. 174 hr out its still a threat.

 

 

Agree. 174 hr out its still a threat.

yup - i think MUCH more so than the first one, but it will all depend on what happens with at where the first sets up in SE Canada...hopefully over labrador and not NE of New Foundland

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Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag.

 

 

Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag.

yeah - its ALWAYS good to roll with the NOGAPS as a lone wolf....(well the GGEM had a driving Rainstorm cut west of us)...the dynamic duo right there

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