Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Essentially, like I noted about 4 days ago, this is kindling, sitting on the fire place, waiting for someone to spark the fire. This storm basically makes or breaks this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Time to break out the FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Essentially, like I noted about 4 days ago, this is kindling, sitting on the fire place, waiting for someone to spark the fire. This storm basically makes or breaks this winter. Oh yeah, 2 big storms like this and Friday's and we remember this as a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does fim have qpf readings? If so wht are they for our area? They're on the map you were just looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ik that is per 6 hours though, any total readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OT but im really liking the 21-23rd period for a big winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does fim have qpf readings? If so wht are they for our area? 1-2 inches of QPF This is the first time this winter that I posted this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 1-2 inches of QPF This is the first time this winter that I posted this model Didn't you you post it for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cool good point, late 22nd I believe is more specific general timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Didn't you you post it for Friday? I don't even remember . I haven't had a good night sleep in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The FIM is that type of model that has its' ups and downs. Basically 50/50, depending on the type of ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What is link to op euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS ensemble members are all over the place and time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wb euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wb euro ensembles? 4am or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 4am or so Oh god, not staying up for that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 1-2 inches of QPF This is the first time this winter that I posted this model Some offices in the NWS Central region, including my office (Chicago) and Minneapolis St. Paul have referenced the FIM in AFDs this winter, so maybe it's not too off-base to post its output here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Some offices in the NWS Central region, including my office (Chicago) and Minneapolis St. Paul have referenced the FIM in AFDs this winter, so maybe it's not too off-base to post its output here. Out of curiosity, what has been the verification rate for this experimental model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Out of curiosity, what has been the verification rate for this experimental model? Not sure if it has a full set of verification scores since it's still experimental, but it anecdotally appears to be an okay model. It had a decent handle on the northern stream component of "Nemo" as it pushed through northern IL on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yikes, SNE gets the flood of a century there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This storm looks like its going to cause massive model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We really need the energy diving down the back of the trough to sharpen it up enough for a closer to coast low track. A tiny adjustment in the trough evolution will make a significant difference. We may have to wait for resolution when the piece of energy up north gets sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OT but im really liking the 21-23rd period for a big winter storm. I heard that for this weekend too...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GGEM ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 jeez this looks like its going to be a disappointment....the trough is just too long and the pacific NW shortwave will force this to be a bit to progressive (at least how its modeled currently)...hopefully it changes, not a whole lot of time left, considering the inevitable pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I must sya we are 4 days out i am a little worried that the models aren't picking up on this potential, Is it we have to much of a perfect setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What is going on with the NOGAPS? Is that a late spawning miller B? That makes no sense, but the GGEM is nearly the same thing. This would be a BECS for us for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Nogaps keep on showing a big storm this weekend which is really shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What have the overall trends been on the Euro and GFS? I could care less if the Nogaps is showing a storm with out any other support. Not impossible but super unlikely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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