Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We need more consolidation in the trough, energy is everywhere Yeah. 6z was the most recent impressive solution, and the differences in trough structure and energy focus are stark. This run still has that weird "V" look on the H5 vort charts... I think the orientation is an improvement at the same time frames, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agreed... that monster full latitude trough has incredible potential but is positioned a touch too far east. Yeah..and the fast pattern out west doesn't really help either. Unless something changes it could be pretty painful watching such a potent trough go to waste (unless you're in nova scotia) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sub-952 mb on landfall over Newfoundland at hour 153. Shows the setup for an intense cyclone is still there by all means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah..and the fast pattern out west doesn't really help either. Unless something changes it could be pretty painful watching such a potent trough go to waste (unless you're in nova scotia) The fast pattern really has been a downer this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lee goldberg from abc 7 said he feels this storm will trend closer to the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Guys it is 5-6 days out! Not at all worried. The vday storm will help to clarify the models. We should wait for the ensembles and also euro to come out! Gfs many times has lost a storm only to gain it back with avengence a few days before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lee goldberg from abc 7 said he feels this storm will trend closer to the shore Just heard him say that too. Wonder what the euro will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I disagree , the problem is right there at 120 hours . It has the Southern short wave near HATT and by 126- it jumps it out . The GFS loves to eject the energy east as fast as possible . If it holds more energy back it comes up. I dont dislike the look at all . We have all seen the GFS do this 20 times over the past 5 years . I think its up this weekend not out . ( they have all come up this year ) one way or another for the most part , they`ve gotten to the BM , IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lee goldberg from abc 7 said he feels this storm will trend closer to the shore Lee is a great meteorologist, so that's encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I disagree , the problem is right there at 120 hours . It has the Southern short wave near HATT and by 126- it jumps it out . The GFS loves to eject the energy east as fast as possible . If it holds more energy back it comes up. I dont dislike the look at all . We have all seen the GFS do this 20 times over the past 5 years . I think its up this weekend not out . ( they have all come up this year ) one way or another for the most part , they`ve gotten to the BM , IMO . Very true and great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The trough axis can be east as everyone is saying...BUT what we need is for the trough to take a negative tilt earlier to allow the system to head north or NNW. Between NYC and BOS, someone is going to hate this weekend's storm. If it gets really amped, it could cut across LI or CT and stall or it could amp up too late and send New England another blizzard. Lee goldberg from abc 7 said he feels this storm will trend closer to the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The trough axis can be east as everyone is saying...BUT what we need is for the trough to take a negative tilt earlier to allow the system to head north or NNW. Between NYC and BOS, someone is going to hate this weekend's storm. If it gets really amped, it could cut across LI or CT and stall or it could amp up too late and send New England another blizzard. Is there a way where we can all get in the fun? I am sure there is and we will see that potentially be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is 12/26/10 (Boxing Day Snowstorm) a good analog for this run of the GFS? The setup seems similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ...and because the system gets booted out so quickly, it doesn't stick around at 50/50 to help out next week's event, which then cuts into WNY. Ugly run for the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's kinda funny with this trough. The amplitude is actually TOO long. It takes forever for the energy to round the base and by the that time, it's already out to sea. Also, with such a short wavelength, the wavelength to amp ratio is likely way off as well. There is a ratio (dare I say I forget now) that is ideal for a storm to intensify. A few ways to get into the action with this...slow down the flow in front...if Wed.'s storm can be a bit more potent and lead to more confluence over the NE....or get heights to be bumped up a big to the SE...or a more potent piece of energy in the STJ. Is there a way where we can all get in the fun? I am sure there is and we will see that potentially be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is 12/26/10 (Boxing Day Snowstorm) a good analog for this run of the GFS? The setup seems similar. not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GGEM is well west lol http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is oz ggem a good hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did the ggem really just throw a cutter at us? Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Most likely Rain to Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cutter on the GGEM. Lovely. Late transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Miller B. Lmao. Then it gets to the coast somehow. Weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Most likely Rain to Snow. a low track off the coast and rain to snow? huh? Seems like you were referring to the ggem and the pic was of the 120h ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What does it give us in terms of qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 a low track off the coast and rain to snow? huh? Seems like you were referring to the ggem and the pic was of the 120h ukie i keep thinking that the ukmet map is the GGEM lol Ukmet is a monster no doubt. GGEM is a cutter lots of solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 a low track off the coast and rain to snow? huh? Seems like you were referring to the ggem and the pic was of the 120h ukie Yeah. Sorry. The graphics can sometimes shadow each other to me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i keep thinking that the ukmet map is the GGEM lol Ukmet is a monster no doubt. GGEM is a cutter lots of solutions Can u send me the link to ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 BTW, Ukmet is basically shows the same scenario as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can u send me the link to ukmet? It's already posted up above. It has a monster trough BTW, Ukmet is basically shows the same scenario as GFS. Really? looks much better to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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