eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:16 AM, jetski09 said: I wouldn't make that conclusion just yet about the big storm but I agree if we get a 3-6" storm it would be a huge success. There are a few massive SREF members but they are all well west of the area. I think it would take a really significant change in the modeled upper level orientation to get a big storm for the area... probably some kind of cutoff in the mid-Atlantic. I think one way we could get slightly more significant snows is if this becomes more of a longer duration 12+ hours event (quasi-stationary boundary), instead of a quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKMET looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:26 AM, Snow88 said: All the models now show something. Really interesting.. Not all, the euro hasn't come out yet and the new higher resolution canadian is showing basically nothing. Once again, we have the normally overdone/overjuiced nam and rgem and the flip flopping gfs showing "something". This is like déjà vu with these models. And as far as the ukie goes, you can't trust that thing as far as you can throw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wht did gfs ensembles show? Also who has a good link to euro model page? Mine won't load at moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:08 AM, leemhoc said: Wht did gfs ensembles show? Also who has a good link to euro model page? Mine won't load at moment It basically supported the op GFS. The mean QPF was around 0.2". Obviously there is some decent spread, so the mean SLP is weak, broad, and offshore. But the past few runs have been inching more QPF westward and most members have been reasonably similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The Euro is close to the GFS, UK, GGEM, SREF mean with a narrow band of light QPF sliding through the area on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The Euro might hit NNE pretty good late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What about track improvements, trough, etc. honestly qpf really isn't my interest right now it is the trough, track and phasing of three shortwaves. Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:31 AM, leemhoc said: What about track improvements, trough, etc. honestly qpf really isn't my interest right now it is the trough, track and phasing of three shortwaves. Anything? nothing is phasing on saturday, this is not going to be a storm for us. It is simply a weak wave developing on the front after it passes. I was beat to it, but the ecmwf is showing the same thing as the canadian, very light snow/snow showers saturday morning, not amounting to much if anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At 60 hours about 10 of the 12 individual GFS ensemble members show something going on with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:31 AM, leemhoc said: What about track improvements, trough, etc. honestly qpf really isn't my interest right now it is the trough, track and phasing of three shortwaves. Anything? The shortwave that several models previously blew up into a major storm is still a miss. By the time it rounds the base of the trof, the baroclinic zone and all the subtropical moisture is well offshore. The Saturday wave is a minor perturbation along the polar front along east side of the trof. This feature has gotten slightly sharper, spawning a weak SLP right along the coast. This is not really a phasing scenario. The low is weak and moves through relatively quickly. Stronger PVA is needed to initiate more significant cyclogenesis and slow the wave down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What is ur guys link to euro? I use psu weather wall yet it is not working! If u have a link culd u,plz send it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:40 AM, SnowGoose69 said: At 60 hours about 10 of the 12 individual GFS ensemble members show something going on with snow. Two members actually look like moderate snowstorms. But I think there was at least one good hit in each of the past few ensemble cycles. Seems unlikely that the solutions with well defined surface lows could verify, but it's plausible, especially considering some of the SREF members and the other globals moving in a similar direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:43 AM, eduggs said: The shortwave that several models previously blew up into a major storm is still a miss. By the time it rounds the base of the trof, the baroclinic zone and all the subtropical moisture is well offshore. The Saturday wave is a minor perturbation along the polar front along east side of the trof. This feature has gotten slightly sharper, spawning a weak SLP right along the coast. This is not really a phasing scenario. The low is weak and moves through relatively quickly. Stronger PVA is needed to initiate more significant cyclogenesis and slow the wave down. Very good explanation, this is nothing more than a weak surface wave with real limited upper/mid level dynamics above it and little qpf as well. Despite this, I'm sure certain weenies on various other sites will be calling for 6 or more inches and wondering why winter storm watches aren't being posted by late this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What did euro have for 23rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 6:53 AM, mikemurph44 said: Very good explanation, this is nothing more than a weak surface wave with real limited upper/mid level dynamics above it and little qpf as well. Despite this, I'm sure certain weenies on various other sites will be calling for 6 or more inches and wondering why winter storm watches aren't being posted by late this morning TY. I think you are right to label this a weak wave, unlikely to deliver much, if any snow. But it's definitely worth watching. In the high baroclinic environment (steep temp gradient from east to west), it would not take much vorticity advection to spawn a low and initiate a rapid, self propagating storm intensification/trof sharpening. Notice how several of the SREF members really go to town with initially meager waves and quickly turn them into strong low centers. Sure, the meso members in that suite have a tendency to do that, but you can see it to a lesser extent on two of the 0z GEFS members. This is not a classic big storm setup by any means. But it can deliver sneaky high QPF bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nam has a nice little coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is also a nice event. Coastal looks west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gefs is also on board . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ^ when is this for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tomorrow night. Right now, it is a weak storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 9:11 AM, Snow88 said: Nam has a nice little coastal Kiss of death, the opposite will happen, the nam is really that bad of a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 11:34 AM, mikemurph44 said: Kiss of death, the opposite will happen, the nam is really that bad of a model Will the real mikemurph please stand up? Let me guess, you just stumbled on to the site, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 11:34 AM, mikemurph44 said: Kiss of death, the opposite will happen, the nam is really that bad of a model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do you think now that this minor event has moved out, we could see the models continue to pick up this system as something bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 11:47 AM, WeatherGod said: Do you think now that this minor event has moved out, we could see the models continue to pick up this system as something bigger? Sat northern stream develops on the cold front and moves NE. Good poss of accumulating snow though. The southern stream which would hav been big is wide right. Better chance for a bigger system next wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gefs members show accumulating snow. Not alot but a few inches is possible. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend a little more stronger. This is a complicated setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 12:46 PM, Snow88 said: Gefs members show accumulating snow. Not alot but a few inches is possible. I wouldn't be shocked to see this trend a little more stronger. This is a complicated setup. I agree. Just look at how the RGEM is handling this so far, it already has a nicely developing area of precipitation to our south at 48 hrs. The UKMET blows this thing up into a monster, probably a bit further north, but this definitely has room to continue trending stronger as the data gets better sampled. As you see, most of the models have consistently been trending stronger on each model run for the past few runs. This can really get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does the EURO have anything for this wave, or does it save the fun for eastern areas? After the last one, not biting on anything until the EURO is onboard or shows hope... If it's wrong i'll be pleasantly suprised. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 1:40 PM, skisheep said: Does the EURO have anything for this wave, or does it save the fun for eastern areas? After the last one, not biting on anything until the EURO is onboard or shows hope... If it's wrong i'll be pleasantly suprised. -skisheep .20" for NYC on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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