MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:45 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What have the overall trends been on the Euro and GFS? I could care less if the Nogaps is showing a storm with out any other support. Not impossible but super unlikely! Euro and GFS have a miss but the GEFS mean had a strong low inside the benchmark on the 0z runs last night. Euro is making strides but it's not there yet,same as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 when the 0z NOGAPS shows a hit and the GGEM shows an inland runner, it's worth paying attention to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:47 PM, Zir0b said: when the 0z NOGAPS shows a hit and the GGEM shows an inland runner, it's worth paying attention to 0z GGEM is way different than the ensembles. Ensemble mean has a low near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:49 PM, Snow88 said: 0z GGEM is way different than the ensembles. Ensemble mean has a low near the coast. At some point, and sooner than later we need to see the GFS or the Euro latch on. This isn't a 10 day threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's definitely a red flag when a usually east biased and progressive model (Nogaps) shows something like this. Other models and ensembles show it too. I wouldn't be surprised if models like the gfs show a complete reverse from run to run with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Quote GFS time good luck here's to it picking up on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Through 105 not much going on. Looks like its squashing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12 GFS not a sniff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think it's about time to stick a fork in this particular threat... the evolution of the storm would have occurred well within 100 hours, and it's relatively unlikely that the most credible pieces of guidance will make such huge synoptic corrections in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:03 PM, Juliancolton said: I think it's about time to stick a fork in this particular threat... the evolution of the storm would have occurred well within 100 hours, and it's relatively unlikely that the most credible pieces of guidance will make such huge synoptic corrections in the next few runs. It wouldn't take much to get much. Alot of volts running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:02 PM, PB GFI said: 12 GFS not a sniff It's just a matter of the phase being too late on this run once again. I really think this is one of those scenarios where we have to wait for all the energy to be better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:04 PM, Snow88 said: Either the GFS is wrong or the other models don't have a clue. I tell you what's going on, the northern stream is coming in and knocking down the ridge out west before it can fully amplify. That's helping to kick this thing too far east. We need that energy to be held back over the southern plains and wait for the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's too early to give up given the complex pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not giving up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:11 PM, Snow88 said: It's too early to give up given the complex pattern. Anythony, the GFS was very very close to producing. We need to see the northern stream wave out west trend more amplified which will then in turn amplify the ridge more which will then in turn allow the energy to dive further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Regardless on what happens. Pattern next week looks pretty good. In sure we will get one more threat before morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:03 PM, Juliancolton said: I think it's about time to stick a fork in this particular threat... the evolution of the storm would have occurred well within 100 hours, and it's relatively unlikely that the most credible pieces of guidance will make such huge synoptic corrections in the next few runs. I can name several storms off my head that have made several corrections... Boxing Day, Blizzard of '96, February 10, 2010, January 05 blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice looking threat Monday and Tuesday on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There are " some " LIGHTWEIGHTS , to keep your attention here , NOGAPS , CMC , UKMET , FIM . Its early in the cycle and EC phasing is always dicey - so relax . Get past Wed nite first . And if we whiff on this you may have mid week system next week to look at . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said: Nice looking threat Monday and Tuesday on gfs On 2/12/2013 at 4:21 PM, Allsnow said: Nice looking threat Monday and Tuesday on gfs if the 50/50 (quasi) positions itself to far northeast that threat will cut west of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:24 PM, ace0927 said: if the 50/50 (quasi) positions itself to far northeast that threat will cut west of us... to DET it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:24 PM, ace0927 said: if the 50/50 (quasi) positions itself to far northeast that threat will cut west of us... Agree. 174 hr out its still a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:29 PM, Allsnow said: Agree. 174 hr out its still a threat. On 2/12/2013 at 4:29 PM, Allsnow said: Agree. 174 hr out its still a threat. yup - i think MUCH more so than the first one, but it will all depend on what happens with at where the first sets up in SE Canada...hopefully over labrador and not NE of New Foundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:15 PM, Allsnow said: Regardless on what happens. Pattern next week looks pretty good. In sure we will get one more threat before morch But but but you said winter was over after the 11th. You're quite the optimist as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:29 PM, wolfsheepsheadbay said: Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag. Can you post please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM is going to be well west of the GFS once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:35 PM, Snow88 said: GGEM is going to be well west of the GFS once again Yes, Nogaps is a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is GGEM an inland runner again? That's where you'd want it to be if the GFS shows a fish. And the NOGAPS...yeah by no means should this potential event be written off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 4:29 PM, wolfsheepsheadbay said: Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag. On 2/12/2013 at 4:29 PM, wolfsheepsheadbay said: Nogaps has that HECSy look. Still a red flag. yeah - its ALWAYS good to roll with the NOGAPS as a lone wolf....(well the GGEM had a driving Rainstorm cut west of us)...the dynamic duo right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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