andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:35 AM, Snow88 said: This has huge potential. The Nogaps keep on showing a big storm. It's not like the Nogaps. That's because the NOGAPS is terribad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:35 AM, Storm At Sea said: There wasn't much blocking with the recent blizzard. Lately, a half decent 50/50 low has been doing the job. No question, you don't always have to have blocking but it helps. But we're not going to get those really slow movers without that blocking. A major difficulty the models are having putting together this weekend storm is the nearly perfect but very deep trough in the fast flow. One system after another doesn't allow enough time or room for most of them to blow up without hooking over us or to our left. Without the 50/50 low, we wouldn't have had anything. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:41 AM, andyhb said: That's because the NOGAPS is terribad. Nogaps is usually progressive so it's on to something here. GEFS went way west right under LI. GGEM is way west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:42 AM, Snow88 said: Nogaps is usually progressive so it's on to something here. GEFS went way west right under LI. GGEM is way west of the GFS. As impressive as it was, I wouldn't lose sleep over a Nogaps run at this juncture. If the Euro climbs on board, that would be a different story! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:42 AM, Snow88 said: Nogaps is usually progressive so it's on to something here. GEFS went way west right under LI. GGEM is way west of the GFS. Post of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:44 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: As impressive as it was, I wouldn't lose sleep over a Nogaps run at this juncture. If the Euro climbs on board, that would be a different story! WX/PT I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 5:35 AM, Storm At Sea said: There wasn't much blocking with the recent blizzard. Lately, a half decent 50/50 low has been doing the job. How about a beasting MJO signal and a PNA spike combined with some blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z Euro coming out soon, keep us updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nogaps ends up being a monster hit between 120-132...not that it matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The euro looks more poised to show something based on the trough and energy alignment on 78hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro is way farther west with the main vort coming over the Intl border at 90 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It trended better but the trough gets dampened out by the lead vort of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The energy over the Great Lakes really elongates the trough and gives it no chance .. if the Euro is right. The trough axis is bordering on too far east as it is...so that Great Lakes/Southeast Canada energy literally won't allow the storm to form until its out over the Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's a really potent shortwave coming through the Plains at 84 hours though...good to see. And it phases with some energy hanging back over the S Plains as well...would be a ticking time bomb if we could just get rid of that lead stuff over the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 522dm heights at H5 are phasing into the main trough at 126 hours over the Mid Atlantic...too far east as it is this run but very impressive potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:20 AM, earthlight said: That's a really potent shortwave coming through the Plains at 84 hours though...good to see. And it phases with some energy hanging back over the S Plains as well...would be a ticking time bomb if we could just get rid of that lead stuff over the Lakes. yeah no doubt..Massive potential here. Just gotta get rid of that junk to increase heights out ahead of the beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's a good trend, gfs did not show that energy over Great Lakes, so who knows. But if trough can hold steady boy do we have a monster on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0z GEFS H5 membershttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/ensloopwide.htmlInteresting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And also vday storm might help to rid Great Lakes of that energy or whatever is up there, if it can go north enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol at those members getting the 498 dm contour involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:25 AM, Snow88 said: 0z GEFS H5 members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_0z/ensloopwide.html Interesting Alot of glorious setups on there...Heck, even the mean is glorious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Time to break out the FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Lol the fim! But it does look quite promising!! A lot of these models are trending toward solution the ukmet has, an all out monster. I believe by maybe Thursday 12z, we will have pretty good model agreement on this storm. When do euro ensembles come lout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:33 AM, leemhoc said: Lol the fim! But it does look quite promising!! A lot of these models are trending toward solution the ukmet has, an all out monster. I believe by maybe Thursday 12z, we will have pretty good model agreement on this storm. When do euro ensembles come lout? Fim is well west of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:31 AM, Snow88 said: Time to break out the FIM Classic, all we need now is for it to verify.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:34 AM, Snow88 said: Fim is well west of the 12z run. It is, and almost every single model has trended west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 FIM would rip us to shreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does fim have qpf readings? If so wht are they for our area? On 2/12/2013 at 6:34 AM, Snow88 said: Fim is well west of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Correct me if I am wrong but doesnt the Fim use the GFS parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 6:36 AM, CooL said: FIM would rip us to shreds Looks incredibly similar to the 18Z NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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