nzucker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's a monster trough....-10C 850s down to Florida/Georgia border and 0C down to Miami. Agricultural interests should take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 6:35 PM, Snow88 said: The ensembles are way more bullish though which is great. On 2/11/2013 at 6:35 PM, Snow88 said: The ensembles are way more bullish though which is great. dude - they were borderline with a 1004 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is some model support that the Euro mayb missing the weekend system and then whats behind it . Going to be very hard to drive a storm to the lakes in the middle of next week - in the face of a block . We`ve seen the Euro do this a few times this year as it loves to wind things up into the lakes , only to have its Ensembles be the first to catch that error . As far as the weekend , There are plenty of models that want to eject a substanital piece of energy all the way up the coast . So I would look to the ensembles for a hint . The 0z had a weak surface feature but nothing like the other global models have . Plenty of time to slow the pattern down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 oh yes when the model does not show snow lets question it to death and say it will be wrong....just last week Euro was king, do not question it. Its really mind boggling how people are in such denial about objectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 7:39 PM, winterwarlock said: oh yes when the model does not show snow lets question it to death and say it will be wrong....just last week Euro was king, do not question it. Its really mind boggling how people are in such denial about objectivity What is your point? Or are you just one of the Neg5™ ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 7:39 PM, winterwarlock said: oh yes when the model does not show snow lets question it to death and say it will be wrong....just last week Euro was king, do not question it. Its really mind boggling how people are in such denial about objectivity How did that work out for your weatherman on news 12 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There are examples of the Euro playing second fiddle. I would point out boxing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 7:45 PM, cleetussnow said: There are examples of the Euro playing second fiddle. I would point out boxing day Euro had it for days, lost it for a run and then brought it right back. GFS brought it back first but missed on how strong it would be once it did bring it back. When the Euro brought it back it was more accurate in it's result than the GFS ended up being. Let's not forget the GFS and all the models basically lost it as well. It is notable that the GFS brought it back first but it was incorrect with what it depicted once it did bring it back anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 7:39 PM, winterwarlock said: oh yes when the model does not show snow lets question it to death and say it will be wrong....just last week Euro was king, do not question it. Its really mind boggling how people are in such denial about objectivity Theres a banter thread. Use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 6:35 PM, Snow88 said: The ensembles are way more bullish though which is great.. The 12z euro ensemble mean has not come out yet, the operational was a fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 8:09 PM, mikemurph44 said: . The 12z euro ensemble mean has not come out yet, the operational was a fish storm Its in other threads... its a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 8:09 PM, mikemurph44 said: . The 12z euro ensemble mean has not come out yet, the operational was a fish storm Wrong. It's a miss, but better than the Op. And since every other model has the storm, and the Euro played this same way with the storm this week, it's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Don't model watch, instead look at the entire grand scheme of things. I'm very confident all of the models will show something huge in a couple days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Totally agree jetski, all of the teleconnections are in place, and the models have to sort out the vday storm first, after that storm is when the models will show this huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS ensemble members are a wash...half show big hit; half show fish storm. Biggest difference between 12z GFS and Euro is trough axis goes negatively tilted much earlier in the period. Essentially, it's a question of phasing timeline...The next 48 hr will show a trend one way or another as more data arrives ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 geez look at 120 on the 18z GFS. Wow. continuous energy making a giant V lol stretching from the arctic to the gulf of mexico back to greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think this run of the GFS may do something big. Looks like it's digging further south and the energy is more consolidated at hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS appears as if its going to be a massive hit. 126 looks uber amped...170-180kt jet off the carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks more amped through 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 129 sub 1008 south of HSE with the energy almost fully involved its getting its act together QUICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hr 129 huge phase taking place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the low ends up scooting a bit too far east but a huge storm just off the coast. Trough goes negative a bit too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 10:14 PM, Kaner587 said: the low ends up scooting a bit too far east but a huge storm just off the coast. Trough goes negative a bit too late I haven't seen it yet but I was thinking that, you really want to see it go negative tilt by hr 130. Still trending towards a major storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This has triple phase written all over it....just a few hundred miles too far offshore. Trogh axis from Cuba to North Pole...gotta love it. I wouldn't worry too much. 18z GFS runs have been garbage recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The phase takes forever, by hr 144 it's still not fully phased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big big storm setup six days out with a decent airmass. I'll take that. Should be fun to watch from a meteo standpoint either way with some of these upper-air charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 10:18 PM, Storm At Sea said: This has triple phase written all over it....just a few hundred miles too far offshore. Trogh axis from Cuba to North Pole...gotta love it. I wouldn't worry too much. 18z GFS runs have been garbage recently. I was thinking that too. When is the last time we had a triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 10:18 PM, Juliancolton said: Big big storm setup six days out with a decent airmass. I'll take that. Should be fun to watch from a meteo standpoint either way with some of these upper-air charts. Don't kid yourself, if the storm gets here, temps will not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 On 2/11/2013 at 10:12 PM, YanksFan27 said: Hr 129 huge phase taking place That just has incredible potential-I could see a mega storm blowing up somewhere from this. Look at the depth of that trough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hr 150 she finally closes off at 500mb. I would expect that given the energy involved, this will trend much further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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