Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The 00z GEFS are indicating one of the most favorable periods we have seen all winter with a nearly ideal ridge axis along the west coast, and positive height anomalies into Greenland and the Davis Straight. Every single operational model has this system, and the potential is there for this to be a pretty large scale system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 With a trough like that, a huge Miller A bomb would be very ripe for DC-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I honestly don't see how this DOESN'T happen. Full latitude trough...significant KU signature to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I honestly don't see how this DOESN'T happen. Full latitude trough...significant KU signature to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I honestly don't see how this DOESN'T happen. Full latitude trough...significant KU signature to it.Aloft this is better of the 2 systems. The midweek may slide south , but this one has a healthy look to it .Prob just more of a widespread event not as severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's apples and oranges. The first system is a peice of energy that hangs back after the front slides through the NE. It's a Miller A with marginal temps around. The second system is a full latitude trough and involves the polar and subtrop. jet. Euro tries to hang some of the energy back and hence, it takes forever for the system to evolve (classic issue with the Euro). GFS ensembles were going nuts over the second system. Aloft this is better of the 2 systems. The midweek may slide south , but this one has a healthy look to it .Prob just more of a widespread event not as severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermd Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 PD III ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I heard on another thread triple phaser not sure what that means, is it the three jet streams coming together? or 3 storms coming together? Either way is it being modeled as a triple phaser?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I heard on another thread triple phaser not sure what that means, is it the three jet streams coming together? or 3 storms coming together? Either way is it being modeled as a triple phaser?? Jets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's apples and oranges. The first system is a peice of energy that hangs back after the front slides through the NE. It's a Miller A with marginal temps around. The second system is a full latitude trough and involves the polar and subtrop. jet. Euro tries to hang some of the energy back and hence, it takes forever for the system to evolve (classic issue with the Euro). GFS ensembles were going nuts over the second system. Was comparing to the severity of today. Agree widespread. Texas to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 12z UKMET is pretty amped up with this system. 1007 mb low over Arkansas at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Is it being modeled as a triple phase ? sorry for asking just trying to learn what to look for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 ECMWF update on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 hr 174 and after doing its typical holding back energy over the southwest...a low is forming over the western gulf as this ejects northern stream energy dropping down from canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ok so bias in play... Plenty of time. That's the one that could be blockbuster for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 orientation of the 2 disturbances is way off...the northern stream ends up squashing the vort out of the sw. Think it would look slightly different though in reality but we'll have to just keep this threat in mind and see the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 12 Z GFS actually lost the massive storm from last nights 00z run which was around 204 hrs out and now just offers a small disturbance around 162 hr time frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 interesting read ECMWF Compared to the other 2 operational models described above, the ECMWF does the best in predicting mid/upper tropospheric heights during the colder part of the year(such as October through April). The ECMWF tends to perform quite well in predicting amplitudes of planetary-scale regimes such as the Pacific/North American teleconnection (PNA). This model can also perform outstandingly during low to high planetary-scale wavenumber transition events, and northern hemispheric-scale regime transitions (Berry et al. 1996, CR TM 111). Outperforms the other medium-range forecast models during shallow cold air situations. Tends to overdevelop mid/upper cyclones across the southwestern U.S. Situations arise where this model will be too slow to predict the movement of cyclones from the southwest deserts. Has a slight tendency to forecast mid/upper tropospheric heights and the resultant thickness calculations too high (i.e.; a warm bias). Sometimes, especially during the warmer portion of the annual cycle, this model has too many closed lows. This bias may be related to its high resolution. Tends to overamplify the long wave pattern, resulting in slower than observed progression of systems through the westerlies. This can result in overly weak and northward displaced short waves and associated surface features lifting into the long wave ridge position. Found to have the smallest overall distance errors with springtime closed low forecasts during days four and five. Westward forecast bias of closed cyclones (related to the issue described above) Often too slow moving short wave features in deamplifying or zonal patterns Of the medium range models, the ECMWF performs best with driving Arctic fronts down the east slopes of the Rockies. The ECMWF too often incorrectly digs closed upper lows SWWD then WWD underneath strong upper ridges over the Eastern Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 The 12z Euro ENS have a strong signal for this storm with a 1004 mb low just E of LI at hour 192. The 12z GEFS also have a strong signal for being so far out in the forecast timeframe. 1002 mb low on the Benchmark at hour 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The 12z Euro ENS have a strong signal for this storm with a 1004 mb low just E of LI at hour 192. The 12z GEFS also have a strong signal for being so far out in the forecast timeframe. 1002 mb low on the Benchmark at hour 180. That is a pretty big signal...impressive for the ensembles this far out for both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The key to this forecast is the energy coming out of the Southwest in concert with the northern stream. The Euro ensembles are not hanging back as much energy as the OP sometimes does. This is a good time to watch for a big amplification especially if the trough can go neutral to negative further west. Very nice blocking signal at the time as others have mentioned. Euro ens OP may be hanging back too much energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Full latitude system like that are usually very cold systems and are wide spread. You can snow from Texas to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Presidents day looks like a weird Miller A on this run that hits NYC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 CMC and EURO both have really nice troughs, i definitely see some potential. NOGAPS is the most amplified of em all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Red flag there with gaps, which has a progressive bias. Threat is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro ens. still seem to be interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Red flag there with gaps, which has a progressive bias. Threat is real. Theoretically, this is the perfect scenario in which to use the gaps to gather information. We'll see if that old progressive bias thing pans out this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I haven't seen a full latitude like this in a while. This threat has great potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS and Euro are not of much use for this event right now, the GFS cold bias is killing it with 534 thicknesse to Miami and the euro is hanging back stuff in the SW. The GEM/NOGAPS are most useful at this point since they do not have biases that are not showing the system, should start seeing the GFS/Euro pick it up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 ya GFS looks very cold and the baroclinic zone ends up way east. I think this is a legitimate threat though obviously. That s/w dropping down behind this trough also has potential. February is looking to get increasingly more stormy and continue with cold, even getting colder relative to normal once we finish off next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.