Roger Smith Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Complete phase (process soon to begin around 40N from 72-76W) seems likely around 22z to 00z south of Montauk Pt, expect explosive development of sea effect enhancement bands from Long Island Sound across Queens then west-central LI overnight, with increasing NE winds (G55 mph) and thundersnow. My predicted amounts remain same ballpark as earlier, 12-18" for metro NYC, 14-20" northern NJ across Bronx and White Plains into sw CT, 18-23" for central Long Island. Holding with 25-35 inch forecasts for much of southern New England with 40 inch max possible northwest to west of BOS. This will only get better as the primary pulls in the Lake Ontario wave. Mixing issues should end fairly quickly once the upper low exits NJ and hits the Gulf stream. Then that becomes an issue for s.e. MA but even in eastern Long Island this should go to all snow after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Below freezing now. Mix of freezing rain and sleet Same here. Had a little snow mixing in, that disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 "Interior New Jersey is likely to see slightly less, anywhere from 3 to 6 inches. New Jersey's I-95 corridor may get the biggest break, with 1 to 3 inches forecast by the latest models." I'm ready for my 1-3"!! 3" here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im a noob but can we keep obs in the obs thread? This thread is for forecasting the storm, not IMBY observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 "Interior New Jersey is likely to see slightly less, anywhere from 3 to 6 inches. New Jersey's I-95 corridor may get the biggest break, with 1 to 3 inches forecast by the latest models." I'm ready for my 1-3"!! Unbelievable. From showing a graphic yesterday morning with 29" for Central Park to 1-3" now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We're a tiny bit below freezing already. We're gonna change shortly Still no snow here in south Brooklyn, I hope the rain snow line didnt stall just north of me temps are dropping to around freezing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Unbelievable. From showing a graphic yesterday morning with 29" for Central Park to 1-3" now? Nobody takes NBC4 seriously. I know I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My bad Im a noob but can we keep obs in the obs thread? This thread is for forecasting the storm, not IMBY observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from looking at spc meso...925mb - 850mb are 0 or lower now from SI north.... slp is 986mb but dunno if thats correct.... about to leave work...showtime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The low is now down to 986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low is absolutely exploding now. Down to 986.2 mbs 500mb/MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Plume chart for NYC is down to 10" now. Boston still in the 25"-30" range for last 36hrs. Isn't system moving too much to the east? Will it be pulled back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF definitely ticked a hair west with the 06 hr QPF between 6-12 hours compared to the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Beautiful grearth 2013-02-08 14-28-27-07.png As you can see it's already close off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thanks John... do you have a map or link for comparison? Good to see the radar filling in to the South/SW just a bit. This dance between the primary and coastal is so damn explosive. SREF definitely ticked a hair west with the 06 hr QPF between 6-12 hours compared to the 09z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF definitely ticked a hair west with the 06 hr QPF between 6-12 hours compared to the 09z run. Nice, do you have the totals yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is this closed off already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF definitely ticked a hair west with the 06 hr QPF between 6-12 hours compared to the 09z run. It keeps most of NNJ in the more robust banding for longer periods of time. It has a sharp cut off west of say KMMU and you can see that setting up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is this closed off already? It actually JUST closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Unbelievable. From showing a graphic yesterday morning with 29" for Central Park to 1-3" now? i95 south of trenton to philly not nyc...that is a reasonable forecast for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Coastal is absorbing the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Why does radar look so meh, looks like its already going east and it still hasn't changed over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Another bump west on the NAM at 6 hours with the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Why does radar look so meh, looks like its already going east and it still hasn't changed over it will expand once both piece of energies join forces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looking dry in sussex cty? I think there's been a problenm with one of the radars today. I live right on the sussex/morris line & i've seen reports from sussex of mod snow this afternoon. and trust me, we ain't dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it will expand once both piece of energies join forces Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This run is actually going to end up a good bit wetter for most interests here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We're all getting smoked in a few hours per the new NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 guys...on the nam from 4pm until 10pm 1.0 accumulates NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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