earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How are the 850's and 925mb? Have a warm tongue? I can only see 850mb but it doesn't look to get past Asbury Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Solid hit on euro when does it go to snow? how much of the 2'+ is snow (also need to subtract out 12-18Z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1.50+ not all of that is snow. But a good amount is Understood but at this stage the R/S line is retreating south sooner from what I can tell so how much can really be lost to non-snow .1, .2 at most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1.50+ not all of that is snow. But a good amount is Half that snow in Monmouth county guessing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 when does it go to snow? how much of the 2'+ is snow (also need to subtract out 12-18Z) It's hard to figure out. Around hr 12 you go over. Would say close to a inch frozen. That's a guess not anything in stone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Half that snow in Monmouth county guessing ? Around 1.75 liquid but some of that is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can only see 850mb but it doesn't look to get past Asbury Park Where is the precip cut off? How does MMU do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How about Sussex county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going to "guess" that the Euro changes us over at 4 p.m. I'm estimating western LI gets 1.25" of precip as snow, maybe a tad more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Checking in from Staten Island: At work, mostly plain rain with some sleet (95/5) At Home (maybe 3 Miles From Work) it's closer to 50/50 Rain-Snow line must be over me....it was all plain rain after an initial burst of snow at like 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's hard to figure out. Around hr 12 you go over. Would say close to a inch frozen. That's a guess not anything in stone I thought it was 2-3 PM. Nothing more agonizing than waiting for a rain to snow changeover except watching a virga storm before the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How much for KISP? I'm already nearing 1/2" of rain so I'll subtract from the Euro totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone doesn't know it, but thank you EURO for confirming exactly what I was saying at 5 this morning. LOL wheres the met that said 2-4" for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1 inch plus for all of nj. Increased to 1.75 as one travels east. Not all of this is snow keep in mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It looks like the 12Z ECMWF has 14-18" of snow for Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going to "guess" that the Euro changes us over at 4 p.m. I'm estimating western LI gets 1.25" of precip as snow, maybe a tad more. The R/S line is already starting to retreat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I thought it was 2-3 PM. Nothing more agonizing than waiting for a rain to snow changeover except watching a virga storm before the main event. Nothing has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The R/S line is already starting to retreat You'll change over earlier than 4 p.m. NYC east though it's probably around 4 p.m., maybe 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone doesn't know it, but thank you EURO for confirming exactly what I was saying at 5 this morning. LOL wheres the met that said 2-4" for NYC? Not rejoicing until I know for sure how much is lost to rain. If we go over in 2-3 hours how much rain can fall? It's barely anything outside now and not seeing anything that tells me we lose more than .25 of the qpf to rain in the next 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1 inch plus for all of nj. Increased to 1.75 as one travels east. Not all of this is snow keep in mine So if its 1.25" NE NJ and not all snow, then it's not a big increase right ? Around 10-12" here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081750Z - 082145Z SUMMARY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NWD FROM NRN NJ AND SERN NY THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HEAVIEST RATES /2+ INCH PER HOUR/ ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX NEAR THE CNTRL VA COAST AND WITHIN A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS IN PROGRESS FROM NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SNOW RATES WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 0.5 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER LONG ISLAND SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING AS THE WARM NOSE AOB 850 MB BEGINS TO COOL WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE LOW CENTER. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER OFF THE SRN NJ COAST. THIS ZONE OF STRONG FORCING AND MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH TODAY AS THE LEAD IMPULSE INTERACTS WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EJECTS TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL RATES WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE FROM NRN NJ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY EVENING AS ZONE OF ASCENT DEVELOPS NWD AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. THE SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP BANDED STRUCTURES THIS EVENING WITHIN THE NWD DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC ZONE...AND THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE BANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Who thinks Bloomberg must be feeling awesome right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm going to "guess" that the Euro changes us over at 4 p.m. I'm estimating western LI gets 1.25" of precip as snow, maybe a tad more. Nice run indeed. Averaging 12:1 ratios, that gets us well over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So if its 1.25" NE NJ and not all snow, then it's not a big increase right ? Around 10-12" here? It depends on where you're located. It's currently ripping snow here in Ramsey and has been doing so since 9:00AM. ~2.0" already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The R/S is around us somewhere. Im using WeatherTAP and it shows everywhere north of hudson county as snow, and the R/S splitting L.I, north snow, south rain. NYC is right on the line. I'm still raining though in Hudson County so IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not rejoicing until I know for sure how much is lost to rain. If we go over in 2-3 hours how much rain can fall? It's barely anything outside now and not seeing anything that tells me we lose more than .25 of the qpf to rain in the next 3 hours. it's no biggie considering the best lift arrives later on after the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So if its 1.25" NE NJ and not all snow, then it's not a big increase right ? Around 10-12" here? As one travels east in just NJ it becomes 1.75 total QPF from what I understand. Yes not all snow but hard pressed to think that we lose more than .25 to rain in the next 2 hours lol. Heck I doubt we lose more than .1 to rain. Various regions in Jerey are already back to snow from what I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spotswoodXnj Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 switched from sleet to healthy flakes in the last 10 minutes in florham park. mix line must be heading south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The R/S is still well north of Brick, but you are getting into heavy banding so that probably has a role in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What is "SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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