mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where's Joe sobel he knew nyc climate like a book well respected met is he o.k still with accu ,retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 some places in SW CT could have 4-5 inches before the main show starts...I'm at 3 right now I think that the front end dump that is occuring in areas North and West of the city is being downplayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think that the front end dump that is occuring in areas North and West of the city is being downplayed. Absolutely. a day or two ago, we were supposed to be rain for a good chunk of the afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone see latest RAP? Looks like heaviest and here is between 6 and 9 am sat The RAP is showing very heavy snowfall over the Forks late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can someone give me an idea what 287 looks like currently from NY state line south? I am heading south on i87 in Kingston NY right now (just stopped off for lunch? Am I screwed by the time I get down there? Heading back to Bucks county. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don, one thing I've always noticed however with the GFS is that it tends to struggle with showing with precip fields/maxes. Is that an issue with resolution? Is it simply better to use in looking at things "synoptically"? DTK might be able to answer that, as I don't have sufficient expertise to comment on that issue. If I recall correctly, in general, models do better in forecasting the 500 mb pattern than they do with forecasting qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC mesoscale has her down to 993 and the minimum pressure is probably actually lower than that. If you follow the greatest pressure drops you can see that the center looks to pass only 50-75 miles SW of ACY WHAT THE HECK IS UP WITH THAT 1012 LOW OVER SW VA? Cold air damming. That causes high pressure to nose down the east slopes of the Apps and create that baggy isobar appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low looks to in the process of bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can someone give me an idea what 287 looks like currently from NY state line south? I am heading south on i87 in Kingston NY right now (just stopped off for lunch? Am I screwed by the time I get down there? Heading back to Bucks county. Thx I'm in Ramsey right near the I-287/I-17 split. It's snowing moderatly here and everything is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The warm tongue is probably caused by the combining 850 lows and other mid level lows. They don't close off in time, creates a warm slot on LI. Correct me if I'm wrong. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Great! Thanks Yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 She is down now to 991 and really bombing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 DTK might be able to answer that, as I don't have sufficient expertise to comment on that issue. If I recall correctly, in general, models do better in forecasting the 500 mb pattern than they do with forecasting qpf. QPF is notoriously difficult to predict (there are so many scales of phenomena involved, dealing with phase change, highly nonlinear nature)....especially with models run at their current resolutions. The GFS effectively has 27 km (ish) horizontal resolution, so a lot of what goes into QPF is parameterized (adding to the difficulty). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Great! Thanks Yanks Same in Oakland - moderate snow, sticking on all surfaces (though I haven't seen the main roads), temps below freezing. Watch out on I-287 between Oakland and Wanaque; there's a pretty good incline over the Ramapo Mountains, followed by a long bridge over a river valley. That stretch tends to be very slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 QPF is notoriously difficult to predict (there are so many scales of phenomena involved, dealing with phase change, highly nonlinear nature)....especially with models run at their current resolutions. The GFS effectively has 27 km (ish) horizontal resolution, so a lot of what goes into QPF is parameterized (adding to the difficulty). What's your thinking based off the radar, water vapor lopp and current trends? Does the idea of a track further NW have any merrit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 About 1.5" here in New Paltz so far- Mid-Hudson Valley. Right before it all starts, but in solidarity with everyone in the city. Wish I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 42 degree air temp off sandy hook gusts ene to 37 kts. warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What's your thinking based off the radar, water vapor lopp and current trends? Does the idea of a track further NW have any merrit? Good question, maybe a met could answar. This thing is bombing out and who knows if it will wobble a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense? No. THere may be a lull but once the system phases the fun begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 anyone see QPF on the UKMET...WOW..best that model has shown yet..its in the SNE subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HRRR also picks up the warm tongue. All hi-res models have this now. HRRR has it further east. Depending on where the low and mid level lows combine is where this warm tongue will set up. The NAM drops heavy precip in the warm tongue, completely over running the dynamical cooling effects. Correct if I'm wrong... HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SPC WRF seems about equivalent to the NAM...maybe a hair wetter over East/Northeast NJ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/combined_3h_f09.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense? NO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense? No, the precip will not be ending at 5PM. I was TWC on and they said specifically that they expect precip to change to snow around 5PM for NYC and NJ. I think it will be earlier then that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is anyone worried in nj based off looking at the radar, such at TWC's radar it shows precip over by 5pm in all of NJ does this make any sense?That's the front-end thump. The CCB will expand as the storm continues to phase and bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 WeatherTAP has been the most accurate for the rain and snow line and it is now retreating. Right over S.I-NYC now splitting long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Euro through 6 hours actually looks stronger with the southern stream vorticity, and is definitely wetter at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 some places in SW CT could have 4-5 inches before the main show starts...I'm at 3 right now I agree. I currently have 1.75" and the moderate dBZs for this afternoon haven't even moved into the area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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