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Blizzard of 2013 Forecast Discussion Part II


forkyfork

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This is a New England special.  I think everywhere west of the Hudson will generally under perform, especially NW NJ.  The phase is just a tad late in my opinion.

It's not opinion. The phase was a tad bit late. More snow coming though, even if its only a couple of inches. PA band is now getting tugged into the NYC deform and we should all be ripping again in an hour or so.

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The storm is definitely not a bust. I have 8" here in Westchester with hours of snow to come. I consider 12-18" a MECS here, and 18"+ a HECS. We're guaranteed a MECS in Westchester and may get a HECS. Great stuff!

And I'm right next to you in Tarrytown with about the same. But have you seen the radar? Even TWC just expressed concerns about NYC being dryslotted. I'm a total amateur here, but seems to me that there is ample reason to be concerned right now. The western edge doesn't seem to be filling in as expected. Not saying we're done yet, but I'd like to see what happens over the next hour or so. Want to see what happens with the banding over LI ... and whether it heads west or not. 

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Heavy band has passed Bridgeport CT and is quickly heading west. If this motion continues, Westchester is in for a show in 30-45 minutes.

Great for you up there but down here in Nassau, this is quite the bust. No if's and's or but's.

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Heavy banding over LI and NY is breaking down. Those areas of heavy subsidence are now lifting and we should fill in nicely with 20-25 db bands. Too little too late though.

The main show looks to be heading northeast. Fat lady has begun to sing for Nassau on west. I think even PT/WXOUTLOOKS would agree with this. So close but yet so far. Moving on.

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Eastern PA filling in nicely on radar last few minutes

 

Vivian Brown is a degreed met, unlike some people TWC has on, like Crystal Egger and a former Houston 'met' who got BA degrees and then took the 60 hour AMS certificate class from Miss State.  'Met for non science majors'.  Mostly about working the green screen, loading graphics, planning a TV weather cast.

 

You can look up the MSU 60 hour certificate class on the internet.  Much of it can be taken online, only takes about a semester on campus.

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The main show looks to be heading northeast. Fat lady has begun to sing for Nassau on west. I think even PT/WXOUTLOOKS would agree with this. So close but yet so far. Moving on.

I do agree. The phase up was too late and the southern system moved way too fast to allow for what most of the better models' solutions to work out. But this is not yet over, but there is hardly any way that it can live up to it's potential of 12-20". Most of Nassau & Queens would be lucky to see 6" at this point and some places may not even get to that. Some parts of eastern Nassau may barely squeeze out 6-8", but I think that's about it. Looking at the radar, it is really deceptive showing moderate to heavy returns over me (Douglaston) and western Nassau sitting rotating around, but looking outside, it does not verify. Very frustrating indeed. Too much dry air pushing in from the west as the coastal low zips out just se of Cape Cod.

WX/PT

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I do agree. The phase up was too late and the southern system moved way too fast to allow for what most of the better models' solutions to work out. But this is not yet over, but there is hardly any way that it can live up to it's potential of 12-20". Most of Nassau & Queens would be lucky to see 6" at this point and some places may not even get to that. Some parts of eastern Nassau may barely squeeze out 6-8", but I think that's about it. Looking at the radar, it is really deceptive showing moderate to heavy returns over me (Douglaston) and western Nassau sitting rotating around, but looking outside, it does not verify. Very frustrating indeed. Too much dry air pushing in from the west as the coastal low zips out just se of Cape Cod.

WX/PT

i cant speak to nassau but i am in queens and have about 4 inches now, so id be shocked not to get to 6.  a lot of queens is doing ok, not great but ok with this storm.

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good discussion but his forecast is based on the NAM and their totals and we know how dubious the NAM is, thats the problem, you can always cut those numbers way back

 

he still has me in the 8-16 inch group.....I mean even if we get the nice banding its 3-6 IMBY

 

I hear ya, the point was we aren't finished yet, people have this wrapped and we still have some to go

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This sub forum has some of the worse posters in the history of weather forums. I'm taking a break after this. It just incredible how self center and annoying some of you can be.

you will be doing one of these next week - ( oh and by the way I am enjoying the non - event )

 

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Interesting watching the MEGA band over LI and CT moving westward. It is amazing how RED it is over CT. Looks like NYC will see a decent storm after all.

Seems like the band is weakening while moving west. Def moderate snow though. Still light sleet in souther nassau.

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euro and nam both had more than 1.0 after 7pm and about 0.5 from 10pm on. It looks like we'll be able to tack that much on and could very well bring a large area to close to 10

 

at 7pm central park was at 2.5. Since about 8 its been snowing 1in/hr so they're probably closing in on 4 or 5  at the park

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The intense snow lasts until about 3am, and you get about 1-1.5" per hour. That gives you 6-9" more on top of a general 2-4" that's fallen in Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau. That verifies a forecast around a foot. 

We're not getting close to an inch an hour.

 

But here's a nice pic:

IMG_0547_zps44df578a.jpg

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