nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I gotta say, the GFS won this storm. We've had about 1.2" total water equiv today, .5" of it snow at a paltry 8:1 ratio, the length of non-frozen precip, the sharp cutoff west of the city, and the weaker northern stream influence all point towards what the GFS has showed since 6z yesterday. I still think we can see a good 2-4" if the snow wraps through later on, but as for the position and strength of the storm, and mid-level dynamics, GFS had it. Huh? No one has seen nearly that much liquid. JFK, NYC, LGA, and EWR have all seen from .45-.75" of precipitation. The initial burst of precipitation (WAA) was always supposed to have a sharp cut-off. It's the deformation band and the phasing that creates the backbuilding where even PHL gets decent snows. We haven't seen that part of the storm yet. Guys, we've got a 980mb low south of LI. This show is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? Are you looking at radar? Have you been listening to the news? NYC was always supposed to get hit OVERNIGHT. Not during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 There is a god, band is really expanding northward and westward now back into Rockland and Bergen Counties. C'mon baby, keep pushing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Dude, most people have only seen .6" QPF...the forecast is for 1.5-2.0" of QPF from most of the models. We haven't seen the CCB line up, and all the news/radio stations were saying the heaviest part of this system was going to be 8pm on for the NYC metro area. I wish we could eliminate the pessimism/trolling in this thread and just let the storm play out. There's a list of people who need to be suspended or banned, and moderators should be getting stricter during a large event and not tolerate this garbage. he says the storm is collapsing on itself, the bands in PA might bring 1-2 inches...he says New England storm...yeah LI too, remember he is a Jersey forecaster so yes obviously you guys into NY state and LI get more but this guy basically wrapped this storm up as run of the mill and all but over. I do not know his name...its Dave something but he talked like he knew something about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 People need to relax. This freak out is ridiculous. The models showed this, the models actually even showed this as rain even. We will be ok, we still have almost 12 more hours to go. When we get into the 2-3" per hour bands later we will all end up doing ok. Chill with the bust comments until the storm is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Are you looking at radar? Have you been listening to the news? NYC was always supposed to get hit OVERNIGHT. Not during the day. I'm not home so I can't see the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Mod snow, 32F, everything white in SE PA. Get ready you NYC guys - the dry-slot over NJ will fill in soon. I'm mildly encouraged by it. We should be able to get at a minimum 1-1.5 in rates and a few hours at the minimum. Considering I have about 4.5 inches, I can't complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I'm not home so I can't see the radar. you don't want to - especially if you just ate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We all knew the bust cries would happen with the progged evolution of this storm. It's very complex but the phase is just completing now, and snow bands are filling in over EPA. Expect the entire area to be filled in w/ snow in an hour or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Mod snow, 32F, everything white in SE PA. Get ready you NYC guys - the dry-slot over NJ will fill in soon. i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot).... but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east. this thing tonight looks like that. simply an observation. not whining. okay.... whining... whatevs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot).... but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east. this thing tonight looks like that. simply an observation. not whining. okay.... whining... whatevs. Jan 2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Dec 2000? no dec 2000 we did well..it was jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 i cant remember the exact storm.... it was a long time ago...... somewhere around 2000, give or take,,,.. (my brain is shot).... but there was significant subsidence in the entire eastern half of NJ, while the western half had hours and hours of snow.... the line finally drifted east and simply fell apart in doing so...... leaving good snow west, little snow east. this thing tonight looks like that. Yeah, I remember that one vividly. I think it was Jan. 25th 2000. Not sure I see that fully happening here. That was a bit of a different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just have a slight feeling the guy from News 12 is going to end up with egg on his face calling this storm already over for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I don't show really any precip over me yet its light-mod snow outside. How does that end up happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hours of snow of varying intensity coming. Grab a brew and enjoy it , Dogfish Head 120 in hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I don't show really any precip over me yet its light-mod snow outside. How does that end up happening? Small flakes, light intensity, low reflectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? H500 and H700 mb were going ENE, then the sfc low joined the party..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ahhhhh the western edge of the precip starts to build east and misses me by literally 5 miles lol. How come it won't keep moving west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 NWS still going 7-11" here tonight additional. Would put totals here at 13-18". Tonight Snow, mainly before 5am. Low around 24. North wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hours of snow of varying intensity coming. Grab a brew and enjoy it , Dogfish Head 120 in hand. 120? Well done sir, well done indeed! 90 minute in hand over here, doing it's job. Really hoping we can ditch some of this dry air in Morris County. Would be nice for locations that have been sitting in the dryslot to pick up at least a few more inches before she kicks out of here tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The storm is definitely not a bust. I have 8" here in Westchester with hours of snow to come. I consider 12-18" a MECS here, and 18"+ a HECS. We're guaranteed a MECS in Westchester and may get a HECS. Great stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 120? Well done sir, well done indeed! 90 minute in hand over here, doing it's job. Really hoping we can ditch some of this dry air in Morris County. Would be nice for locations that have been sitting in the dryslot to pick up at least a few more inches before she kicks out of here tomorrow morning. 90 is nice, but 120 was required for the dryslot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I hate to say this but the current subsidence zone is making me think most of NJ in the dry slot right now ends up with something like the March 1-2, 2009 storm stuck in between two area of snowfall maximas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 But he knows nothing about weather, that's why he's on News 12, its coming, 3...2...........1. as if anyone on here does this guy does have a job at a station that everyone in NJ gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Radar out of Mt. Holly is showing the main band splitting right down the middle almost on the Nassau/Sufolk County line. Western PA band is expanding into Western NJ more than the actual band moving East itself which is really great news. Also precip is making it all the way now down towards Atlantic City. I suspect that the entire thing is filling in. It won't be what New England is getting but the wrap around snows look like they will come in as advertised. I'm predicting a major screw zone for Central Long Island where the bands are splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just awful for nj, what a terrible storm, I can't believe I spent hours tracking it. Not even an inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just awful for nj, what a terrible storm, I can't believe I spent hours tracking it. Not even an inch here. When is the last time you checked the radar? Folks down in south Jersey are starting to report snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Heavy band has passed Bridgeport CT and is quickly heading west. If this motion continues, Westchester is in for a show in 30-45 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongbeerlikely Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 This is a New England special. I think everywhere west of the Hudson will generally under perform, especially NW NJ. The phase is just a tad late in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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