Dosh Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 So what's going on? Bust in metro area ? As for the foot+ totals, yeah. The wraparound snow still may swing through, but west of the city its gonna be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ladies and Gentlemen, I proudly report to you, "The wicked old primary at last is dead!" Pressure is steady at 984, I wonder if the phase temporarily caused the pressure falls to stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 There's a norlun trough coming so if you guys can eek out 4 tonight and another 4 from the norlun that will be better than nothing. The main show is a miss for the city west. When the central mass stuff fills in some half decent bands can rotate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 the guy on News 12 Dave is really having a good discussion on this storm...he is blasting people on social media who put up maps and thinks thats exactly what is going to happen without taking reality of what storms do into the situation. He basically just declared this storm over for most of NJ with perhaps just some lighter snows later. He says the snow will be over for NJ by 2 AM and expects those blizzard warnings to be taken down. He really seems like he knows his stuff. He said this was always New Englands storm. His station never bought into the big hype of big amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Bloomberg was spot on.please don't ever say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 There's a plethora of meso/macro-scale features with this storm - not even taking into account banding, which is common, but the mix/snow line has taken more undulations than I can remember in any storm for the area, and some locations poking radical totals while others very nearby are snow starved - there seems to be no/little linearity to it. Some say the LIE has been the dividing line, I guess we'll see with the final totals tomorrow morning. I have a feeling the reputation for this storm is still being etched in our memory with these neighborhood to neighborhood distinctions (not even a matter of county lines). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 This thread is out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 the guy on News 12 Dave is really having a good discussion on this storm...he is blasting people on social media who put up maps and thinks thats exactly what is going to happen without taking reality of what storms do into the situation. He basically just declared this storm over for most of NJ with perhaps just some lighter snows later. He says the snow will be over for NJ by 2 AM and expects those blizzard warnings to be taken down. He really seems like he knows his stuff. He said this was always New Englands storm. His station never bought into the big hype of big amounts Perhaps with his bold prediction he can move on from News 12 to bigger and better things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I really don't know what to make of it all. Honestly, where the position of the low is now, looks like the further SE track that the GFS had been showing for days. I can not believe I'm saying this but the GFS might have schooled every other model. I'm still going to wait for the bands in PA to come east and see how far back west that the main band makes but it certainly doesn't look good for the home team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 well as they say, ON TO THE NEXT ONE feb 18-19 looks good, But so did this one, so who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I gotta say, the GFS won this storm. We've had about 1.2" total water equiv today, .5" of it snow at a paltry 8:1 ratio, the length of non-frozen precip, the sharp cutoff west of the city, and the weaker northern stream influence all point towards what the GFS has showed since 6z yesterday. I still think we can see a good 2-4" if the snow wraps through later on, but as for the position and strength of the storm, and mid-level dynamics, GFS had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Like I said before, this thread is unreadable. Holy **** I've never seen so many manchilds whine about snow before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? February 2007, January 2008, it's happened before with strong multi-phasing systems like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I really don't know what to make of it all. Honestly, where the position of the low is now, looks like the further SE track that the GFS had been showing for days. I can not believe I'm saying this but the GFS might have schooled every other model. I'm still going to wait for the bands in PA to come east and see how far back west that the main band makes but it certainly doesn't look good for the home team. I have a feeling we are getting screwed tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How in bloody hell has Mt. Holly increased totals over Morris? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Nothing busted yet folks. We all saw this lull coming.....don't call bust yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Starting to pivot back into NE-NJ and the bands from PA slowly (very slowly) progressing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? I think there is a slight chance, albeit very slight, that the band fills in over NJ and surprises everyone, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 its amazing even when Blizzard Warnings are posted for 10 - 14 inches - many of us might end up with the usual inch which will melt in a couple of days - all depends though on what happens to that batch still west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's only 7:20pm guys! We still have the whole night ahead. It still might bust, but at least wait until the morning to call it that or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 its amazing even when Blizzard Warnings are posted for 10 - 14 inches - many of us might end up with the usual inch which will melt in a couple of days - all depends though on what happens to that batch still west of us That's because god hates you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Somehow that mega band out in Suffolk will find a way to pivot south before sharing with Nassau and queens. Looks like Suffolk county north of 25 will steal the show. Could be 12-18 inch disparity between them and Nassau county. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 the guy on News 12 Dave is really having a good discussion on this storm...he is blasting people on social media who put up maps and thinks thats exactly what is going to happen without taking reality of what storms do into the situation. He basically just declared this storm over for most of NJ with perhaps just some lighter snows later. He says the snow will be over for NJ by 2 AM and expects those blizzard warnings to be taken down. He really seems like he knows his stuff. He said this was always New Englands storm. His station never bought into the big hype of big amounts Dude, most people have only seen .6" QPF...the forecast is for 1.5-2.0" of QPF from most of the models. We haven't seen the CCB line up, and all the news/radio stations were saying the heaviest part of this system was going to be 8pm on for the NYC metro area. I wish we could eliminate the pessimism/trolling in this thread and just let the storm play out. There's a list of people who need to be suspended or banned, and moderators should be getting stricter during a large event and not tolerate this garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 They went ahead and re-issued the winter storm warnings as well Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 638 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 .RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WILL MOVE TO NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY SATURDAY. NJZ001-008-010-012>014-090745- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130209T1100Z/ SUSSEX-MORRIS-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH- EASTERN MONMOUTH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...MORRISTOWN...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK 638 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE POCONOS...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN MORRIS COUNTY * TIMING...TREACHEROUS TRAVEL WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING. PREPARE FOR MAJOR TRAVEL DELAYS IN NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY. * VISIBILITY AT TIMES NEAR ONE HALF OF A MILE IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BLOWING AND DRIFTING THE SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && makes no sense ..says north of i-78 but is for Monmouth and Middlesex as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Like I said before, this thread is unreadable. Holy **** I've never seen so many manchilds whine about snow before. I believe you don't understand that for many of the members weather is a hobby. Like any hobby someone might have. People complain when their team loses for example, or when the weather is not good for fishing or whatever makes your hobby not as exciting. You live in NJ and are supposed to get a lot of snow, if you enjoy the weather and doesn't get anything then come to the forums to discuss it. Otherwise leave the forums for the hobbyists and go watch The Weather Channel or your local news if all you want is a simple weather report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Another really bright band is starting to form off of LBI area, not sure if that's going to mean anything for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How can all the models bust like this? how? its not your first time at the rodeo, we have a lengthy list of collossal model busts, its that everyone forgets about them too easily, we need to have a forum where all the big snowstorm model busts can be kept track of because there is virtually one every single year, some worse than others but people do not learn from their mistakes. Models are only models. They are not the end all be all, people need to stop hugging qpf totals especially on the NAM. The weenies have to stop just trumpeting every solution that shows the most snow. the models are not good 10 days out and they are sketchy even a day out. People need to accept that. Forecasters need to forecast with more things in mind than models. There are some great mets who have been bashed recently because they just did not follow what the models were spewing out but put their own thought into it. We need more of them and less of the other ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocd Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 the guy on News 12 Dave is really having a good discussion on this storm...he is blasting people on social media who put up maps and thinks thats exactly what is going to happen without taking reality of what storms do into the situation. He basically just declared this storm over for most of NJ with perhaps just some lighter snows later. He says the snow will be over for NJ by 2 AM and expects those blizzard warnings to be taken down. He really seems like he knows his stuff. He said this was always New Englands storm. His station never bought into the big hype of big amounts Dude, most people have only seen .6" QPF...the forecast is for 1.5-2.0" of QPF from most of the models. We haven't seen the CCB line up, and all the news/radio stations were saying the heaviest part of this system was going to be 8pm on for the NYC metro area. I wish we could eliminate the pessimism/trolling in this thread and just let the storm play out. There's a list of people who need to be suspended or banned, and moderators should be getting stricter during a large event and not tolerate this garbage. This +1000 Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Mod snow, 32F, everything white in SE PA. Get ready you NYC guys - the dry-slot over NJ will fill in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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