forkyfork Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 continue here. the ncep bashing got out of control in the other thread and will not be tolerated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z GGEM is west of the 0z run.\Looks like a foot of snow is a good possibility. Nam,RGEM,GGEM,MM5 agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z GGEM is west of the 0z run.\Looks like a foot of snow is a good possibility. Nam,RGEM,GGEM,MM5 agree. a foot is what upton had all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Even with the warm tongue, the NAM still has 16-24" for us. Strange. Hope that warm tongue doesn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Cool link to monitor the exact position of the storm and OBS/etc http://cimss.ssec.wi...ir_vis_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z GGEM is west of the 0z run.\Looks like a foot of snow is a good possibility. Nam,RGEM,GGEM,MM5 agree. I think its clear the are from E-NJ into NYC will see total precip between 1 and 1.5 inches it'll come down to how much is lost to rain/mixing. Snow pushing south as i type.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 a foot is what upton had all along That's what people should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z GGEM is west of the 0z run.\Looks like a foot of snow is a good possibility. Nam,RGEM,GGEM,MM5 agree. And a tick colder if I was reading Earthlight's post correctly. Brings the snow back to the whole NY metro by 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Cool link to monitor the exact position of the storm and OBS/etc http://cimss.ssec.wi...ir_vis_anim.gif earthlight: what us the reasoning behind that mid level warm tongue on the mm5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And a tick colder if I was reading Earthlight's post correctly. Brings the snow back to the whole NY metro by 21z 3-4pm is the window for when I think most of us flip back to snow. From there we should be good for 12 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Even with the warm tongue, the NAM still has 16-24" for us. Strange. Hope that warm tongue doesn't pan out. Might not be enough to change you back over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 continue here. the ncep bashing got out of control in the other thread and will not be tolerated Thank you, I agree. It is fine to acknowledge that every model has weaknesses and limitations (which they do), but to ignorantly bash something that they have 0 insight to how it actually works is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 continue here. the ncep bashing got out of control in the other thread and will not be tolerated Thank you. IMO, one should not be taking one's frustration concerning the storm's outcome relative to one's expectations out on the GFS (or NCEP). That the GFS showed an unpopular solution for those hoping for a blockbuster snowstorm does not make it a bad model. Whether or not its solution verifies does not mean that what it showed was not a possibility. If one views things probabilistically, the GFS's scenario is certainly one possible outcome and it should be among the factors in shaping one's thinking, unless one has strong evidence for completely discounting it (rare). Phasing is a complex process. Small details concerning the timing and extent of the phasing can have a large impact. Having said that, let's hope that the storm proves a little more generous to the area once the CCB develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3-4pm is the window for when I think most of us flip back to snow. From there we should be good for 12 hrs or so. That's about when the colder air north of the sound drops down with more of a NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I love those turrets of convection exploding northeast of the low. Diabatic heat release FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's what people should expect. Those in the NYC metro/NE NJ who get the higher ratios while in banding will push totals decently beyond a foot with relative ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Cool link to monitor the exact position of the storm and OBS/etc http://cimss.ssec.wi...ir_vis_anim.gif Awesome! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Buoys south of Long Island gusting to tropical storm force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 storms like Feb. 20th 1921 and March 2nd 1914 started as rain but finished as a blizzard...Both had over 2.5" of precipitation and a foot of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I love those turrets of convection exploding northeast of the low. Diabatic heat release FTW. I wouldn't mind being on a nice, sturdy ship on those waters right now. Or at Buoy 44009, which has been down since December, unfortunately. ACK is going to get wild tonight when the center passes nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC mesoscale has her down to 993 and the minimum pressure is probably actually lower than that. If you follow the greatest pressure drops you can see that the center looks to pass only 50-75 miles SW of ACY WHAT THE HECK IS UP WITH THAT 1012 LOW OVER SW VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thank you. IMO, one should not be taking one's frustration concerning the storm's outcome relative to one's expectations out on the GFS (or NCEP). That the GFS showed an unpopular solution for those hoping for a blockbuster snowstorm does not make it a bad model. Whether or not its solution verifies does not mean that what it showed was not a possibility. If one views things probabilistically, the GFS's scenario is certainly one possible outcome and it should be among the factors in shaping one's thinking, unless one has strong evidence for completely discounting it (rare). Phasing is a complex process. Small details concerning the timing and extent of the phasing can have a large impact. Having said that, let's hope that the storm proves a little more generous to the area once the CCB develops. Don, one thing I've always noticed however with the GFS is that it tends to struggle with showing with precip fields/maxes. Is that an issue with resolution? Is it simply better to use in looking at things "synoptically"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 storms like Feb. 20th 1921 and March 2nd 1914 started as rain but finished as a blizzard...Both had over 2.5" of precipitation and a foot of snow... storms do not need to be wall to wall snow to be biggies. In fact as you mentioned several of our 12+ snow events featured either rain to start or changeover to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wind starting to shift http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Still a NNE-ward trajectory. Very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The warm tongue is probably caused by the combining 850 lows and other mid level lows. They don't close off in time, creates a warm slot on LI. Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 some places in SW CT could have 4-5 inches before the main show starts...I'm at 3 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 11:15 AM update from Mt. Holly.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...1115A: NEW GFS CHECKED AND IT CONCURS ON I78 NORTH MOSTLY SNOW INOUR AREA. THE WRAP AROUND IS STILL THERE BUT I THINK I`M GOING TOTRIM AMTS 1-2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA...PENDING THE 3PM SNOWDEPTHS AND RADAR PATTERN. LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH DRY SLOT ANYMORE BUT CIRRUS SEEDING MAY QUIT FOR A FEW HRS LATE THIS AFTN BEFORETHE WRAP AROUND TONIGHT. ITS GOING TO BE SLIPPERY TONIGHT OVERMOST OF E PA AND N 3/4 OF NJ.1030A: R/S LINE NOT BUDGING MUCH A SLIGHT NORTHDRIFT TOWARD I78. HEAVIER PCPN MIXES AND CHANGES BRIEFLY TO SNOWMIDDAY. IF THE PCPN LIGHTENS UP...IT SHOULD GO BACK TO RAIN ALONGAND S OF I78.I ADDED MORE SNOW TO THE WEATHER GRIDS TODAY AND A FASTER CHANGETHIS EVENING BUT NO CHANGE IN ACCUMS SINCE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 30SMIDDAY AND WHILE ACCUM ON GRASS AND CARS...LESS ON PAVEMENT. ANSPS IS POSTED FOR THE CC R/S TRANSITION ZONE.915: LOOKED AT 12Z NAM AND WHILE IT LOOKS MORE REALISTIC AM NOTQUITE SURE HOW WE GET ALL THIS SNOW TONIGHT. NO BIG CHANGE IN THEFCST AT 930AM. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE REGION E OF RTE 206 IN NJWILL GET A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW TODAY BUT FOR EVERYONE IN THEADVY/ WARNING THE MAIN EVENT IS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY 0Z-6Z. ITHINK THE 12Z NAM IS STILL TOO WARM LOOKING AT ITS 12Z TSECTIONSAND SEEING THE CC NOT MOVING NORTH YET FROM ABOUT 20 MI N OF I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 storms do not need to be wall to wall snow to be biggies. In fact as you mentioned several of our 12+ snow events featured either rain to start or changeover to sleet Christmas 02 and April 82 were two of the best in that class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Anyone see latest RAP? Looks like heaviest and here is between 6 and 9 am sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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