ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 lol, The ensembles like NNE next Saturday Lol bout time. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Interesting model diagnostic discussion re this system ... ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANIN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTSTATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING ASURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULFCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM HAS BEEN AT THE SLOWER EDGE OFGUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OFTHE 12Z NAM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE... HOWEVER...THAT THENAM/SREF ARE NOT ALONE IN PRODUCING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THEY HAVESUPPORT OF MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MODEL AS WELL AS ANON-TRIVIAL NUMBER OF ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH A115 KNOT JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH IDAHO THIS MORNING...ASOMEWHAT MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THESOUTHWEST STATES IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE. IN FACT...THE 12Z GFSTRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...LEAVING ONLY THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF OUTAHEAD. THAT is interesting...euro will be pretty huge right now. If it slows down you almost have to think it is game on at least somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Lol bout time. Jeez. Us sickos, We just get 2' but we want more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Us sickos, We just get 2' but we want more It's a disease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think it would funny if the Euro completely blew this one, and the NAM nailed it... Then, on the next, the NAM and the Euro completely blew that one, but the GFS nailed it... and in between all of them, people are relying on the last model type that did the best - wah wah. Anyway, ...SYSTEM REASONING AND OVERALL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS... GUIDANCE OFFERS ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LEAD SYSTEM TRACK AND INTENSITY OUT THROUGH THE SERN/ERN US WED/THU RIGHT AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. COORDINATION WITH HPC SHORT RANGE DESKS SUGGESTS THE ECMWF MAY BETOO FLAT WITH THE SUPPORTING IMPULSE ALOFT GIVEN INITIALSTRENGTH...BUT A RECENT CAMP OF GFS SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER END OFTHE FORECAST SPECTRUM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE GIVEN THE SYSTEM ISSHEARING EASTWARD IN RELATIVELY FLAT FLOW. THIS MAY LIMITSUSBEQUENT NWD LIFT/STRONG DEEPENING AS A WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL LOWTHU. A COMPROMISE LEANING SLIGHTLY HEAVIER ON DEVELOPMENT SEEMSIN ORDER PENDING 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION FAVORSHEAVIER SE US CENTERED RAINS AND SOME WINTER SWATH ON THE NORTHSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro not on board is disturbing for this one Seems like for every storm a different model "wins". Maybe this time the Euro barfs on itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Seems like for every storm a different model "wins". Maybe this time the Euro barfs on itself. Ride the NAM, It looked like it would be a bomb.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 THAT is interesting...euro will be pretty huge right now. If it slows down you almost have to think it is game on at least somewhat. I don't think it will though - I dunno. Maybe. I just get the non-scientific creepy feeling that it will be stubbornly flat, again... The GGEM is even flatter than the 00z run. Neither may mean much, though, in lieu of NCEP's observation of 115kt mid level jet punching south over the Rockies cordillera. If these runs are not seeing it (though it's questionable why that would be with their finite mesh) some correcting would take place in the future. Doesn't make the NAM outright correct either. Basically, the only thing certain is uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Interesting model diagnostic discussion re this system ... ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANIN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTSTATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING ASURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULFCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM HAS BEEN AT THE SLOWER EDGE OFGUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OFTHE 12Z NAM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE... HOWEVER...THAT THENAM/SREF ARE NOT ALONE IN PRODUCING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THEY HAVESUPPORT OF MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MODEL AS WELL AS ANON-TRIVIAL NUMBER OF ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH A115 KNOT JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH IDAHO THIS MORNING...ASOMEWHAT MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THESOUTHWEST STATES IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE. IN FACT...THE 12Z GFSTRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...LEAVING ONLY THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF OUTAHEAD. Not only would it be funny if the NAM wins, it wins with extrapolating from what beyond 84 shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro op? Not even close for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about for the weekend? Not out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it appears the cold air en masse is attenuating some. Even after tomorrow's temporary warm up, the CAA in the backside is much weaker than the cold waves of recent past. Be that as it may, it does offer the 24 to 36 hour lead CAA into the NE that often precedes cyclone's passing through the area. Fwiw, that DGEX model has quite the event from this thing... I highlighted a synoptic pattern back in 2011 February that looks quite similar. 2/2/11-2/6/11. To me it looks like a great analog just shifted southeast with the storm track. What do you think Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It looks like we are back to the days of Gfs fail on every storm. It had a few storms where it did ok on but with Nemo and now this one it's back to the toilet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 we must pray for the euro ens or else this one looks dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is definitely slower with the trough than 00z. Sat/Sun looks more like a far NNE deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Lol bout time. Jeez. Haha we've had around 70" on the season...10-12" in the last event. Solid snow cover since mid December. You make it sound like it hasn't snowed, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Haha we've had around 70" on the season...10-12" in the last event. Solid snow cover since mid December. You make it sound like it hasn't snowed, lol. Lol, nickel and diming to 56" is not fun. I'm watching the weekend system. H144 on the euro is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is definitely slower with the trough than 00z. Sat/Sun looks more like a far NNE deal.Huh? And rain everywhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Huh? And rain everywhere else? yup. slp basically develops/amplifies right over SNE. just what it shows. maybe progressive pattern will come help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Huh? And rain everywhere else? Would you expect anything less? It's been the theme of the season - snow rain snow rain, rinse and repeat. Fortunately we received one heck of a snow storm when the snow came this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Maybe being northwest will be an asset this time then. The MJO cycle doesn't really favor cutters ...FWIW. yup. slp basically develops/amplifies right over SNE.just what it shows. maybe progressive pattern will come help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think everyone is drunk from all this snow. Nobody cares about analogs just what the models show on their little computer screens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The nam is insistent on making this a potential threat. Who knows, perhaps it scores another model coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nam is out in clown range but after this last one, You have to at least look at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12z euro op is a major east coast snowstorm from Va to Maine according to DT. Wtf you guys talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I highlighted a synoptic pattern back in 2011 February that looks quite similar. 2/2/11-2/6/11. To me it looks like a great analog just shifted southeast with the storm track. What do you think Tip? Just checked it out over at the NCEP library - yeah, I cannot say the two evolutions are altogether that different, spatially, but the 2011 era was a more amplified version. I was just noting the sfc pressure pattern is quite weak despite the appeal aloft. The weakening temperature gradients in the lower levels is lowering the cyclogen potential below those dynamics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.