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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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Man I hope the 6zgfs has the correct idea for saturday...........climo is 28" at bdr already 52 inches on the year, just blowing away normality and leading the charge in Steve's return of winter 12-13 campaign, another 3-6 puts this winter in a very special place.

Congrats out east!

Joe did you see my note re the HRRR? Just figured you would find it interesting as I know you like to follow the mesos like me. If we were roger eberting it, 2 thumbs down. For whatever reason it struggled with the event almost bell to bell.

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GON has 8 mile vis -SN in the "death band"....Euro kicked the American's azz again...it was a bit too light to our SW in the PHL/BWI area, but not by a lot. Those runs giving half an inch of qpf there were laughable by NCEP. Euro is on a heater right now. It def wasn't perfect, but we can't achieve that at 72h.

 

I don't want to beat a dead horse but it's also not unreasonable to go back and reassess after the actual event.

 

We got 4" of snow here on about .45" of melted which actually verified some of the NCEP runs pretty well.  I'm 99% certain of both totals having done 3 cores out of curiosity. The ratios were likely similar in other areas meaning it was a general .3 to .5 in this area (5" report over the bridge) which was essentially not all that far off from some of the NAM runs.  The 18z being one of the better yesterday. 

 

Again not by any means perfect but I'd argue superior to the Euro which failed to produce much of anything west of about west Barnstable at any point in the 3 days leading up to the event.  Indeed at 12z yesterday the Euro essentially failed to deliver anything more than trace/slight measurable amounts for almost all of SE New England (more like trace/flurries).  That's a brutal failure in failing to pick up on an advisory level event at 24 hours.  The 0z run last night was barely any better, it totally failed to pick up on the snow band that was setting up along the south coasts over to Cape Cod even as it was already doing so at 0z.  It did the same thing inside of 12 hour leads out in IL/IN/OH yesterday.  By my eye west of about Barnstable it had no more than .03 to .08 last night in areas that got .25 to .5" QPF 6-9 hours later.  Bad.

 

The 18z NAM had a pretty good idea with the band setting up over SE MA, a dry pocket and then the storm snows offshore. Of course it dropped that at 0z and the only model really close (but still too light by 50%) was the GFS which had the little speed bump into SE New England.  RAP really did okay too showing a 2 hour period of good snows.  HRRR was useless.

 

The banding is always going to be a tough signal to nail but the Euro, at least in the public data I saw, never really gave a hint of it in the lead up and kept everything far to the south which is why forecasters from IN to MA ended up busting low on this little event.  JMHO but the problem was likely that little vortmax that was kind of on the north side of the system that kept hauling precip further north.  The precip got eaten over the Apps but as soon as it re-emerged east it helped to draw moisture north in the bar/leaf that formed.  Was a pretty sight on satellite, and radar showed the rotation pretty well as it pivoted right over SE New England last night helping to squeeze out all of the available moisture.

 

Great case study someday.  A draw maybe at best for the Euro, but I'd be hard pressed to take that position.

 

If NOAA peeps are reading this, 4" in South Plymouth and I'm 99.99% sure of it as the photos show :)

 

655 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

   SOUTH SAGMORE          5.0   625 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   OSTERVILLE             4.0   519 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   SANDWICH               4.0   519 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   EAST FALMOUTH          4.0   609 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   NORTH FALMOUTH         4.0   608 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   MARSTONS MILLS         3.5   653 AM  2/14  NWS EMPLOYEE

   SOUTH DENNIS           3.0   500 AM  2/14  GENERAL PUBLIC

   FALMOUTH               3.0   513 AM  2/14  PUBLIC

   WEST FALMOUTH          3.0   514 AM  2/14  PUBLIC

   BREWSTER               2.7   618 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   CENTERVILLE            2.5   603 AM  2/14  NONE

   HYANNIS                2.5   518 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   YARMOUTHPORT           2.0   643 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   WELLFLEET              2.0   615 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   EASTHAM                2.0   602 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   SOUTH HYANNIS          1.5   554 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

   FAIRHAVEN              4.0   551 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   ACUSHNET               3.0   431 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER

   NEW BEDFORD            3.0   549 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   2 NW TAUNTON           0.6   515 AM  2/14  NWS OFFICE

...DUKES COUNTY...

   VINEYARD HAVEN         4.0   616 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   WEST TISBURY           3.5   620 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

   PLYMOUTH               2.0   604 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   HANSON                 1.0   514 AM  2/14  PUBLIC

RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...

   WARWICK                1.4   654 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

   SOUTH KINGSTOWN        3.0   636 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

 

 

EDIT: This is a 12 hour satellite loop, but of course animated GIFs still don't work like it's 1995 here...so...sorry.

 

post-3232-0-07979900-1360855211_thumb.gi

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Def a nice late blooming event for you guys in the SE....you are right Rollo...Euro def did not have that much on the Cape, though it didn't have zero. It had a couple tenths on a few runs. The late bloom def saved the NCEP models a bit from being a total embarrassment, though they were still quite clearly too far NW for most of their runs.

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Def a nice late blooming event for you guys in the SE....you are right Rollo...Euro def did not have that much on the Cape, though it didn't have zero. It had a couple tenths on a few runs. The late bloom def saved the NCEP models a bit from being a total embarrassment, though they were still quite clearly too far NW for most of their runs.

 

Weird storm Will.  The thing with the Euro being so stubborn is nobody self included wanted to believe the radar.  I was in bed when I saw Cpick's post and got up to see the snow....

 

Weird year, we continue to see that every time we think we have models being an outlier/out to lunch there's at least some reason to keep an eye on things.  I doubt this weekend will be any different.

 

Good stuff, good discussion, and thanks Cpick, your posts about the webcams in RI allowed me to enjoy one of the more fun storms of the year.

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haha...so someone did pull a 5 spot. lol. wish i hadn't backed off.

 

I'd say it's legit too. I'm assuming south sagamore is over the bridge.  I've actually never heard it referenced like that.   I'm assuming this is over by the new Market Basket.  It seems very reasonable to me, they stayed in that heavier band for about another 30 minutes after it left here.

 

Here's the latest, few more reports.  Impressive event.

 

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1017 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24

HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION

IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN

SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE

ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...

   SOUTH SAGMORE          5.0   625 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   SANDWICH               4.0   519 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   OSTERVILLE             4.0   519 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   EAST FALMOUTH          4.0   609 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   MARSTONS MILLS         4.0   819 AM  2/14  NWS EMPLOYEE

   NORTH FALMOUTH         4.0   608 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   SOUTH DENNIS           3.0   500 AM  2/14  GENERAL PUBLIC

   BARNSTABLE             3.0   849 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   FALMOUTH               3.0   659 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   WEST FALMOUTH          3.0   514 AM  2/14  PUBLIC

   BREWSTER               2.7   618 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   CENTERVILLE            2.5   603 AM  2/14  NONE

   HYANNIS                2.5   518 AM  2/14  BROADCAST MEDIA

   YARMOUTHPORT           2.0   643 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   HARWICH                2.0   745 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   WELLFLEET              2.0   615 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   EASTHAM                2.0   602 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   SOUTH HYANNIS          1.5   554 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...BRISTOL COUNTY...

   FAIRHAVEN              4.0   551 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   ACUSHNET               3.0   431 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER

   NEW BEDFORD            3.0   549 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   DIGHTON                1.3   845 AM  2/14  NWS EMPLOYEE

   2 NW TAUNTON           0.6   515 AM  2/14  NWS OFFICE

...DUKES COUNTY...

   VINEYARD HAVEN         4.0   616 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   WEST TISBURY           3.5   620 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

   MATTAPOISETT           4.5   746 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   PLYMOUTH               2.0   604 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   MIDDLEBORO             1.3   747 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

   HANSON                 1.0   514 AM  2/14  PUBLIC

RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...

   WARWICK                1.4   555 AM  2/14  MEDIA

   WEST WARWICK           1.2   936 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEWPORT COUNTY...

   MIDDLETOWN (SOUTH)     4.0   843 AM  2/14  NONE

   NEWPORT                2.8   743 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...

   PROVIDENCE             1.0   654 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

   WESTERLY               3.2   227 AM  2/14  TRAINED SPOTTER

   SOUTH KINGSTOWN        3.0   636 AM  2/14  HAM RADIO

 

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It's these things where you steer away from the globals and look to the hi res models, as long as they make sense. This band was placed very well from NAM and RAP VVs and banding tools I use.

 

Where do you get the high res RAP stuff?  All I can find that updates fast is instant and ncep.   It looked to me like for much of its range the RAP had that bump out over SE MA that the NAM had played with.  Never looked at the MM5, HRRR primary stunk, HRRR dev1 has been stuck on the 11th for days.

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messenger nice 4 total.

 

when i realized how far south you were i figured 2 inches for ya, and then as band sat there as i went to bed at 2am i said 3.  but wow at that radar show from 256am.....yellow returns in that band......just a quick crushing down there . absolutely awesome.....it's why i follow storms and radar later into the nite....the S RI webcams lit up fast around 1250 am.....and i did a double take after looking and seeing nothing and then looking and seeing like an inch ...in 20 mins or so.

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messenger nice 4 total.

 

when i realized how far south you were i figured 2 inches for ya, and then as band sat there as i went to bed at 2am i said 3.  but wow at that radar show from 256am.....yellow returns in that band......just a quick crushing down there . absolutely awesome.....it's why i follow storms and radar later into the nite....the S RI webcams lit up fast around 1250 am.....and i did a double take after looking and seeing nothing and then looking and seeing like an inch ...in 20 mins or so.

 

Was fun, like I said if I hadn't checked I'd have slept right through it.  Wiped today though...productivity FTL.

 

Never looking at the nam again

 

MEH, all models kind of sucked with this one.  The weak borderline systems really seem to be giving the models fits this winter.

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