CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The deeper trough on the back side is more interesting. Usually it's a non event when you have a deep trough like that carving out..but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what did the 00z euro ensembles have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I wish that northern s/w was further west or not even there as its giving this one the boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 what did the 00z euro ensembles have? It actually got precip as far north as SNH /SME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I wish that northern s/w was further west or not even there as its giving this one the boot I thought that on this run if the northern s/w was like 12 hours slower we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The deeper trough on the back side is more interesting. Usually it's a non event when you have a deep trough like that carving out..but not impossible.6z was playing around with that. We need a timing change for better things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The deeper trough on the back side is more interesting. Usually it's a non event when you have a deep trough like that carving out..but not impossible.6z was playing around with that. We need a timing change for better things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS is interesting. We have to toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 6z was playing around with that. We need a timing change for better things I just meant that it can acl like a kicker to the initial s/w trough ejecting out of the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Although I'm not sold on any event yet, it does have me interested. After narrowly missing out on history, I'm desperately rummaging through model runs in hope of salvation here. Extreme W MA, E NY, and much of VT missed out on the best forcing in this past storm. Even though it is the NAM, extrapolating it beyond 84 hours could provide an interesting solution and the new GFS is closer, so maybe. The Euro may dash those hopes in a bit, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 seems like this could be a 1-3 or 2-5 deal before another blizzard on PD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 this one is on life support don't like the look at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 this one is on life support don't like the look at 500mb. yeah. Back to c-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The deeper trough on the back side is more interesting. Usually it's a non event when you have a deep trough like that carving out..but not impossible. perhaps some weekend fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I remember with 1/25/2000 it seemed like the digging northern stream to the west sort of caught the southern s/w and slung it right up at the last minute. I just meant that it can acl like a kicker to the initial s/w trough ejecting out of the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 From late this week on the pattern looks unbelievable. We could have a tanking NAO. Active STJ. "Winter is coming" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Unbelievable how whats his name on the East Slope is always just far enough east etc. to catch the heaviest snow. LOL Anyone west of the Berkshire spine got into the more mundane 8-12 inch snowfall the other day. The NAM gets some praise it seems in the bulls eye areas, but it was grossly overdone on qpf again fruther west. This one has eastern NE written on it again probably.... so I'll go into it expecting very little and we manage a little to add to my x country ski trails then that's good. Although I'm not sold on any event yet, it does have me interested. After narrowly missing out on history, I'm desperately rummaging through model runs in hope of salvation here. Extreme W MA, E NY, and much of VT missed out on the best forcing in this past storm. Even though it is the NAM, extrapolating it beyond 84 hours could provide an interesting solution and the new GFS is closer, so maybe. The Euro may dash those hopes in a bit, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z ensembles were west of the op, Got to be some amped up ones in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z ensembles were west of the op, Got to be some amped up ones in there jeff are ens pay only? I never find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Unbelievable how whats his name on the East Slope is always just far enough east etc. to catch the heaviest snow. LOL Anyone west of the Berkshire spine got into the more mundane 8-12 inch snowfall the other day. The NAM gets some praise it seems in the bulls eye areas, but it was grossly overdone on qpf again fruther west. This one has eastern NE written on it again probably.... so I'll go into it expecting very little and we manage a little to add to my x country ski trails then that's good. Agreed. But, things aren't even there yet. If they start moving in that direciton, who knows where/when said trend might stop. Still a couple days away. Regardless of weather events, I refuse to cancel my rescheduled trip to Jackson next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 jeff are ens pay only? I never find them. I have them on SV chris, They are not on the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 lol, The ensembles like NNE next Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it appears the cold air en masse is attenuating some. Even after tomorrow's temporary warm up, the CAA in the backside is much weaker than the cold waves of recent past. Be that as it may, it does offer the 24 to 36 hour lead CAA into the NE that often precedes cyclone's passing through the area. Fwiw, that DGEX model has quite the event from this thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I have them on SV chris, They are not on the NCEP site? Got them, thanks man. I'd be surprised somewhat if the euro didn't come a little west in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro not on board is disturbing for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro not on board is disturbing for this one lets see if that is the case in about a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Interesting model diagnostic discussion re this system ... ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANIN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTSTATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING ASURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULFCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM HAS BEEN AT THE SLOWER EDGE OFGUIDANCE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OFTHE 12Z NAM. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE... HOWEVER...THAT THENAM/SREF ARE NOT ALONE IN PRODUCING A SLOWER SYSTEM. THEY HAVESUPPORT OF MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MODEL AS WELL AS ANON-TRIVIAL NUMBER OF ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. WITH A115 KNOT JET DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH IDAHO THIS MORNING...ASOMEWHAT MORE CLOSED AND SLOWER UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THESOUTHWEST STATES IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE. IN FACT...THE 12Z GFSTRENDED SLOWER AS WELL...LEAVING ONLY THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF OUTAHEAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Unbelievable how whats his name on the East Slope is always just far enough east etc. to catch the heaviest snow. LOL Anyone west of the Berkshire spine got into the more mundane 8-12 inch snowfall the other day. The NAM gets some praise it seems in the bulls eye areas, but it was grossly overdone on qpf again fruther west. This one has eastern NE written on it again probably.... so I'll go into it expecting very little and we manage a little to add to my x country ski trails then that's good. I've been screwed badly this year as the storms are either too far east or west. 11/7, 12/29, and 2/8 were all just too far east for me too really cash in while 12/26 tainted. The other storms were cutters and rain. I feel like I'm living in W NY this winter, not W MA. As of now, I think the VD threat is better for the mid Atlantic and south coast, but I've not given up on it yet. Latitude will probably count more than longitude this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Just keep thinking how after 78 the atmosphere just relaxed and we skunks on big threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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