Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hard to imagine it getting up to you.... Not really..looking at radar. I've spent 0 time on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 just saw the HRRR in the NYC thread-that northern stuff just falls apart in the next few hrs...nothing north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hard to imagine it getting up to you.... Do you think it gets up to our area though? I have 20 miles west on you so that might help, but don't think the difference between me and you/LL will be signficant. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Do you think it gets up to our area though? I have 20 miles west on you so that might help, but don't think the difference between me and you/LL will be signficant. -skisheep tough to say...most models have .01-.08 for us, hard to imagine all of them being THAT wrong--maybe up to 1/2 inch if we're lucky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 tough to say...most models have .01-.08 for us, hard to imagine all of them being THAT wrong--maybe up to 1/2 inch if we're lucky.... True, hard to imagine it being THAT wrong, who knows though. Did they have the banding in PA today, or was that another suprise? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 True, hard to imagine it being THAT wrong, who knows though. Did they have the banding in PA today, or was that another suprise? -skisheep Not sure....looking at radar, the state college band is already drying up-coastal looks to be forming off delmarva-heavy returns down there...transfer may be starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 just saw the HRRR in the NYC thread-that northern stuff just falls apart in the next few hrs...nothing north of NYC HRRR sucks. Meh, was getting an older run for some reason. It doesn't look terrible. It is what it is, it either continues to expand into the region or it dies quickly in the next few hours. I still think there's a glancing blow SE areas later. How much? I'm hoping for a dusting to an inch, as always. Epic stretch of winter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 maybe there's just enuf ridging out ahead of this thing....it wants to go north now in the last few hrs b4 the kicker is really forcing it . it's not like it would be an epic bust for models to be off .10 on the nw edge of precip shield. just ask state college pa. they've prob seen .25-.35 in that 700mb fronto band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 maybe there's just enuf ridging out ahead of this thing....it wants to go north now in the last few hrs b4 the kicker is really forcing it . it's not like it would be an epic bust for models to be off .10 on the nw edge of precip shield. just ask state college pa. they've prob seen .25-.35 in that 700mb fronto band The thing is its a booby trap. Sure the Euro and others have played catch up all day. Several of the NWS used those exact terms. But that doesn't mean it continues post transfer. IE the coastal could kill our chances. KDIX building nicely, and the NW band is still translating across ENE. Was just reading the obs thread, some of those guys got 2+ per hour rates in that band. Good for them. Nice positive bust for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 BTW you can see what should later be the northern edge forming in PA. We'll see how well that translates east. Looking at it, if it stopped now it'd miss to the south aside of maybe all the islands. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ya i would think there is more bust potential in NYC/ SW ct area if that left over area from banding takes longer to fall apart. i think this is entirely more possible. than say hoping it stay together to E CT. prob not gonna happen. wrt coastal transfer the precip shield will crap out , and consolidtate closer to coastal BUT like i said , it is within the realm of being quite possible that the band from C Pa extends E further than prog'd and SE NY and SW ct up thru say DXR actually gets in on 2 inches IMO. i think that is where the bust potential seems like the best chance. and this wouldn't really be a Horrible model bust imo but it is a way the SW ct weenies could smile and have some hope tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 One thing I suggest looking at to signal banding is the 600-500 VVs. This has worked real well in the last three storms. It does not always work, but perhaps the deep moisture content of these srn systems allows it to work better than it would for say, Miller Bs. It has worked awesome so far, nailing the Cincy and State Colleg snows. It targets RI and extreme SE MA later albeit briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lol look at that snow fall apart in PA last 30 mins. yikes... greens and mod snow going going gone. maybe some better ridging ahead of coastal can get some WAA or something going further north than prog'd wrt coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 scott is there anything on the SPC site that we can click on to monitor the 500-600vv's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't believe how good radar looks even for areas up to Pike..Pretty surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 scott is there anything on the SPC site that we can click on to monitor the 500-600vv's No, but twisterdata.com has it for RAP, NAm, an GFS. A good site. Don't forget things tilt to the NW in storms, so strong VVs in one area usually mean areas just NW of this region still get snow. Models really weaken this area and then focus on stuff developing south of SNE some will see if they are wrong or not, shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't believe how good radar looks even for areas up to Pike..Pretty surprising dude look at returns on state college radar, not upton, not albany, not mt. holly, the stuff in C-NE PA fell apart so fast . from light green returns to light blue now in the scope of forty mins. maybe you get a quick 30 mins of snow from the stuff on upton radar movin thru, but E /NE PA stuff just fell apart. no denying that http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=ccx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 dude look at returns on state college radar, not upton, not albany, not mt. holly, the stuff in C-NE PA fell apart so fast . from light green returns to light blue now in the scope of forty mins. maybe you get a quick 30 mins of snow from the stuff on upton radar movin thru, but E /NE PA stuff just fell apart. no denying that http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=ccx&loop=yes Pretty well modeled. HRRR is all over the place, now back with some accumulating snows in SE MA and on LI. Useless. The radar looks good south of Long Island, and there's a nice band west of KOKX too. RAP doesn't allow any of that into the region really until later this evening with the developing low, and even then it's extreme SE Cape and Islands. Worth checking radar periodically but the supposedly superior meso models say this is a dead duck walking. Flat out the radar looks pretty darn good...would appear that stuff clips at least SE areas later, but HRRR/RAP say mainly no. Euro does basically nothing down here too. So what'd you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Any ground truth to the 25-30 dbz in west central CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GREAT job by models, echoes have halted right at the sw ct ny border for over an hour. Looking forward to almost 50 on friday, good luck to the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GREAT job by models, echoes have halted right at the sw ct ny border for over an hour. Looking forward to almost 50 on friday, good luck to the cape. It's going to move into CT. NYC looks like they're about to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's going to move into CT. NYC looks like they're about to get hammered. OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 OK Euro's going to have a big fail...people outside Philly already have 1.5" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GREAT job by models, echoes have halted right at the sw ct ny border for over an hour. Looking forward to almost 50 on friday, good luck to the cape. It's painful to watch, but expected... Hopefully we still get something out of it though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's going to move into CT. NYC looks like they're about to get hammered. What makes you think that it's going to move? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What makes you think that it's going to move? -skisheep The coastal is rapidly taking over-the northern stuff will die out and we'll be in subsidence just north of the main band--LI NYC south look ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro's going to have a big fail...people outside Philly already have 1.5" down. The Euro wasn't great with this system but it probably doesn't matter for SNE. Well, I suppose maybe for SE Cape and ACK if they bang out 2-4 or so tonight because it had miniscule amounts there....but...no denying the NCEP stuff was once again too aggressive in these borderline situations. Nice surprise event from IN through PA and NJ, but not to be here. Can see the returns failing near western LI now as the coastal takes over. That little band in NW CT is what zooms south of Boston later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Over performer down here, snowing huge aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The coastal is rapidly taking over-the northern stuff will die out and we'll be in subsidence just north of the main band--LI NYC south look ok... Yup, going to get screwed again, has been a common theme this winter(See the blizzard, you guys were in SN+ under the death band for 2 hours and I had flurries...) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's going to move into CT. NYC looks like they're about to get hammered. Meh. Radar looks like garbage for CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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