Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs blows outside extreme cape.......has trace amounts and I credit that to its lower resolution which it often does in set ups like this, hopefully bob to cweat and phil can score an inch or two. Time to stick the proverbial fork in this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs blows outside extreme cape.......has trace amounts and I credit that to its lower resolution which it often does in set ups like this, hopefully bob to cweat and phil can score an inch or two. It's a Wide World of Sports storm even here. Thrill of victory or agony of defeat later on. I kind of feel it's a few inches/2-4 or almost nothing even here. We'll see. The banding in PA is impressive, some 35dbz http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=CCX&product=N0R&overlay=01101111&loop=yes It's freaking dumping in that band, check out the webcams. http://511pa.com/Traffic.aspx?Region=Altoona/Southern Alleghenies Region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It's a Wide World of Sports storm even here. Thrill of victory or agony of defeat later on. I kind of feel it's a few inches/2-4 or almost nothing even here. We'll see. The banding in PA is impressive, some 35dbz http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=CCX&product=N0R&overlay=01101111&loop=yes It's freaking dumping in that band, check out the webcams. http://511pa.com/Traffic.aspx?Region=Altoona/Southern Alleghenies Region The only reason I am not giving up is radar returns right now, even down around dc it looks decent and echoes moving northeast not the ene or east often seen in these setups. I hold out hope, regardless there will be no BL issues here overcast and down to 35 with a deep snowpack. I said 2-4 here I shall go down with the ship with that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z latest hrrr is almost a complete whiff for everyone, a huge trend weaker and south all day long WOW The HRRR pretty much sucks so far with this event. I couldn't go back into the range outbound of this event a few hours are missing, but as close as I can get at about 10 hours it was not far enough NW in central/western PA. It may be right, I think it's an intense band of bust. Note how the newest run rakes the islands and parts of the cape are 1-2/2-3 feast or famine. I still think the band ends up NW of what we'd expect but let's see in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The HRRR pretty much sucks so far with this event. I couldn't go back into the range outbound of this event a few hours are missing, but as close as I can get at about 10 hours it was not far enough NW in central/western PA. It may be right, I think it's an intense band of bust. Note how the newest run rakes the islands. look at how bad its busting in central pa right now, according to the obs thread its snowing hard and accumulating quickly, couple nice bands of precip around state college, around harrisburg, and south into metro dc and baltimore and ne from there filling in. I just dont see a complete whiff LOL, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 man, check out pa obs thread, state college area getting it good, I think we are seeing some nice frontogenesis banding associated with a potent s/w that some thought we might see. Pics show monster flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 from 5 to 2-4 to 1-3 to la nada Another win for the Euro? Impressive how it has schooled the Americans the past two storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 look at how bad its busting in central pa right now, according to the obs thread its snowing hard and accumulating quickly, couple nice bands of precip around state college, around harrisburg, and south into metro dc and baltimore and ne from there filling in. I just dont see a complete whiff LOL, who knows. I fear the mountains..or at least the hills The band has just kept chugging all day. It's intense. It doesn't look to be having any problems moving ENE on a trajectory that would get many of us does it die as the coastal kicks off? Beats the crap out of me, but I think the RAP has had the right idea in at least indicating its going to be band -- weak -- band from NW to SE later...somewhere either over SE MA/RI or just OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Another win for the Euro? Impressive how it has schooled the Americans the past two storms. Not sure yet.......euro gives me almost an inch time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Another win for the Euro? Impressive how it has schooled the Americans the past two storms. Euro was pretty bad with this, it had no precip in IN/OH/PA where they have had advisories and accumulations all day. It's not been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I fear the mountains..or at least the hills The band has just kept chugging all day. It's intense. It doesn't look to be having any problems moving ENE on a trajectory that would get many of us does it die as the coastal kicks off? Beats the crap out of me, but I think the RAP has had the right idea in at least indicating its going to be band -- weak -- band from NW to SE later...somewhere either over SE MA/RI or just OTS Well its clear some of the short term models are busting badly in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So the question is, even though the GFS and NAM may have given us more snow for this storm..did they move as far south than the EURO moved north? I think that is a better way to judge a model's performance, rather than the amount of snow in one's backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Another last second WWA just went up for state college area 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I must say radar looks better than expected even for me at bwi. Mix line is closing in on me awfully early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Another last second WWA just went up for state college area 2-4 Check this out, SW between Altoona and State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well the Euro op/ens did bump north a bit for OH/PA from 00z to 12z, but still isn't translating to much for SNE. If that band makes it to the S Coast maybe you guys can pull out an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 based on radar, looks nice, but hard to imagine EVERY model busting....time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Radar looks fantastic almost want to step away and be surprised.........Phil, what do you think? Parts of pa are getting smoked right now, radar looks good out of mt holly and dc heading northeast, lots of positive busts it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only thing I can think of is that as the coastal develops the stuff over PA dies out quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well the Euro op/ens did bump north a bit for OH/PA from 00z to 12z, but still isn't translating to much for SNE. If that band makes it to the S Coast maybe you guys can pull out an inch or two. The euro did much better at 12z.. Still though I don't believe it put down anywhere near what's falling nor is that really a knock on the model as this is a narrow band that's caught every NWS by surprise now almost all day long. The problem is that band won't make it east of the NY/PA line so although it's been interesting to track (we've got virtually nothing else to look at for the next 7+ days). Anything after that would have to come from redevelopment of the system later this evening. I'd put that at about a 65/35 against. I think still it's feast or famine the band manages to set up or it doesn't and it's cirrus. Not very interesting but it's the only shot we've got for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Only thing I can think of is that as the coastal develops the stuff over PA dies out quickly? Yep that's what most models do very soon. Then we're left with a "coastal" that's got too much ocean and not enough coast involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Radar looks really nice, going to sit back and watch it all unfold, who knows, maybe this is the one where the models bust -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well, Tim (allsnow) just report flakes falling in edison. Looks like its about 90 minutes or less from start time unless all that precip in nj heading north just vanishes, its now or never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just looked at OKX radar..It is going to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What of that coastal development is a little later, wouldnt that band hold together enough to hit us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 crazy latest hrrr shows that precip not getting any further north over nj as the coastal takes over, has zero snow across the south coast, zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I just looked at OKX radar..It is going to snow Feet and feet...days and days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I honestly can't see how south of the pike doesn't see an inch of snow tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 coastal take over, everyone gets the shaft? , we shall c. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I just looked at OKX radar..It is going to snow hard to imagine it getting up to you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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