Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DT last call map brings 1 inch to the Pike That's the kiss of death right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 nam still not doing good with the precip in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM still insistent on getting SE MA/ CC with a moderate band. General 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM still insistent on getting SE MA/ CC with a moderate band. General 1-3". Feast of famine maybe Bob. It's actually better for coastal RI, Block over to me. But there's definitely clear signals it's the band on the NW, a gap of lighter stuff and then the storm snows offshore. If we miss that band toastarama. IF someone gets into it probably 2-4 if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feels like I have seen the play a few times this winter, hrrr continues to cut back and move southeast, good luck out on the cape guys hope you can get into that last minute band, flurries would be a win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feast of famine maybe Bob. It's actually better for coastal RI, Block over to me. But there's definitely clear signals it's the band on the NW, a gap of lighter stuff and then the storm snows offshore. If we miss that band toastarama. IF someone gets into it probably 2-4 if not more. You can see the "sucker hole" the NAM creates over ACK due to the MLs. Interesting regardless of outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z 4k NAM continues to look relatively robust for SE areas. Check out the sim radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feels like I have seen the play a few times this winter, hrrr continues to cut back and move southeast, good luck out on the cape guys hope you can get into that last minute band, flurries would be a win here. I think you get suckered as this thing develops offshore. Look at the band the NAM creates on the 4km HiRES stuff. Right along the South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 and..................there we go, upton just lowered amounts, now only a 50% chance of light rain and snow less than a half inch LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I think you get suckered as this thing develops offshore. Look at the band the NAM creates on the 4km HiRES stuff. Right along the South Coast. Yep have seen it happen many times, I would be on the western edge, hope the band materializes for you guys and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 from 5 to 2-4 to 1-3 to la nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 and..................there we go, upton just lowered amounts, now only a 50% chance of light rain and snow less than a half inch LOL if that...we might stay dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For such puny overall snowfall, this thing has a bit of punch verbatim on the NAM. Stong 500mb vort. Closed 700/850 lows. Gonna be watching the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 if that...we might stay dry.... I hope so, because I am the idiot who stays up for a single flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For such puny overall snowfall, this thing has a bit of punch verbatim on the NAM. Stong 500mb vort. Closed 700/850 lows. Gonna be watching the RAP. Bob thats what I have been saying looking at for a couple days, the precip and h7 just look funky, but EVERy model now agrees so it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I hope so, because I am the idiot who stays up for a single flake. after the last event, I ain't staying up for the chance of seeing a flurry--heck even if it were 2-4, I'd be sawing wood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Bob thats what I have been saying looking at for a couple days, the precip and h7 just look funky, but EVERy model now agrees so it is what it is. I think you see like 1/2". "Feast or famine" on this one as Messenger says. Get into that band as it develops and you'll do ok, otherwise, not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 after the last event, I ain't staying up for the chance of seeing a flurry--heck even if it were 2-4, I'd be sawing wood... well its in pretty early that stuff over ohio and pa is not ours anyways and is weakening, its stuff that should develop over nj and to our south that clips us, earlier the models had the primary much weaker, its the other way around hence the suck fest hole and hopeful regeneration to the east. Time for spring, only a couple weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 well its in pretty early that stuff over ohio and pa is not ours anyways and is weakening, its stuff that should develop over nj and to our south that clips us, earlier the models had the primary much weaker, its the other way around hence the suck fest hole and hopeful regeneration to the east. Time for spring, only a couple weeks away. I think the precip gets pulled towards the center once the low is offshore and we see nothing...IMO. Yeah, ready for spring...had my blizzard so if we hit 3/1 and we torch, I'm good with it. I just won't say that to the folks in Philly who are sitting at 4-6 inches YTD...what an amazing difference 150 miles makes some years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18Z RAP likes the LI/S Coast/ CC areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18Z RAP likes the LI/S Coast/ CC areas. Give me hope Roberto........show me some images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Give me hope Roberto........show me some images. I'm only human. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks on track to me overall. 1-3 type of deal for far southern areas. Best bet for 3 out by CHH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Don't think the northern and western stuff over OH matters all that much for SNE relative to what happens overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Don't think the northern and western stuff over OH matters all that much for SNE relative to what happens overnight IMO it does in the sense that it represents a kink in the atmosphere...without it, we have the euro/everything else here later vs the NAM/Raps. Flat east, or a slight tilt up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Upton from 5.9 to 3.3 to 1.8 to .7 for here on their snow maps. Now saying less than 1/2 inch here. Weekend looks dead as well, so looks like 22nd is our next major shot. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Don't think the northern and western stuff over OH matters all that much for SNE relative to what happens overnight Agree. I see most of the stuff overnight for us from the developing low as it moves offshore. Here is the latest RAP which I think is close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 HRRR and even the high res NAM kind of show the point on the top..almost like a weak trough type signal (not really) Without it, slides harmlessly south like the Euro. I think it's a go, the feature coming through OH/PA today looks fine. Should help in getting everything north. BTW, 4km NAm is now a whiff. Its been decent today, whiff NW of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 18z latest hrrr is almost a complete whiff for everyone, a huge trend weaker and south all day long WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs blows outside extreme cape.......has trace amounts and I credit that to its lower resolution which it often does in set ups like this, hopefully bob to cweat and phil can score an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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