Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So what's the euro printing out? The low res maps are tough but you have to be around .1 I'd think. if not .125 or so. The problem is going to be it's mainly that band producing the snows. It'll take the redevelopment to fill in precip to the se of it as it approaches the Jersey coast later....and that's the rub. We will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 i thought the GGem looked pretty good for the south coast and CC It does. The crazy NAM band last night...has me thinking. I mean it's clear to me now what it was trying to do. It was probably wrong, but it will be more interesting if in 5-6 hours we're still looking at an intense band moving across PA. You can see what it was/is trying to do. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130213&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It does. The crazy NAM band last night...has me thinking. I mean it's clear to me now what it was trying to do. It was probably wrong, but it will be more interesting if in 5-6 hours we're still looking at an intense band moving across PA. You can see what it was/is trying to do. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130213&endTime=-1&duration=4 Time will tell.............my 2-4 is going to bust big time here, I always said I loved the look at h7 and that it argued for a good band to the north and west of the low pressure. Hoping for a covering to an inch if the bl allows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On any given day, this band would hit the HFD to BOS on south area pretty good. It bothers me the many models crap this out. The only one sort of hanging on is the RAP....but this tends to be a wee bit overamped. We'll see...it was actually too far SE with the storm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Coochy Coochie coo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro actually has less precip than 0z for nyc not sure about the rest of the area to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On any given day, this band would hit the HFD to BOS on south area pretty good. It bothers me the many models crap this out. The only one sort of hanging on is the RAP....but this tends to be a wee bit overamped. We'll see...it was actually too far SE with the storm last week. the rap is bullish run after run. it'll probably come back to earth...but think this is close enough for 1-3 out here...most by the elbow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I cant see how this does not get people south of the pike http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I can't believe how badly I'm getting owned by Kev...wow. He even dominates KUs now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Not totally writing this off only because I don't see how the radar can have that band and the models be spitting out the QPF that they are. My 2-4" lollies to 5" is going to bust in a bad way, but I think that band still might be able to put down a coating to an inch here, assuming it holds. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 12z euro is less qpf than 0z here down to .08, guess it spread the less than tenth a little further north but cut back overall this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 12z euro is less qpf than 0z here down to .08, guess it spread the less than tenth a little further north but cut back overall this way. where are you getting the .08" from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I can't believe how badly I'm getting owned by Kev...wow. He even dominates KUs now lol Sad when even I have more than you, South of Pike winter but am totally getting that North of Pike end of winter feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sad when even I have more than you, South of Pike winter but am totally getting that North of Pike end of winter feel. Ever since I crushed him in '08 and '09....it's been the Kev dynasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ever since I crushed him in '08 and '09....it's been the Kev dynasty. When will we see this ever again though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When will we see this ever again though? 2 WEEKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When will we see this ever again though? And bust low, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 where are you getting the .08" from? Text soundings from accupro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When will we see this ever again though? Sooner than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Meh worrying about model QPF. Why not look at what's been going on in IN and OH where NWS has been playing catchup all morning based on those same lousy models? They just had to issue a WWA in OH where the Euro had basically nothing just 12 hours ago and very little even at 12z, lol. ".NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...STILL PLAYING CATCHUP THIS MORNING. GETTING REPORTS OF BAND OFSNOW MOVING THRU THE TRI-STATE DROPPING 1 TO 3. ISSUED ADVISORYACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. HAVE IT UNTIL 2 PM IN THE WRN HALF AND 6PM FOR THE E." They got some good banding from Columbus east and south that was pretty well botched by the Euro and others. All we can do is hope that translates. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Missed this gem. LOL .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.ALL MODELS TAKE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NEWENGLAND. THE NAM IS FARTHEST NORTH...AT 39N...WHILE THE GFS ANDECMWF ARE CLOSER TO 38N. THE 03Z SREF IS SOUTH OF THE NAM BUTNORTH OF THE GFS/ECMWF. THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A PAIREDJET STRUCTURE...RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ONE JET LEADING AND LEFT EXITREGION OF THE SECOND TRAILING...BUT MOST OF THIS IS FOCUSED OVERTHE FISH.WE FAVOR THE SOUTHERN GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS PCPN INTO CTDURING THE EARLY NIGHT AND HAS THE HEIGHT OF PCPN AROUNDMIDNIGHT...THEN MOVES PCPN OFFSHORE BY MORNING. QPF IS A BLEND OFTHE NE RFC VALUES AND HPC VALUES. THIS BRINGS AROUND 0.15 INCHESOF QPF TO THE SOUTH COAST AND A NORTHERN EDGE TO MEASURABLE PCPNAROUND THE MASS PIKE. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 1-2 INCHES INPARTS OF EASTERN CT/SRN RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MASS WITHDIMINISHING VALUES TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE CT/RI BORDER HILLSMAY OFFSET THE DIMINISHING VALUES. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE STORM TRACKWOULD POINT TO MAXIMUM PCPN ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SOUTH COASTWATERS...AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 DT last call map brings 1 inch to the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Radar not far off from the 12z NAM forecast. Below image shows how precip is modeled to reach northern PA, but then hits the Apps (as we've seen so many times in the past) and has trouble making it into SNE. Courtesy: PSU Meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 When will we see this ever again though? 34 years and 51 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Radar not far off from the 12z NAM forecast. Below image shows how precip is modeled to reach northern PA, but then hits the Apps (as we've seen so many times in the past) and has trouble making it into SNE. Courtesy: PSU Meteorology It's better than most but I'd argue 3-6 hours it was probably a few miles too south with the heavier band. The mountains will eat that NW shield to some/all extent. The energy will remain though and it appears it's the interaction with the offshore low that the RAP/NAM/NAM4km are picking up on. on those models it's just enough to help lift precip into the region and they all smack SE areas pretty good. It's a pretty good bust so far today in the OH Valley on the right side for a change but that doesn't mean it has to continue east. We'll see, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 34 years and 51 weeks from now. The GFS always shows a big storm at 306,642 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Latest hrrr continues to shift south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Quincy nice catch, I hadn't really looked at the 4km. Mainly because...I figure the 18z should tell the tale one way or the other. At 12-15 the new Euro kills that band. The NAM on the other hand kept enough of a pull north to help enhance precip with the developing low. The result is below. I'd "think" that a stronger/NW presentation that's caught many offices off guard to our west SHOULD bode well east, but maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Latest hrrr continues to shift south and east I figured it'd be worthwhile to see how the HRRR did in IN and OH earlier today at the same time range. It stunk. Where they now have WWA, it gave them nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now or never on the NAM. The system looks pretty decent, just starting to see the shift now east/falling apart of that band in OH. Compromise is probably the smart way to go for the time being, but if the NAM ever were to come in more amped/the same be hard pressed not to buy it. On the road for a bit, hopefully someone can post up the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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