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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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Well, I can't complain lol just had 30 inches of snow.............LOL

True we can't complain, although the 19" here is down to about 7" due to obscene melting, just pointing out that we used to get most of our snow from 2-4/3-6 type of advisory events, in the past years those have all but vanished, even 10/11 was mostly warning events to make up our enormous total.

-skisheep

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Their longterm is 27.8" I believe. 30 year is closer to 26 though they are missing about 8 season's worth of data from 1997-2005.

I believe 97-05 was restored at some point. Officially, BDR has these seasonal totals:

97-98: 8.9

98-99: 19.9

99-00: 13.3

00-01: 55.3

01-02: 8.5

02-03: 64.0

03-04: 49.0

04-05: 57.0

Whether it's complete or correct who knows, but at least they have something in the record books for those seasons.

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I believe 97-05 was restored at some point. Officially, BDR has these seasonal totals:

97-98: 8.9

98-99: 19.9

99-00: 13.3

00-01: 55.3

01-02: 8.5

02-03: 64.0

03-04: 49.0

04-05: 57.0

Whether it's complete or correct who knows, but at least they have something in the record books for those seasons.

 

 

Well that's good to see. Is that on NCDC's site or just the local NWS site?

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True we can't complain, although the 19" here is down to about 7" due to obscene melting, just pointing out that we used to get most of our snow from 2-4/3-6 type of advisory events, in the past years those have all but vanished, even 10/11 was mostly warning events to make up our enormous total.

-skisheep

Be happy you have 7" left. :lol:

 

The snow on the south shore of LI is down to ugly piles for the most part. Hopefully tonight works out more than we expect and we can at least make it look nice again. I hate staring at blackening ice piles.

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Precip definitely tucked north of the Euro.  May not mean much but the good banding has made it up into Columbus.  So far at least the heaviest precip is right on the NW edge of where the Euro had measurable, if not just a little NW of that.

 

Some may do okay later tonight in this band while the rest of us smoke flurries or cirrus.

 

This is just south of Columbus, moved in like a white wall just a bit ago.  Euro forecast totals for this spot were none, best I can tell.

post-3232-0-32350100-1360776699_thumb.jp

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Well that's good to see. Is that on NCDC's site or just the local NWS site?

Those numbers come from ACIS. Since it's a Thread-X station as they call it on the NERCC site, I wonder if they are just using Success Hill to fill in the gaps. There is some BDR proper data in NCDC for that time period,but it appears spotty.

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cool..........12z ggem also almost bone dry.

 

It's a better hit than the 0z.  5mm line is over SE areas/islands of the cape. 

 

No model is going to resolve the details of a band of snow 10-30 miles wide.  If the muff it and it ends up SE we'll watch a nice radar presentation of a whiff skim by with just some snow showers. If they're missing it now and it indeed does continue to run right on the NW edge of where the QPF shield is depicted, it could be a decent little event.

 

 

GGEM 12 hours ago had nothing into Columbus, this run it fringes them.  Hoping we see that ripple east tonight, we're not talking about a ton of miles here.  If the GGEM just skipped north the same amount it did this morning in IN/OH/PA that moves the 10mm line onto parts of the Cape.

Not a prediction, but JMHO it's running north of guidance right now I just don't know if it survives the trip across the mountains.

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So the question has gone from whether upton puts up a watch to if we see a flake in 48 hours :wacko: Seems like every system this winter aside from one has deteriorated rapidly in the last 24 hours.

Oh well, weekend system seems to be a dud as well, 22nd/23rd looks promising though.

 

-skisheep

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Who cares. 

 

The Euro just shifted 75 miles north at 18 hours.  Whoops.  I'm pretty sure it's not bone dry for you too, and it is running too dry already this run.  Playing catchup.

 

Meteorlogy vs modelogy as Kev says.

Those snows out west die as they move into pa, as the secondary takes over.

 

Earlier nam and gfs runs did not have that and kept the primary weak which allowed the ss s/w to amplify quicker giving us more snow, the euro is just meeting the other guidance half way which is usually the case.

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Those snows out west die as they move into pa, as the secondary takes over.

 

Earlier nam and gfs runs did not have that and kept the primary weak which allowed the ss s/w to amplify quicker giving us more snow, the euro is just meeting the other guidance half way which is usually the case.

 

And the euro is still wrong in OH right now.  That feature probably isn't going to "die", JMHO.  It may diminish but it's that feature that gives the best shot of extending precip up into SNE in conjunction to the redeveloping low. It could well miss SE, but time will tell.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_015_sim_radar.gif

 

The NAM may be overplaying it, we'll see, but so far it's been pretty good with the location of the NW extent, if not a smidge too far south even.  Euro...and others not so much and all of them shifted N inside of 12 hours from almost nada to move.  I like that when those same models show the advisory level snows within the same shift range later.

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And the euro is still wrong in OH right now. That feature probably isn't going to "die", JMHO. It may diminish but it's that feature that gives the best shot of extending precip up into SNE in conjunction to the redeveloping low.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_015_sim_radar.gif

The NAM may be overplaying it, we'll see, but so far it's been pretty good with the location of the NW extent, if not a smidge too far south even. Euro...and others not so much and all of them shifted N inside of 12 hours from almost nada to move. I like that when those same models show the advisory level snows within the same shift range later.

So what's the euro printing out?
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