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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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The Euro actually has more precip here .1 compared to the nam at .09 lol..........good times.  Please just get rid of the model.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we get a dusting or less.  NAM and JB FTL.   Euro is king as usual...oh well...at least the kids will get 2 full days of school this week (fri is a holiday)

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Ens were dry too. Maybe a weenie 0.05" around LL but otherwise just a couple of hundredths on the coast.

 

Nam has been on the western envelope on this one off and on for a few days, Euro just held its ground wit not much of anything, I posted in the other thread about saturday as it has some weenie snows up in NNE

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I'm not spending any time on this until later in the day but the Euro hasn't exactly been nailing this so far, it's been too dry, JMHO where it matters for SNE.

 

Looking at the radar it's going to be 30-50 miles too far SE with the band setting up in IN right now, it's not SE of the border in KY, it's NW.   Based on the wunder maps I don't see it dropping more than .05 anywhere, there were several 3 hour tallies over .1.  KHSB is at .17 for the last 6 within that band as it formed.  We will see how it does in the next few hours and probably have a good handle even prior to the 12z Euro.

 

But it is that band that moves ENE across PA and then dries up as it tries to move into SNE.  I think the Euro may have messed that up, let's see.  I think the Euro ramps that up at 12z.  I don't think there's any doubt it's busting in southern IN/OH and KY right now.

 

Might be totally wrong, JMHO.

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RGEM drove the measurable further north inside of 12 hours vs the 0z.  Kind of like I said about that band in IN being a bit more impressive than some of the models had.  After that it still breaks it up, but does now have the 5mm line closer to the CT/RI coast than 12 hours ago...pretty much right on it.   NBD, but we're talking 50 miles difference between something a little better and meh.  Right not it's meh with the caveat that the mid levels look respectable.

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GFS has the band into western PA and then it just goes poof similar to the Euro.  We'll see.  Without it we're hosed.

 

Either way coating/dusting to an inch is my expectation down here.

 

That's probably a good call, I don't see how you get much more unless the nam's right...................lol

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Flurries-1" on the GFS, what a reversal from 24 hours ago. We got a blizzard, but how hard is it to just get a 2-4/3-6" advisory event down here? Literally every single snow we have had down here this winter has been <1" or >18", why can't we just get a run of the mill, normal snowstorm???

 

-skisheep

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i think capecodweeniewx may get advisory out of this, and the coastal ri poster to messenger to bob may have to watch for weenie band but this is pretty much trending toward crap (at least on models) last 15 hours after a slight bump north. SREF's are absolutely useless the way they bob back and forth every 6 hours.

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Absolutely nothing supports uptons snow totals, imagine the waa for the island and 1-3 here will be gone by noon

Yup, back to the same old coating to an inch...

Not sure if the blizzard was a fluke, or we have just been horribly unlucky in that every time there is a nice peice of energy, something screws it up...

 Think it's just our bad luck, since we finally got the southern stream going with the blizzard and that made it what it was.

-skisheep

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Chalk one up in the loss column. Doesn't look like a comeback is in order. No Bruins miracle tonight. Feels like being down by 6 goals with 5 minutes left in the game. Impossible to make up so much. Well hopefully we get the weekend storm. 

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Yup, back to the same old coating to an inch...

Not sure if the blizzard was a fluke, or we have just been horribly unlucky in that every time there is a nice peice of energy, something screws it up...

 Think it's just our bad luck, since we finally got the southern stream going with the blizzard and that made it what it was.

-skisheep

Well, I can't complain lol just had 30 inches of snow.............LOL

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Looks like BOX has picked up on the idea that SE MA may see some enhanced qpf.  Upped totals a bit N.

 

 

i think capecodweeniewx may get advisory out of this, and the coastal ri poster to messenger to bob may have to watch for weenie band but this is pretty much trending toward crap (at least on models) last 15 hours after a slight bump north. SREF's are absolutely useless the way they bob back and forth every 6 hours.

 

 

It'll have to be watched for southern and se areas.  It probably doesn't do much but there's a chance.  There's two narrow weenie bands, one already formed, and one maybe trying to form.   The first is actually pretty intense.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ILN&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=lvx&loop=yes

 

All the other models have that missing, NAM brings it close/over us.  Time will tell.  The rule usually is if the mid levels look okay the "band" sets up a little further NW than modeled.  So who knows.

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Yup, back to the same old coating to an inch...

Not sure if the blizzard was a fluke, or we have just been horribly unlucky in that every time there is a nice peice of energy, something screws it up...

 Think it's just our bad luck, since we finally got the southern stream going with the blizzard and that made it what it was.

-skisheep

no way we see an inch from this...dusting at best.  with light rates, we might not even go below freezing LOL

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