ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 also 12z gfs was way off with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think we see a trend north with this RGEM now north and stronger. Precip makes it to the Pike and a little north even on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah Rolly this is what we thought we'd see It's not the NAM yet, but it's north with the heavy stuff, clips maybe the islands. Couple of inches on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Rgem now has the "death" band to the NW, clips or just misses south and southeast areas. Gives some credibility to the NAM at least in the sense that it's going to be tight. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think this 990mb low as it passes to our southeast will bring snow to Southeast coastal MA and RI. How much, NAM says 5-10". while EURO says little or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Two words, Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How come you think it nailed the blizzard? it didn't nail the blizzard at all. it was horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes this x1000. Today's my first day able to really catch up with weather related stuff. Do people forget what just happened?? Lol This has been a pretty impressive stretch since mid-Jan. very cold period punctuated by a top 5 event on record. What do people want? Lol simple - repeating threats ...unrelenting. I think though that in the after glow of that awesome storm, the GFS touched a nerve by puking out that 960mb, 06z run 2 nights ago. That run really hit at just the perfectly wrong timing, when the guards were all down. I bet the models were flat this whole time the tone in here would actually be better. It "seems" there's an under-current of feeling currently duped, and I think that is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't think it went more than 10 miles NW of it. Way way off. did it even go north of the BM? the last images i saw before my power went out it looked like it was going to tick a few miles S of the BM but i never got to actually see it. regardless...the NAM was atrocious. even after it had it running into CHH, it then had it running just east of ACK and up to east of PVC then doing a loop and heading S then SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Two words, Gulf Stream. Please don't clutter up the threads.. Anyhoo.. weird that the stupid NAM won't let go of this. I hope it verifies for you folks. I will shovel my cirrus while SW CT continues to build it's lead on N ORH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 did it even go north of the BM? the last images i saw before my power went out it looked like it was going to tick a few miles S of the BM but i never got to actually see it. regardless...the NAM was atrocious. even after it had it running into CHH, it then had it running just east of ACK and up to east of PVC then doing a loop and heading S then SE. I don't remember exactly where it went..it may have just went SE..but it definitely was nowhere near what the 12z showed last Thursday..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't remember exactly where it went..it may have just went SE..but it definitely was nowhere near what the 12z showed last Thursday..lol.surface circ passed over the BM, appeared the 7h and 8H were slightly NW until it completely stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO nailed all features except the anomalous mesoforcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 surface circ passed over the BM, appeared the 7h and 8H were slightly NW until it completely stacked. Yeah the 850 and 700 lows were NW. H7 (give or take 50mb) was show nicely on radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Please don't clutter up the threads.. Anyhoo.. weird that the stupid NAM won't let go of this. I hope it verifies for you folks. I will shovel my cirrus while SW CT continues to build it's lead on N ORH county Yeah, the nam is like Arod believing in his own lie. Yeah, I didn't do anything, it's just MLB and the Yankess out to get me. The nam told itself it was going to snow--it's not going to let go-believing in its own lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO nailed all features except the anomalous mesoforcing. That deformation map Chris posted actually had the forcing from CT to MA and into ME. It didn't hit the ferocity of the small area in sctrl CT...but that is tough to figure out. The QPF bomb over LI was the hint for this. I don't have things like deformation plotted to look at, but a crude way of looking for this are trying to see wind vectors in the H7-H5 layer and noting where they are converging. This will then try to push the isotherms together and thus frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We will certainly have our opportunities going forward. None of us can't help what the sensible weather outcome is, but to say this is the same old pattern because two storms that had less then 50% chance of a high impact, miss, is completely false. The January pattern and the pattern going forward couldn't be any different. This is what you want...people bitched about cold and dry, and now they b**ch when for whatever reason they don't see 5 KUs on the GFS op. There is one system after another with this pattern. No they won't all be white...but what do you want? Give me action anyday of the winter instead of cold and dry. If two systems fail SE and then the next one is warmer/west a week from now the net result will be similar to what we've experienced. Substitute the words sensible weather for pattern if it keeps everyones panties from being in a bunch. There's zero doubt the pattern has changed, we've been 40+ for 3 days which didn't happen much during the cold outbreak. It's actually nice out for the first time in a few weeks. I don't want anything, I'm happy with what we had and I think most people feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This thing is going to have a nuke band on the NW side of it. Classic signature I think. If this tickles 20-30 miles north on the GFS, LL to Phil get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If two systems fail SE and then the next one is warmer/west a week from now the net result will be similar to what we've experienced. Substitute the words sensible weather for pattern if it keeps everyones panties from being in a bunch. There's zero doubt the pattern has changed, we've been 40+ for 3 days which didn't happen much during the cold outbreak. I don't want anything, I'm happy with what we had and I think most people feel the same way. Like I said yesterday, it won't be that cold except for this weekend. The cold is not very prevalent, but the cold will probably be enough for some..and the pattern over the next two weeks looks ripe for storms of all kind. Don't forget, I'm talking about New England as a whole. There isn't a doubt that NNE will get snow and you and I will rain for a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This thing is going to have a nuke band on the NW side of it. Classic signature I think. If this tickles 20-30 miles north on the GFS, LL to Phil get nailed. 18z gfs awfully close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes this is going to be awfully close.. 25-50 miles north and southern areas get 5-10" .. huge bust potential at a bad time, if southern ct gets 5-10" tomorrow night after things are finally getting cleared and all mets are forecasting 1-3" , people are going to get really angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We may be waking up to a big hit tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah I wouldnt write this one off yet We may be waking up to a big hit tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes this is going to be awfully close.. 25-50 miles north and southern areas get 5-10" .. huge bust potential at a bad time, if southern ct gets 5-10" tomorrow night after things are finally getting cleared and all mets are forecasting 1-3" , people are going to get really angry and more school closings etc....no rest for the weary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 interesting spread on the 15z srefs....either a "big" hit or a complete whiff for SE areas. not very many scrapes really. most either run the NW edge of the good stuff up and over or just completely keep it out at sea. so you end up with a mean that seems reasonable overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We may be waking up to a big hit tomorrow on your bong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 yeah I wouldnt write this one off yet I have for MBY but not for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 on your bong?Cant deny north trend today sans euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 on your bong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cant deny north trend today sans euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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