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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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Besides the blizzard the euro has had some issues, we toss.

Tossing it? It was good with the clippers where the GFS and the NAM tried to overestimate the QPF, and the EURO had the right idea in not biting,  although this could be a different sort of scenario where it does not do as well. It's discounted, but don't think tossing it completley is a given.

 

-skisheep

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Tossing it? It was good with the clippers where the GFS and the NAM tried to overestimate the QPF, and the EURO had the right idea in not biting,  although this could be a different sort of scenario where it does not do as well. It's discounted, but don't think tossing it completley is a given.

 

-skisheep

Much to learn you have young ski master

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:) its a nice piece of energy.....lets see what happens.

waiting and seeing is all we can do, still think a 2-4" deal has a decent chance, as I said in NYC forum inclined to toss the NAM, the northern outlier, and discount/toss the EURO, the southern outlier, and blend the GGEM/UKIE/GFS for 2-4", but can't discount either NAM or EURO at this time. If 18z continues the north trend, will toss the EURO, until then wait and see.

 

-skisheep

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that's boring. that run makes me just want to fast forward to spring.

 

 

I could not agree more, Phil -

 

I don't think at this point in time I could be any more checked out on this 2012-2013 season.     I mentioned this in the other thread, there is a HUGE telec.  signal for warmth now showing up.  Whether we ultimately get anything over the next week or not, it just "feels" dead.   

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You just deflated Kev's :weenie:

 

 

Yeah, we had gained some momentum yesterday with the 12z, and then the 18z runs, but that halted last night at 00z and hasn't really come back. Usually when that happens, you have reached the oscillation phase of the models where the shifts will be relatively minor...down on the south coast, that still may matter in terms of getting something >3"...but for the rest of us, the minor scillations are unlikely to matter much.

 

We'll see, maybe we'll see a drastic change at 00z, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

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