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February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

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euro ....not good. 

 

edit the NW flank just doesn't get any precip going at all.  not much different than 0z gfs (tad south) but qpf sign further S. 

 

in sne we have a saying for runs like these........ :whistle:............we toss.  no really thou ......my hopes are alot more dash'd than they were at 110pm ....but i'll give one more run tommorrow 

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What are you talking about.  The other models showed scrapers at best.  The nam was the oultlier.  Just because the Ukie came a tad north at 12z, that gives credence to the nam?   That's wishcasting and not forecasting-with all due respect.  If anything, it looks to me that the 0z nam is coming into consensus with the other models.

 

Edit-'cause I just realized you were down in Stamford--If by hits, you mean 1-2", then you are correct.  nam was the only bringing warning snows.  Upton way too aggressive.

Not necessarily, GFS at 18z was warning snow, GGEM at 12z was warning snow, and NAM was warning snow. (warning snow being 6" in 12 hours, or .assuming roughly 5" liqui.d) Disagree that it's wishcasting, at 18z when that map came out, the EURO was the outlier in not giving a significant event. The models have backed off, but I think to call that wishcasting is absurd.

 

-skisheep

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Looking more and more like we're going to have to make do with what we have, and hope that system next week doesn't monsoon us.

 

Yesterdays bonus may be all we hang our hat on until maybe some sunday or next weds, Euro gave us some lt snows sunday right now, But sundays is not off the table yet

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2-4 3-6 down here, looking forward to a little refresher, cherish every flake before the torch returns for good in a couple weeks.

Youre still thinking 3-6" is possible down here? Flurries on the GFS, the NAM is 2-4", but what guidance is 3-6"? Unless youre hoping(and I am as well), that this was an overcorrect, and that it trends back north?

-skisheep

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Youre still thinking 3-6" is possible down here? Flurries on the GFS, the NAM is 2-4", but what guidance is 3-6"? Unless youre hoping(and I am as well), that this was an overcorrect, and that it trends back north?

-skisheep

meh, maybe an inch...if that.  Atmosphere is exhausted...after the blizzard of 78-we went snowless the rest of the month...

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meh, maybe an inch...if that.  Atmosphere is exhausted...after the blizzard of 78-we went snowless the rest of the month...

 

LOL, I'd love to hear the scientific explanation for the atmosphere being exhausted?  Please tell.  Nothing anecdotal please.  The Mid-Atlanitc had 2 blizzards in the span of one week back 2 years ago.Feb 5-6 and Feb 9-10.

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LOL, I'd love to hear the scientific explanation for the atmosphere being exhausted?  Please tell.  Nothing anecdotal please.  The Mid-Atlanitc had 2 blizzards in the span of one week back 2 years ago.Feb 5-6 and Feb 9-10.

anything can happen of course.  Just saying that often after a big one it's quiet...Feb 06 is another example.

and with the MJO moving into Phase 3,4,5 in the next few weeks, if we don't get anything next 10-15 days, we're likely done.

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Spiking that ball at the 20 yard line is not a TD,  NAM is on it's own.

 

Dude, the whole time I've thought the best anyone would do is 1-3 on the cape and light snows inland.  I just thought it was interesting that the NAM kept showing the same thing over and over...didn't mean I was sold on an outcome.  I think after the 12z GFS yesterday though I was ready to chuck 2-4 with iso 3-5 (I may have somewhere in this thread) but it's clear now that that is not going to happen.

 

 

From sometime yesterday AM...

 

It has not had anything other than that idea in two days.  Some cycles may have been 4-8 instead of 6-10 I guess.  It will probably be a huge flop lol

 

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