CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM goes from high end advisory(4-6") down here to flurries. Is it the NAM being the NAM, or is it onto something? The fact that it's had it for days now, and is now loosing it, makes me worry. if the GFS trends south i'm inclined to buy the NAM, otherwise it's the NAM being the NAM. Still not what I want to see 2 days out. -skisheep It's BAAAAHHHHHHDDDDDD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 -.- I like the nam depending on the situation, but I never look at it outside of 48 hours. You all could have saved yourselves some false hope. gfs was inconsistent, Euro wasn't biting, how do you hang your hat on the nam at 60+ hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's BAAAAHHHHHHDDDDDD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nam hit its yearly grand slam on the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM is tossed. GFS will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well with regard to locking in on a solution the nam is no euro, we know this. the 6z nam run now becomes important imo, to see if it's a crap run or a trend. but by that time well already have 0z models in. so f the nam for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's BAAAAHHHHHHDDDDDD. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like the nam depending on the situation, but I never look at it outside of 48 hours. You all could have saved yourselves some false hope. gfs was inconsistent, Euro wasn't biting, how do you hang your hat on the nam at 60+ hrs? Not only the GFS, but the GGEM, the GEM, the CMC, the UKIE, and the RGEM(extrapolating), are hits for us. That's more than false hope, and the EURO is not god, although it is a great model, and i'm not convinced until it's onboard for something at least, saying that this threat was false hope is pushing it I think. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll probably get slammed for this, but just throwing this out there: 1993 500mb GFS @ 96hrs In 93 though it looks like the ridge was farther out west so it gave more space for the wave to amplify. Just some pre nightly runs fun. (I might be serious though ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not only the GFS, but the GGEM, the GEM, the CMC, the UKIE, and the RGEM(extrapolating), are hits for us. That's more than false hope, and the EURO is not god, although it is a great model, and i'm not convinced until it's onboard for something at least, saying that this threat was false hope is pushing it I think. -skisheep What are you talking about. The other models showed scrapers at best. The nam was the oultlier. Just because the Ukie came a tad north at 12z, that gives credence to the nam? That's wishcasting and not forecasting-with all due respect. If anything, it looks to me that the 0z nam is coming into consensus with the other models. Edit-'cause I just realized you were down in Stamford--If by hits, you mean 1-2", then you are correct. nam was the only bringing warning snows. Upton way too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Plus this is still 48 hours before it makes it to the east coast so people waving the white flag now on a potent southern shortwave is just not smart to do as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM is actually a shade more amped than the NAM at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Rgem still looks ok. Kinda amped but doesn't go out far enough. See what the rest of the 0z suite does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What are you talking about. The other models showed scrapers at best. The nam was the oultlier. Just because the Ukie came a tad north at 12z, that gives credence to the nam? That's wishcasting and not forecasting-with all due respect. If anything, it looks to me that the 0z nam is coming into consensus with the other models. Edit-'cause I just realized you were down in Stamford--If by hits, you mean 1-2", then you are correct. nam was the only bringing warning snows. Upton way too aggressive. To be fair the gem and gfs give us warning snows as well, euro borderline advisory as well as srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Rachel Frank just said she was riding the Euro, lmao. Save a horse ride Rachel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is coming in flatter. Might be starting to converge a bit here on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Flatter then 18z, Looks weaker some as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Could still be decent for the cape. Everyone else kinda meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still better than the 12z gfs. I really have a hard time believing anything in the off hour runs this far out. If it was inside 36 or even 24 hours I'd give it more attention, but new data is where it's at with these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still better than the 12z gfs. I really have a hard time believing anything in the off hour runs this far out. If it was inside 36 or even 24 hours I'd give it more attention, but new data is where it's at with these models. This is not an off hour run, Which i am sure you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is not an off hour run, Which i am sure you know Hence I said "still better than 12z". Read before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Meh, so we probably had the typical NCEP amped guidance package today. As Will said heading to consensus. Reminds me of how the first storm in the pattern change played out. I'd be excited if I lived on the Islands more, Long, Block, Elizabeths, Marthas and Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hence I said "still better than 12z". Read before you post. No its not, It south of 12z go back and look at the run before you make a comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hence I said "still better than 12z". Read before you post. Easy killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The rgem still has my interest. It's been a decent model with not too many belly flops this winter so far. Not that it couldn't be ready for a swan dive...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ****ty run. Both storms lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Meh, so we probably had the typical NCEP amped guidance package today. As Will said heading to consensus. Reminds me of how the first storm in the pattern change played out. I'd be excited if I lived on the Islands more, Long, Block, Elizabeths, Marthas and Nantucket. Yeah its getting the boot, It would be better if the Northern s/w was non exisistant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ****ty run. Both storms lost. More in line with the EURO. Makes sense. The atmosphere is exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 More in line with the EURO. Makes sense. The atmosphere is exhausted. That has nothing to do with it. Flow is fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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