Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 But I do see a difference in the H5 setup. In 2/6/11 trended so far north in the final 36 hours because the kicker trended quicker and ran out ahead of the southern vort giving it space to amplify more hence amplifying the SE ridge more. This time at H5 we got the kicker behind our southern vort. Hopefully that will save us, but as many people have said today it could easily make this go out to sea as well. I'll attach a link of 2/6/11 the day prior for reference. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0205.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i noticed that "kicker" isn't really moving fast.....seems sorta slow in its movement thru the upper great lakes, agree/disagree. would this cause less of a kick/ more room to amp....of am i off my rocker that it seems slow for a n. stream vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 21z SREFs have arrived. .5" looks same as 15z. .25" line has moved S about 20mi. .1" likes virtually unchanged, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 21z SREFs slid a shade SE with the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Has Kevin tossed DTs 1st guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Has Kevin tossed DTs 1st guess? That map looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Tomorrow this time we will know for sure because the NOAA plane data is going to be fed into the models or is it already in? Don't know when they are in the air, I thought they go up at 0z tonight which was 2 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Has Kevin tossed DTs 1st guess? Dave was about to write a second guess but Kevin abducted him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dave was about to write a second guess but Kevin abducted him. I hope it was a better guess then the one he had for the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I hope it was a better guess then the one he had for the blizzard He has been awful with his maps the past few years. His map shows me getting 3" Wed night, I doubt I get 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 He has been awful with his maps the past few years. His map shows me getting 3" Wed night, I doubt I get 1". Yeah, He has been off for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Tomorrow this time we will know for sure because the NOAA plane data is going to be fed into the models or is it already in? Don't know when they are in the air, I thought they go up at 0z tonight which was 2 hours ago. Tue Feb 12 01:43:44 2013 GMTNOUS42 KWNO 120143ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0138Z TUE FEB 12 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME. OBSERVATIONSAVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31 CANADIAN...70CONUS...11 MEXICAN...AND NO CARIBBEAN STATIONS. IN ADDITION...6DROPSONDES WERE AVAILABLE COURTESY OF A NOAA G-IV WINTER STORMRECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72645/GRB - NO REPORT...FAILED FIRST RELEASE72681/BOI - PART A IS MISSING72632/DTX - REPORT ARRIVED TOO LATE FOR NAM72274/TWC - FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1015876654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278526/SJU - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278970/POS - 1015970200/OME - SHORT TO 899 MB72251/CRP - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 850-798 MB...WET BULB EFFECTHANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM is gonna be south, but nice potent vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, Looks like a scraper, Congrats NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM is flatter. I'm about to throw in the towel for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM is gonna be south, but nice potent vortmax. weird 12z started way south it same exact spot, then ended up being a nice hit.. im not so sure this run will make that north jump like 12z did though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ya it never made it up north.. a good 100 miles further south than 12z, thats two consecutive runs that its trended further south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We need to apologize to ChrisM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We need to apologize to ChrisMsave a horse ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still a decent hit for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 stick a fork in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still a decent hit for the Cape. Ski Truro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 save a horse ride the Euro 1717 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We need to apologize to ChrisM -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM is flatter. I'm about to throw in the towel for here. Here, Let me get that for you............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Eh, NAM. What has been the issue all along is the progressive flow. However, the origins of this are still noteworthy. We'll see what the other guidance does..but it may be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well you knew it couldn't be that easy.. no storm ever is.. 20 bucks all other models come in juiced. and NAM stays dry tomorrow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hey, Its just the Nam being the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM goes from high end advisory(4-6") down here to flurries. Is it the NAM being the NAM, or is it onto something? The fact that it's had it for days now, and is now loosing it, makes me worry. if the GFS trends south i'm inclined to buy the NAM, otherwise it's the NAM being the NAM. Still not what I want to see 2 days out. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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