SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Euro is OTS. Do we toss? Not tossing anything, and the EURO cannot be ignored after the sucess it had with this. Inclined to toss the GFS, but it's been locked into this storm for a few days now, sort of like how the EURO was with this one we just had. Not expecting anything major, but think advisory snow down here is a good possibility. Would expect the EURO to meet the GFS in the middle, and see maybe something like 3-5" down here? My guess is that CT sees low end advisory(2-4") snow from this, but nothing more. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 EC ens must have a few really good members. The op doesn't get measureable into NJ, but the ens have 0.10" up to BML and 0.25" from BDR to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 EC ens must have a few really good members. The op doesn't get measureable into NJ, but the ens have 0.10" up to BML and 0.25" from BDR to BOS. Speak of the devil - NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST SAT FEB 09 2013VALID 12Z TUE FEB 12 2013 - 12Z SAT FEB 16 2013...THE ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD VALID DAYS 4-7 WED-SAT SHOULD PROVE TO BEQUITE ACTIVE WITHIN A LARGE SCALE CONUS MEAN MID-UPPER LEVELTROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM AN AMPLIFIED ERN PAC RIDGE. RIDGEAMPLITUDE SEEMS WELL SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM DEEP STORM DEVELOPMENTTOWARD ALASKA COMMON IN MOST GUIDANCE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVORCOLDEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVER THE INTERIORWEST...SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BY LATE WEEK. TWOPRIMARY SYSTEMS OF INTEREST INCLUDE A WAVE TRACKING NEWD FROM THEGULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A COASTAL LOW ANDLATER AS NRN PAC ENERGY DIGS/AMPLIFIES DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL USLEADING TO A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ERN US STORM BY NEXT WEEKEND.HPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVEBEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM AN EVEN COMPROMISE BLEND OF THE 00 UTCGFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TUE/WED BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE 06UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY NEXT FRI/SAT.WITH THE GULF TO ATLC SFC LOW DURING THE WED-THU TIMEFRAME...RECENT ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SUGGEST A LOW TRACK BETWEENRECENT GFS AND MORE OFFSHORE ECMWF RUNS WITH THE LEADING EASTCOAST LOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. GFS RUNS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED ONTHE NWRN SIDE OF THE FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD THOUGH NOT TO THE POINTOF BEING OUTLIERS RELATIVE TO INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THERELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FLOW CONTAINING THE SUPPORTINGENERGY EJECTING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... AND POSITIVETILT OF THE ESTABLISHED LARGE SCALE MEAN PATTERN...SEEM TO FAVORAN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.UPSTREAM NRN PAC ENERGY SHOULD BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CONUSAROUND WED-THU...THIS MAY END UP BEING A RATHER COMPLEX SYSTEM.TO SIMPLIFY AMID UNCERTAINTY YET STILL MAINTAIN SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTTHREAT...THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS A COMPROMISEMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL US BETWEEN00 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THE LESS NEGATIVE TILTOF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH SEEMS CONSISTENT WITHENERGY DIGGING DOWN FROM THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE POSITION.SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Hmmm....I've always wondered home much a deep snowpack widespread would influence the pattern. Weenie statement but think about past post big dump systems that seemed to dump more. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ride the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Weenie pattern possibly coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 SREF onboard as well according to NYC forum. What's the GGEM and the UKIE have? Right now it seems to be GFS/GEFS/NAM(according to NYC)/SREFS vs EURO ens vs EURO. See some decent poential here for advisory snow IMBY, would not be suprised to see a 4-6" type deal out of this. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 84h nam looks like it would be a big storm. Euro esnembles take it about 100 SE of the BM. Its a threat, but I'd keep it at an outside shot for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 There seems to be validity to the statement that the Northeastern US states sees another snowstorm in the near future. We have several model cycles to look at, but none of them truly with perhaps the exception being the 00z GFS, show true amplification of the upper level trough downstream of a building PNA ridge regime. With the exception of blocking in the North Atlantic showing up in this pattern, the PNA pattern looks favorable for amplification of downstream troughing over the eastern USA. Several areas of guidance looking at operational for this post first. GGEM, shows less amplitude of the eastern US troughing. Now the model seems to have a secondary northern stream disturbance in the flow disrupting the backside amplitude of the eastern us trough where no digging is likely. The lead northern impulse therefore does not dig into the eastern US to close off a mid level low in the northern stream phasing with the southern stream disturbance. The GFS shows this to a degree but amplifies the southern stream and the EURO also shows secondary northern stream impulse riding overtop of the ridge to set up our PD storm. It seems like models are choosing one or the other and not both. Enough amplitude should suffice in the southern stream, but northern stream ridging is lacking between the two disturbances over the northern USA. Therefore I think credence to the second disturbance as being the better system to watch for Northeastern US cyclogenesis sometime in the PD time period. I do not think the system next wednesday will suffice to bring us anything more then cloud cover, but will keep an eye out on the Valentine's Day potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 84h nam looks like it would be a big storm. Euro esnembles take it about 100 SE of the BM. Its a threat, but I'd keep it at an outside shot for now. I was just going to comment on that Will - haha. Yup... And, there is a little innocuous and probably not seen little N stream impulse up there dangling in the eastern Dakotas, and that would also likely get infused... It's like where this last one was a weak southern stream wave with a powerful N stream capture, this next one is a powerful southern streamer with a much weaker N stream counter-part. Anyway, got to watch this because ALL this is inside the NAM's domain already, and whether it is fun to trash the model and is warranted or not, it does tend to do better when it is not reliant on relays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS (so far through 84hr) really seems to like the idea of a storm riding up the coast. Interesting. Looks decently juiced so far this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS (so far through 84hr) really seems to like the idea of a storm riding up the coast. Interesting. Looks decently juiced so far this run as well. ya, as has been discussed, n'rn stream timing will be key for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Markedly worse this run but at least it keeps the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS is worse because the southern stream shortwave rides out ahead of the northern stream disturbance. This needs a perfect phase, watch the GFS blow up that northern stream shortwave as it gets to the Northeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I wish that northern vort wasn't even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 And the GFS lost it, this is another one of those thread the needle situations where everything has to go right and so much can go wrong... Still hopeful for this, being further south might actually be a blessing instead of a curse for this one. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 84h nam looks like it would be a big storm. Euro esnembles take it about 100 SE of the BM. Its a threat, but I'd keep it at an outside shot for now. DGEX does nice things with that 84hr frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 DGEX does nice things with that 84hr frame. Boy does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Boy does it. It also bombs out our PD storm as well over New England, this is another thread the needle with the trough idea, because too far west and amped we all turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I could use a little further west. But with our luck it would cut too much. Looks like a quick thump Monday maybe ...snow/sleet then a little ZR.... It also bombs out our PD storm as well over New England, this is another thread the needle with the trough idea, because too far west and amped we all turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Tim Kelley has the storm in his 7-day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 cool read http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39276-lrc-to-suggest-another-big-storm-next-weekend/ I'd like to see more data behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like the NAM is cooking up a southern stream bomb...so far. Awful to speculate on the 75-84hr nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like the NAM is cooking up a southern stream bomb...so far. Awful to speculate on the 75-84hr nam... NAM would be a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM would be a nuke. It seems to be relatively consistent with the idea of at least sliding something up the coast. I wish the op gfs and euro would come back to the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Feb 06 anyone. Seems to be the top analog IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Another analog for this storm could be 2/5/11, but that cut west of us. The only reason I say this because the synoptic pattern resembles that a couple days prior with a strong midwestern storm like we are seeing tonight and tomorrow for the northern plain states. I'm hoping the result isn't the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I dont think the GFS will look much like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Feb 06 anyone. Seems to be the top analog IMO 1/20/02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 I dont think the GFS will look much like the NAMyeah, but gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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