Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

February 13/14 VD Storm discussion


Bostonseminole

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I didnt' realize how mild it got for a lot of folks until I saw Messenger's (or was it Bob or Phil?)'s comment about gully washers and 45*.  Man, widespread 40's.  Much luckier than I thought I was.  I'd rather have positive gain rather than minimal melt.

 

Yeah torched today here.  43 now.  I'm not complaining, this stuff was so heavy I almost lost a bunch of expensive trees and shrubs.  I was able to debendify a few of them, a couple others are shot.

 

Plus it looked like the tundra ice in my driveway in a few spots.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hopefully it keeps coming north to rain on southern CT and make it a pike north event.  :snowwindow:

Hopefully it dosen't! :) Got screwed in the last one(relativley speaking, 19" is not screwed, although compared to some totals it is), and another 5-8" would go a long way to fixing that problem and freshening everything up here.

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

reading uptons discussion, they seem very confident on 3-6" for NYC metro and my area, suprised they thought that before the 18z GFS, now that the GFS is onboard for that number it makes more sense. if the GFS holds and EURO moves north, even if not to warning criteria, would expect a watch with the morning package.

-skisheep

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess when a model has the SAME thing for two days consecutively (now going toward 3) you have to give it some credence no matter what the model is.  Many laughed for looking at the 84 hr nam (extrapolation and then continuing when it had it in its actual run time) but a model must be sniffing something out when it is the same (more or less) for 12 consecutive runs.  Same thing the euro did last week to an extent, different model.  Obviously the caveats apply lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know ... my experience with these southern stream deals is they tend to go N in time.   I can't count the number of times looking at the FRH grids for 60 hours, and LGA has close to an inch, and BOS has .1, only to have them either be reversed inside of 24 hours, or LGA and LI end up raining.    

 

The west Atlantic ridge may hold and force what ever is conserving that is riding up along its western periphery, to ride that much further NW.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know ... my experience with these southern stream deal is they tend to go N in time.   I can't count the number of times looking at the FRH grids for 60 hours, and LGA has close to an inch, and BOS has .1, only to have them either be reversed inside of 24 hours, or LGA and LI end up raining.    

 

The west Atlantic ridge may hold and force what ever is conserving that is riding up along its western periphery, to ride that much further NW.  

But can this trend as far north as 2/6/11 did?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing is impossible ... but, if it trend a lot NW it would be because the ridge in the SE is overwhelming, in which case it becomes too weak of the system to mean much.  

I'm just afraid since that storm was pegged to hit SNE with a snowfall and then in the final 36 hours trended so far north that it even gave a period of rain all the way up to Lyndon State College. Just hoping that this time we have a bit more confluence to the north and that the kicker makes it progressive enough where that doesn't happen. But definitely I won't be resting easy until inside 24 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...