Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Funny this is so much like the first storm after the pattern change. Euro was slowest, slowly caught up. American models did go overboard for a few runs, ended up being a scraper. We'll see, no PV this time so there's more room. What it really boils down to is that one takes risk if they depend, or become over reliant on one modeling source, if/when they are basing that on past performance. There is some of that - obviously, over the long haul the Euro is the most trust-worthy guidance available. That said, it does from time to time error. The flip side of the same token, the NAM is not ALWAYS wrong. Of course, this has not verified just yet ... just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ok how many miles is it from cape hatteras to (just e of ocean city,md) magellan? Bout 150mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can everyone who made fun of me for my nam comments apologize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ok how many miles is it from cape hatteras to (just e of ocean city,md) magellan? I think he's more a St. Brendan "The Navigator" then a magellan lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I give up how many................. by your post , i figured you knew edit its about 187 from cape hatteras national sea shore to just E of ocean city,md. but who's counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 by your post , i figured you knew its about 192 from cape hatteras national sea shore to just E of ocean city,md. but who's counting No, Its just we have seen significant trends on modeling this year of 500 miles, Not counting, Just watching the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 dry slot , are you still snowing up there today, if so nice! re euro i'm looking forward to see the Euro ENS messenger there is know polar vortex but there is a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 dry slot , are you still snowing up there today, if so nice! re euro i'm looking forward to see the Euro ENS messenger there is know polar vortex but there is a kicker. Yes still snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You always respect southern streams systems' ability to come north...at the same token, this is not a blocky pattern...it wasn't for the HECS (but we lucked out anyway) and still isn't. Definite shot for this one to come more north, but when you have a non-blocky pattern with a kicker, small nuances can easily shoot the storm well south and east. We'll hope this southern stream is juicey enough to to overcome some of the other deficiencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wrong thread but euro not to giddy about the sun threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's on folks. Take amounts up No one's put out amounts yet...at least they shouldn't. Mets on TV chance of should say "chance of accumulating snow Wednesday night, best chance south of the pike" or something to that effect. No one should even mention amounts IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Getting this one to develop stronger and further south will definitely aid in it being west and further north, That is the key, The kicker is the main concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim, the Euro is meh. .05"-0.10" for extreme SNE right now. That's it. 12z GFS is a compromise between it and the amped NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Verbatim, the Euro is meh. .05"-0.10" for extreme SNE right now. That's it. 12z GFS is a compromise between it and the amped NAM.The trend is what s important. Not Qpf. It's come hundreds if miles north in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The trend is what s important. Not Qpf. It's come hundreds if miles north in 24 hours We'll see. Not sure what to think at this point. I'd still play it safe as the northern stream kicker may still push this thing offshore. Still not a great look imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We'll see. Not sure what to think at this point. I'd still play it safe as the northern stream kicker may still push this thing offshore. Still not a great look imo. Still 60 hours out and this isn't a major storm...no need to go crazy issuing amounts yet anyway. I'd tell people we have a shot at some snow, but this could easily miss as well...best shots for plowable south and east and check back in tonight or tomorrow morning for another update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 5 more Euro runs Still thinking minor to whiff up here, but maybe a nice deal for the coastal folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still 60 hours out and this isn't a major storm...no need to go crazy issuing amounts yet anyway. I'd tell people we have a shot at some snow, but this could easily miss as well...best shots for plowable south and east and check back in tonight or tomorrow morning for another update.If things went right it could be a 5-9 inch type storm. Not major but a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still 60 hours out and this isn't a major storm...no need to go crazy issuing amounts yet anyway. I'd tell people we have a shot at some snow, but this could easily miss as well...best shots for plowable south and east and check back in tonight or tomorrow morning for another update. Yep. if history is a guide some of the NCEP stuff either will shortly or already has come in a little bit overamped....and the euro is too flat and will adjust. The middle ground is still NBD. No need to go nuts at this point, wait and see. I do think the Euro being flattest with #1 has an effect on the follow up systems too, or is related to it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looking at 500mb, i wonder how significant the differences in handling that little spoke of energy (over s. end) or just south of james bay is wrt to the storm track . Euro has that spoke of energy/vort moving SE from N lake superior . ( S of james bay by like 200+ miles and sharper), while nam has it north and weaker/flatter. (this energy is well NE of the "kicker" sw) but was wondering if the euro allowing this energy to suppress storm slightly. GFs looks more nam like w this feature as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 "trends" can easily reverse, anyway. Looks interesting, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs squeezed the envelope. 0.5" line moved N. 0.25" line moved N. Spread to the N is gone though. 0.1" line up to VT/NH/ME line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z SREFs squeezed the envelope. 0.5" line moved N. 0.25" line moved N. Spread to the N is gone though. 0.1" line up to VT/NH/ME line. Dry begets dry here, If anything this ones for you guys down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Dry begets dry here, If anything this ones for you guys down south IMO, it always has been a predominantly South Coast threat. SREFs are better for me now but worse for you now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 IMO, it always has been a predominantly South Coast threat. SREFs are better for me now but worse for you now.more likely Route 2 south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Dry begets dry here, If anything this ones for you guys down south Umm didn't you just get 26" of snow? Hardly what I would call dry...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How did the Euro Ensembles look for Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How did the Euro Ensembles look for Thursday?Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles looked similar to the op. Maybe a hair warmer so perhaps a few weenie west members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro ensembles looked similar to the op. Maybe a hair warmer so perhaps a few weenie west members.theyve been farther north well into Sne the whole time so the north trend is def real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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