ChrisM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Will is becoming more interested, I can sense it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks a touch N of the SREFs honestly. This solution actually would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 why did people throw this threat in trash couple hrs ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was just thinking the same thing.. I wouldnt mind seeing this storm slip south of us though way to much clean up going on still Will is becoming more interested, I can sense it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 why did people throw this threat in trash couple hrs ago? Because the one model that we all love, shows nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Because the one model that we all love, shows nothing. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This seems like a realistic map, advisory for southern CT/RI/MA, nice 1-3" for everyone else south of the pike, c-1" for the northern folks. EURO will be telling, if it continues to move north, the GFS/NAM are onto something. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Because the one model that we all love, shows nothing. we love it alright! but honestly, weve seen it adjust north hundreds of miles with a system this year and besides it's stellar performance on sandy and the blizzard, its fallible so w/ that being said....when other models are on the fence wrt advisory...one sref shift south (by models which have been awful this year) doesn't indicate a reversing of a north trend, i'd give the euro 2 more runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 was just thinking the same thing.. I wouldnt mind seeing this storm slip south of us though way to much clean up going on stillLol dude. Who are you kidding? More snow is what we all want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The EURO seems to absolutely nail the HUGE systems from 4-6 days out.. but struggle a bit more with other systems. Just my unscientific observations. It could still nail this system but its still smart to take all guidance into consideration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not biting unless the Euro comes north at 12z. Can't rule out nuisance snows in southern areas, but I wouldn't forecast anything over 1-3" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I would love more snow but would like the first one cleaned up first lol Lol dude. Who are you kidding? More snow is what we all want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Because the one model that we all love, shows nothing. Yeah but NCEP essentially tossed it and went with a 0z UK/ 0z GFS combination. That's kind of telling. Euro will be north eventually. Still maybe just a scraper but the Euro has been the slowest at times in these borderline situations to move things north. Remember in Phil's 3.75" snow deal it was still a HUGE miss at 60 hours (like 500 miles) when the American guidance had come around. EDIT: I have no opinion on this storm other than to not ignore the NAM in favor of the Euro or any other model at this stage. They've all had their moments both doing well and stinking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah but NCEP essentially tossed it and went with a 0z UK/ 0z GFS combination. That's kind of telling. Euro will be north eventually. Still maybe just a scraper but the Euro has been the slowest at times in these borderline situations to move things north. Remember in Phil's 3.75" snow deal it was still a HUGE miss at 60 hours (like 500 miles) when the American guidance had come around. Don't disagree, and I do think the Euro SW bias is in play here to some degree. The longer it takes to eject that s/w out of the SW, the easier it will be for the kicker to suppress this thing. I think a 1-3" deal is what we see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not biting unless the Euro comes north at 12z. Can't rule out nuisance snows in southern areas, but I wouldn't forecast anything over 1-3" yet. Does the UKIE have some decent QPF in N NJ/NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm not biting unless the Euro comes north at 12z. Can't rule out nuisance snows in southern areas, but I wouldn't forecast anything over 1-3" yet. Why? What if the Euro is just completely wrong here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GGEM looks like the Nam. Well north.http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GGEM has trended like 400-500 miles north over the last 2 runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So at this point it's everything except the EURO gives me advisory snow(NAM more), and the EURO flurries/nothing. Not diso****ing the EURO, but if it dosen't shift north at 12z, might start to discount it. Not tossing it, but aside from huge events, it hasn't been perfect, and when everything is against one model it's hard to take the one. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wow at GGEM. EURO and SREFS agree. Not a good thing for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKMET and GGEM coming North raised my interest, if the Euro does then advisory level could be on the table. LI winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKMET and GGEM coming North raised my interest, if the Euro does then advisory level could be on the table. LI winter it is on the table ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If this holds..what a nice score for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Oh boy. Plot thickening quickly. Ukie north signals a Euro move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol dude. Who are you kidding? More snow is what we all want His user name lies. He does not need or want anymore snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS coastal after coastal, Could be fun times the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKMET and GGEM coming North raised my interest, if the Euro does then advisory level could be on the table. LI winter You would be in a better spot then here for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Don't disagree, and I do think the Euro SW bias is in play here to some degree. The longer it takes to eject that s/w out of the SW, the easier it will be for the kicker to suppress this thing. I think a 1-3" deal is what we see. Safe starting point and I agree. I think the Euro is pretty wrong here. This has been an issue with it all winter and why it has suppressed the crap out of many of these systems. I posted the maps in response to someone saying it did well in the Phil/Ackwaves system. It was putrid, the last model aside of the NOGAPS to come north. My guess is you're right it's the s/w thing in the sw which was supposed to be "fixed" but maybe not. GGEM has been excellent in these types of events. I'll take the GGEM/GFS/NAM/UK compromise and go with 1-3 for now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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