Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Good run and rending toward DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks okay....still well south of the 00z run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 3:59 PM, WintersGrasp said: Looks okay....still well south of the 00z run though More northwest of the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Nice run though ! Jersey shore meets warning criteria and ends up with 6-10", DC as well 4-7" and PHL 3-6....about 2-3" here but the potential is there for more of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 3:58 PM, Dsnowx53 said: I went to bed at 9:45 p.m. last night and slept until 10:00 a.m. Needed it badly after several days of being up for 6z runs and 12z runs lol. And yeah this run looks solid, but perhaps the euro is having that shortwave near the international border as a kicker Lol. We track it hard. Had a ton of nights with broken sleep. I vow to get more sleep this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This run is only about 50 miles from being a MECS for LI. We'll have to watch to see if future runs can show the shortwave getting far enough south to yield Gulf convection. That would help with amplification. Still don't love the kicker potential and what the OP Euro is doing, though I have not seen the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Between .40-.50 of precip for the 5 boroughs on that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also looks to be too warm at the surface for Many! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:04 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: Also looks to be too warm at the surface for Many! Lol I don't think so man...this past storm was a bit warm for Long Island too....not warm enough to keep some from getting 30 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm thinking we have a half-decent chance with this-the amplification out West looks fairly healthy and we have enough of a blocking pattern up north (not great but enough), to mean this storm has a good shot at amplifying enough to affect us. Will also have plenty of juice as it's a southern stream low. But it could still get shunted south/east if the kicker gets too much in the way. Quite a ways to go still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Off topic, sorry... But Living in Lynbrook (westernn Nassau off the southern state), where is the closest I can take a drive to today eastward to see first hand the 24" + snow amounts before being stopped by blocked LIE and Sunrise Hgwy roads? Suggestions, directions? ETA's LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:01 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: Between .40-.50 of precip for the 5 boroughs on that run! No it's not. It's .18" of precip and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:01 PM, earthlight said: I just hate biting on the GFS. Been smashed so many times. I wana see the euro ensembles to settle me down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:04 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: Also looks to be too warm at the surface for Many! Look at how cold the 850 temps are and the lack of a primary low to drive warm air in through the mid levels and below. There isn't a huge high pressure dome but we've done well before with less. What falls on that run is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:04 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: Also looks to be too warm at the surface for Many! Its marginal but I think we're cold enough looks like mid-high 30s with mid 20 dewpoints before the system comes in. I have to start buying the GFS somewhat now that we're inside 96 hours, that kicker looks pretty far upstream out there, seems somewhat unlikely that its going to be able to boot this thing out if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 AG3 its not .18 but i agree it is very warm! It is between .25-.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:06 PM, sferic said: Off topic, sorry... But Living in Lynbrook (westernn Nassau off the southern state), where is the closest I can take a drive to today eastward to see first hand the 24" + snow amounts before being stopped by blocked LIE and Sunrise Hgwy roads? Suggestions, directions? ETA's LOL I would take Route 110 north and then 25A east. It's just heaven once you get north of the Northern State or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 3:54 PM, earthlight said: Look at the second vort racing over the international border at 78-84. The wave spacing is pretty crappy but I wonder if the models are hinting at some interaction between the two. If not, it just serves as a kicker. the NAM was even closer with the two vorts....wonder if there can be any interaction/phasing between the two...the fact that the euro isnt even hinting at it keep me skeptical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:08 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: AG3 its not .18 but i agree it is very warm! It is between .25-.50 No. It's .18" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:08 PM, jm1220 said: I would take Route 110 north and then 25A east. It's just heaven once you get north of the Northern State or so. 25A is what road? then how far east from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:10 PM, ag3 said: No. It's .18" for NYC. I was talking about KJFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So much bad information here sheesh. This is advisory snow for us. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:10 PM, sferic said: 25A is what road? then how far east from there? 25A is...25A. the northernmost main road on the island and runs from queens (northern blvd) to orient. anything north of the LIE and east of the nassau/suffolk border should be a good show. our block has still not been plowed btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:13 PM, wolfsheepsheadbay said: So much bad information here sheesh. This is advisory snow for us. Period. Thats pretty close to a repeat of the 1/08 bust, thats only gonna be a decent event if we get into the heavier precip, otherwise its likely just to be an ugly slop event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:13 PM, wolfsheepsheadbay said: So much bad information here sheesh. This is advisory snow for us. Period. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:10 PM, ag3 said: No. It's .18" for NYC. looks like a glancing blow 2 - 4 in interior NJ 3 - 6 or higher east of NYC IF amounts don't get cut by mixing IF Euro starts trending then you will see some NWS forecasts change this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:14 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Thats pretty close to a repeat of the 1/08 bust, thats only gonna be a decent event if we get into the heavier precip, otherwise its likely just to be an ugly slop event. especially with marginal surface temps its not gonna stick right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 .75+ is oh so close. The kicker probably doesn't affect us too much but I feel that to a slight extent it may have flattened things a little last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 On 2/10/2013 at 4:15 PM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: especially with marginal surface temps its not gonna stick right away It looks like it will come in at night at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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