CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 wow, major changes from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_111_precip_p36.gif .50-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is a small storm predicted by the GFS, not the ECMWF yet, so we must wait and see. I see a small chance that it will verify. The ECMWF vs GFS you know who has the better odds of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is a small storm predicted by the GFS, not the ECMWF yet, so we must wait and see. I see a small chance that it will verify. The ECMWF vs GFS you know who has the better odds of winning. The euro was at least 100 miles more northwest than the 0z run so that was a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm surprised more aren't optimistic about this. The gfs may have screwed up somewhat last storm but that does not make it obsolete. The reality is its still one of the best models out there and it's been very consistent with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It may win, but when it predicted the last storm so poorly everyone poo poo it. I guess for this board it is our "good weather friend" I know this is corny, but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It may win, but when it predicted the last storm so poorly everyone poo poo it. I guess for this board it is our "good weather friend" I know this is corny, but true. Perhaps, but the trends are to strengthen the vort and to raise heights a bit more. Also- the models are beginning to weaken some of the energy holding down heights in the northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GEM appears it cannot make up its mind, has 2 sprawled out low centers, also 12 hours or more slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GEM appears it cannot make up its mind, has 2 sprawled out low centers, also 12 hours or more slower... Yeah looks like a weird evolution, precip shield is N of 12z, but overall its undecided on what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It may win, but when it predicted the last storm so poorly everyone poo poo it. I guess for this board it is our "good weather friend" I know this is corny, but true. The ensembles were significantly more amplified than the op-meaning that likely the op was off. It can certainly be suppressed due to the overall progressive pattern, but I see a good likelihood it's a hit as well. And no primary low is the best part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm thinking many of us should still have at least a few inches of snow on the ground as this heads in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ukie is OTS http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Probably some amped members of the GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 For what it's worth. Here's the DGEX though I don't know if this is the very latest run...website is not intuitive and images don't have date stamp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm thinking many of us should still have at least a few inches of snow on the ground as this heads in We will have more than a few inches left. It barely melted today and barely melts any tomorrow either, two days of low 40's & 1 or 2 in the low-mid 30's and .3 inches of rain won't do squat to the snowpack for me to only have a few inches left. It's 19 degrees right now outside pushing as low as 12 (may not verify but we'll see). Guarantee come V-day I still have 8-10 inches on the ground probably more as temps crash Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecasted high and low temps are probably too high with all this snow anyway. 12 tonight was not forecasted before the snowstorm we just had so snowpack doing it's job right now. "Many of us" and "a few" implies that the majority of people here pretty much who all had a foot or more will only have 3-4 inches left by Thursday. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ukie is OTS http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096 Lol less than 2 days before Nemo (yuck I hate saying a name for a snowstorm), the UKIE was hundreds of miles out to sea. Not concerned about the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Lol less than 2 days before Nemo (yuck I hate saying a name for a snowstorm), the UKIE was hundreds of miles out to sea. Not concerned about the UKIE. as hideous as twc naming storms is...... what's even worse is when other outlets perpetuate the horror by using the name too. CNBC kept calling it "nemo" too.... i literally wanted to punch in the face anyone who said "nemo." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro? OTS, nothing into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 OTS, nothing into DC. BOO! BOO! BOO! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 ECMWF 00Z out to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is really flat and has not shown a hit yet for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I said last nite the difference to me was , is AC the mid point or the northern extent. It's going to be the northern extent. The euro is flatter and the GFS wants to go in tht direction. The NAM is is at the edge of its envelope and should not be used here. You can line you re birdcage with the DGEX. To me this has the Mid Atlantic written on it and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 6z GFS is south and surpressed! Flurries and snow showers Into NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 6z GFS is south and surpressed! Flurries and snow showers Into NYC!This is a bit exaggerated. It looks fine. Just barely south.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Definitly more surpressed and seems as if the Kicker is stronger this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If I only had the GFS 4 days out to look at and saw a 996 slp at the mouth of Deleware bay heading ENE , I would say ok. That's an error it's SE bias may be showing. But the EURO wants no part of this and that gives me pause. Last week 4 days out I said the euro thinks ths is coming full bore ignore the GFS so I wana be consistent here. Unless the Euro wants to turn the corner a bit It just may end up bein a flatter solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If I only had the GFS 4 days out to look at and saw a 996 slp at the mouth of Deleware bay heading ENE , I would say ok. That's an error it's SE bias may be showing. But the EURO wants no part of this and that gives me pause. Last week 4 days out I said the euro thinks ths is coming full bore ignore the GFS so I wana be consistent here. Unless the Euro wants to turn the corner a bit It just may end up bein a flatter solution Mostly agree but would be interested in seeing the euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It may win, but when it predicted the last storm so poorly everyone poo poo it. I guess for this board it is our "good weather friend" I know this is corny, but true. so true ! Have to side more with the Euro right now since it performed better then the GFS just a couple days ago.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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