BxEngine Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thru 21 hrs this run looks like dog doo-doo Stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Rgem is now 5-7mm for NYC. Which is right around .25" of precip. While not to the level of the NAM/SREFS, it's still a pretty big bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The RGEM still not budging, it may have ever so slightly shifted the heavy QPF axis 20 miles north but its still generally a miss on any high end advisory snows for NYC but still has some sort of event as most models do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Rgem is now 5-7mm for NYC. Which is right around .25" of precip. While not to the level of the NAM/Srefs, it's still a pretty big bump north. 0.25 is basically a good bet for NYC I think. 1-3/2-4 is my guess with an outside chance of 5, although unlikely. With the bump north in precip we should watch the models, especially through 12z to see if this continues. If the sref's continue to bump precip (which is now 2 straight runs) I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The RGEM still not budging, it may have ever so slightly shifted the heavy QPF axis 20 miles north but its still generally a miss on any high end advisory snows for NYC but still has some sort of event as most models do. The 5mm line is on NYC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snowgoose, I think the EURO being bad within 48 hrs is a myth. Why would a model get worse as it got closer? Wouldn't poor verification early lead to poor verification later? Doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snowgoose, I think the EURO being bad within 48 hrs is a myth. Why would a model get worse as it got closer? Wouldn't poor verification early lead to poor verification later? Doesn't make sense. it might just be a relative thing. It doesn't necessarily mean it has poor verification scores within 48 hours, but all models are relatively good within 48 hours. The separation at 120 between the gfs ukie ggem and euro is probably decent. By 48, I'd venture to guess its nearly non-existent (or small to say the least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snowgoose, I think the EURO being bad within 48 hrs is a myth. Why would a model get worse as it got closer? Wouldn't poor verification early lead to poor verification later? Doesn't make sense. Relative to other guidance, Euro consistently scores higher at all lead times....the difference (at least in the past) was that the spread was higher vs. the other models at longer lead times, which somehow was translated into Euro is "good" at longer lead times but "bad" earlier on.....myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Snowgoose, I think the EURO being bad within 48 hrs is a myth. Why would a model get worse as it got closer? Wouldn't poor verification early lead to poor verification later? Doesn't make sense. Its probably not so much that it gets worse as it is the GFS gets better because the GFS is a U.S. model meant to be run over the lower 48, the GFS' lousy schematics may cause it to be outperformed in the medium range by the better gridded/formated Euro but as you get inside 2 days the GFS "homefield advantage" begins to really takeover and as a result, even though it may be "less talented" its able to score more hits that the Euro cannot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 it might just be a relative thing. It doesn't necessarily mean it has poor verification scores within 48 hours, but all models are relatively good within 48 hours. The separation at 120 between the gfs ukie ggem and euro is probably decent. By 48, I'd venture to guess its nearly non-existent (or small to say the least). Good analysis!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Relative to other guidance, Euro consistently scores higher at all lead times....the difference (at least in the past) was that the spread was higher vs. the other models at longer lead times, which somehow was translated into Euro is "good" at longer lead times but "bad" earlier on.....myth. ya thats what I was saying, more of a relative thing as opposed to a truth. edit: just saw your reply lol...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hmmm. Upton's snow maps just went up on a diagonal line from the very southernmost Nassau/Suffolk border out to the east end. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hmmm. Upton's snow maps just went up on a diagonal line from the very southernmost Nassau/Suffolk border out to the east end. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php echoes pretty much every models increase in precip especially on LI. That line could move even further NW but that remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 24 light mix up into NYC on gfs. This looks to be a pretty wet run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs looks similar at the surface and mid levels as 18z...24 precip is on the doorstep prime vv's in our area. Still gonna be a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 27 light to mod preciep in area. Surface temps are meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 30 looks to he mod snow for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Suprised Upton did not raise totals more aside from LI, not the four inch amounts seen there, but adding another 1/2 inch to an inch onto the other totals is not a bad idea. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 this run is equally as wet as the nam and sref, if not moreso. edit: the 0.5 line is ever so slightly SE but for all intents and purposes its very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 33 some ocean enhancement extends back into metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 27 light to mod preciep in area. Surface temps are meh Temps a problem for even up here, or are we good? It's only out to 24 on NECP, where are you getting 30? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Gfs qpf is pretty close to nam. Perhaps a hair dryer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Never mind, out to 33 now on NECP, my page is slow to refresh. Looks very NAM like, 2-4" lollies to 5" here, about ready to lock it. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Temps a problem for even up here, or are we good? It's only out to 24 on NECP, where are you getting 30? -skisheep Storm vista.Paid site. You get about 1-2 this run. Temps are not a huge issue for you. But If you don't get into heavy preciep, might just be mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 i just dont see the euro scoring a coup here. Consistency wins, and while the euro has been pretty consistent in showing little precip over our area, it has been far from the consistency of either of the gfs/nam/sref. Just a couple runs ago it shifted N almost 200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 how do i change the stations ? Click on a station in the map below the table. 0z GFS a tad drier. 0.5" line just on the south shore where on the 18z GFS, it was on the north shore. Not a dramatic change or anything. 2-4" a good call for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Storm vista. Paid site. You get about 1-2 this run. Temps are not a huge issue for you. But If you don't get into heavy preciep, might just be mix Guess some of that .25"+ goes to mix then, unless ratios are really bad. Looks like about 3" for here per my view if it was all snow, but if we loose some of it to mixing, than 2" could be a possibility. 2-4" I think is reasonable for now for here, if temps continue to look diecy, than cut back to 1-3" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS/NAM has the same ocean enhancement signature for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ace did u comment a 3rd time before a model run was done ? Only to b wrong for a 3 rd time in one day? U knw that's a record right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I would take the NAM's temp profile over the GFS, as it's usually too warm due to its poor resolution. Looks like a decent event becoming more likely along LI and C NJ especially (3-5", 4-6"), maybe NYC and coastal CT as well. Still think this can have room for a minor bump north. The ocean enhancement is quite likely as the low begins to deepen fairly rapidly and throw back more moisture-so a good band or two may develop and sit around for a few hours. But the accumulating snow should last only 6 hours or so I would think. This will be on a tear out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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