mikemurph44 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 DT is 100% wrong about later this week. Potential is certainly there and now with plenty of support. When a model is locked in like this with all other models clearly playing catch up gotta pay attention. After all, same scenario just played out with the euro last week.. Maybe DT will be wrong but no one can say with 100% certainty right now that NYC is getting a snowstorm wednesday into thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 They have all seem to wana come up this yr. some snow, some change but it hasn't been a yr of shunts and it's not like there's and arctic air mass in front of it , and it's confluence will lean on it. So I like it somewhat. Don't knw what precip type. Don't like being in GFS sights 5 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Bold statement with the GFS and Euro Ens... I've been following DT's forecasts since the early 2000's in the ne.wx days... whenever he says no snow north of the mid atlantic, I usually take that as an omen that it IS coming north. Not to mention if you want to know DT's thoughts on a storm, just look at the Euro. It's the only model he uses to base his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Just for fun...the 18z DGEX is a MECS from DC TO NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 . Maybe DT will be wrong but no one can say with 100% certainty right now that NYC is getting a snowstorm wednesday into thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 South and east on this run of the GFS. Looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Have some rest guys. I'm not tracking this. I'll check but I spent 24 hours tracking the last storm. I'll track this on tuesday lol *EDIT* I really do hope DT is right, and the mid atlantic can cash in on this storm, even though it doesn't look ideal. Don't quote me on this but the Feb 17-25 period is looking like nice, even more-so then this storm coming up. I think we all cash in during that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Could b a move towards the euro op. or it's just a little bias Which is fine cause if it's gona correct north and west over the next three days let it have some roon to do so. Euro ensembles been hot hand all yr. if that says no. Then I will think that's the progg. Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS caves to the EURO, still plenty of time though. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I think there's room for correction NW given the synoptics and here's why.PV positioned in NW Canada w/ extension of lower heights down the west side of Hudson's Bay. We don't have a PV or low heights along the Eastern shore of Hudson's Bay or to its east, which is a very positive sign as that is a major suppression indicator. The trough tendency in central Canada means there's room for height rises in SE Canada and the Northeast. The 50-50 low holds the cold and the sern vort potency in itself should be enough to pump heights to its east. I can easily see this trending to a widespread DCA-NYC SECS at least. Maybe not BOS, but who cares about them right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS caves to the EURO, still plenty of time though. -skisheep WEuro ensemble mean is northwest so the Euro will most likely trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 WEuro ensemble mean is northwest so the Euro will most likely trend north. true, and am not ruling this out at all for a nice hit, certianly nothing like what we just saw but a 4-6"/6-8" type of deal is still well within the realm of possiblility. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 ...WITH THE GFS BRINGINGTHE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER BY THURS MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF TREKS ITFURTHER OFFSHORE. ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN STEERING US WRONG LATELY...SOWILL SIDE MORE WITH A ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME Very reasonable approach by Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 ^^ Weenie run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 ...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER BY THURS MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF TREKS IT FURTHER OFFSHORE. ECMWF HAS NOT BEEN STEERING US WRONG LATELY...SO WILL SIDE MORE WITH A ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME Very reasonable approach by Upton For right now absolutley the right call, the EURO has been king with this last storm, so for now it has regained it's seat as number one, but the GFS might be trying to get it back. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 For right now absolutley the right call, the EURO has been king with this last storm, so for now it has regained it's seat as number one, but the GFS might be trying to get it back. -skisheep Horrible strategy. "Horse number 7 won the last race so let's bet 100 grand on him for next week's race." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I would definitely keep an eye on it, it could easily trend further to the north and it wouldn't have to do much to get up here. The potential after this even is quite massive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Horrible strategy. "Horse number 7 won the last race so let's bet 100 grand on him for next week's race." not a fair analogy. the euro didn't score some sort of coup or one-off win. no model is perfect, but once again the euro did what we have seen it do a million times before. how many times must the euro do this before we decide it is the model of choice in that timeframe? it doesn't mean ignore the others. but why not lean towards the most reliable one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS look absolutely ridiculous in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 not a fair analogy. the euro didn't score some sort of coup or one-off win. no model is perfect, but once again the euro did what we have seen it do a million times before. how many times must the euro do this before we decide it is the model of choice in that timeframe? it doesn't mean ignore the others. but why not lean towards the most reliable one? While I agree that the ECMWF has the best verification scores (that is a fact) in the medium range, it's not like it's world's better than the GFS either. Certainly not a large enough difference to discount its solution. So at this point I think the most prudent path is a GFS/Euro compromise which would mean a Mid atlantic hit. However, we're still at D4-5 so changes can occur even on the almighty Euro. Some of the Euro ensembles looked more like the 12z GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 not a fair analogy. the euro didn't score some sort of coup or one-off win. no model is perfect, but once again the euro did what we have seen it do a million times before. how many times must the euro do this before we decide it is the model of choice in that timeframe? it doesn't mean ignore the others. but why not lean towards the most reliable one?The ECM Ens are well inside the operational run, which is a red flag for a more western solution although the GFS has trended east. The ECM was a bit too far west for last night's storm, in any case. This event still has a lot of time to change for better or worse. The pattern looks ripe for an even larger storm around President's Day. That one could lead to this being an historic February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 While I agree that the ECMWF has the best verification scores (that is a fact) in the medium range, it's not like it's world's better than the GFS either. Certainly not a large enough difference to discount its solution. So at this point I think the most prudent path is a GFS/Euro compromise which would mean a Mid atlantic hit. However, we're still at D4-5 so changes can occur even on the almighty Euro. Some of the Euro ensembles looked more like the 12z GFS actually. Looking at the ensembles is certainly fair. Believe me after 29 inches i am not doubting the possibility of a snowstorm, especially in an improved pattern. (not hard to improve on the outgoing pattern, we just got super lucky) I just don't blame them for leaning euro 3-6 days out on anything. I do love the next 2 weeks though for something additional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The ECM Ens are well inside the operational run, which is a red flag for a more western solution although the GFS has trended east. The ECM was a bit too far west for last night's storm, in any case. This event still has a lot of time to change for better or worse. The pattern looks ripe for an even larger storm around President's Day. That one could lead to this being an historic February. We aren't leaving February without another major or historic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS look absolutely ridiculous in the long range. Best look since 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 GFS caves to the EURO, still plenty of time though. -skisheep This is not true, though. The Euro and GFS have "caved" to each other, if you want to put it that way. Momentum is still with the SECS solution until we see how the euro trends later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Horrible strategy. "Horse number 7 won the last race so let's bet 100 grand on him for next week's race." The GFS has bit on alot of systems and lost them 3-4 days out, the EURO has been more consistent. If the GFS has this tomorrow at 0z we can start looking at it more seriously, before then riding the EURO -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is not true, though. The Euro and GFS have "caved" to each other, if you want to put it that way. Momentum is still with the SECS solution until we see how the euro trends later. True, caved is too strong a word to use. It backed off the solution it had earlier though, tried to meet the EURO in the middle. Next 2 days will be important with this system, still think advisory snow is a decent possibility. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm feeling like there's a good chance the NYC hasn't even seen their biggest storm this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm feeling like there's a good chance the NYC hasn't even seen their biggest storm this season I agree. And i mean it in the most non weenie way. This upcoming pattern is for real, even if next week doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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