February 13-14th Potential Winter Storm Threat Discussion

[Isotherm]

I think some in here need to look beyond the verification score plots and actually forecast based upon the current pattern, which in this particular case, favors the more amplified sern vort. I still believe strongly that the American models are portraying the synoptics more accurately and the Euro continues to lag behind on this one. Sure, it nailed the last storm, but I can point to numerous busts throughout this winter (wait for it, here come the huggers to say "but the GFS had more!").

 

The NAM and other mesoscale data this evening suggest a solid deform band will develop somewhere in the DE-SE PA-C/S NJ region probably. Within that zone, a moderate hit of snow is possible. NYC is still in the game as well.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

6-8 hours of snow.

[Allsnow]

Light to mod snow at hr 33

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Nice run tad south of 18z

[TWCCraig]

I think some in here need to look beyond the verification score plots and actually forecast based upon the current pattern, which in this particular case, favors the more amplified sern vort. I still believe strongly that the American models are portraying the synoptics more accurately and the Euro continues to lag behind on this one. Sure, it nailed the last storm, but I can point to numerous busts throughout this winter (wait for it, here come the huggers to say "but the GFS had more!").

 

The NAM and other mesoscale data this evening suggest a solid deform band will develop somewhere in the DE-SE PA-C/S NJ region probably. Within that zone, a moderate hit of snow is possible. NYC is still in the game as well.

 

100% Agree

[Weather Fanatic 97]

Around .40-.50 for NyC and the 5 boroughs nice run

[TWCCraig]

NAM total precip

 

[jm1220]

NAM total precip

 

Very similar to 18z to me.

[SR Airglow]

2-4" lollies to 5" here.

 

-skisheep

[green tube]

Around .40-.50 for NyC and the 5 boroughs nice run

 

 

not to nitpick but nowhere in nyc is it .5"

[snywx]

A dusting here..

[TWCCraig]

3-5" here or more verbatim

[Chaser25973]

If the GFS shows the same or similar, it's game on with or without the EURO.

[Weather Fanatic 97]

not to nitpick but nowhere in nyc is it .5"

i meant around .40 in NyC and closer to .50 in southern brooklyn / rockaway queens

[mikemurph44]

If the GFS shows the same or similar, it's game on with or without the EURO.

if you want to take that risk and call for a 3-5 inch or more snowfall in the metro area, go right ahead, but be aware of the huge bust potential that is possible if the ecmwf once again shows absolutely nothing for us at 0z. It has been unwavering that we get nothing run after run after run for days now and the other models have been flip flopping. The consistency and its record really say something

[TWCCraig]

if you want to take that risk and call for a 3+ inch snowfall in the metro area, go right ahead, but be aware of the huge bust potential that is possible if the ecmwf once again shows absolutely nothing for us at 0z. It has been unwavering that we get nothing run after run after run for days now and the other models have been flip flopping. The consistency and its record really say something

 

I'm still waiting for my 0.25" that the Euro was giving me a few of weeks ago when every other model was calling for nothing.

[mikemurph44]

I'm still waiting for my 0.25" that the Euro was giving me a few of weeks ago when every other model was calling for nothing.

. And I'm still waiting for the norlun inverted trough that was bringing us 4+ inches of snow back at the end of January that the nam and rgem promised was going to happen right up until the non event. The euro nailed that one,

[Dsnowx53]

Around .40-.50 for NyC and the 5 boroughs nice run

not to nitpick but nowhere in nyc is it .5"

JFK is .48".

[TWCCraig]

. And I'm still waiting for the norlun inverted trough that was bringing us 4+ inches of snow back at the end of January that the nam and rgem promised was going to happen right up until the non event

 

Using the Euro in this case is like having someone who is having 1 bad/clumsy day install a washing machine in your house instead of hiring someone else who is having a good day and will likely get the washing machine installed with out any problems. Bad analogy I know.

[TWCCraig]

I wouldn't say what the Euro is showing is wrong, it could be right but I doubt it. I just think since it had a bad time getting this storm to show up in the first place while the GFS and the NAM had gives me confidence that the GFS and the NAM have a better handle on this system than the Euro.

[mikemurph44]

Using the Euro in this case is like having someone who is having 1 bad/clumsy day install a washing machine in your house instead of hiring someone else who is having a good day and will likely get the washing machine installed with out any problems. Bad analogy I know.

. Yes and I remember people saying that the euro was useless in predicting that norlun non event because only the higher resolution models like the nam and rgem would show it and not the globals. The euro was totally dismissed then too and the norlun was 100 percent guaranteed based on the nam and rgem, yet it never happened and the euro turned out to be the hands down winner. I remember some people here were convinced we were getting a 4-8 inch or more snowfall from the phantom norlun and what happened? Zilch, zip zero

[ace0927]

Sweet. Look forward to it. Mt holly jump up a bit on accumulation pretty much brings up everyone to two inches

SREF plumes are about 5" for JFK, a lot higher than 15Z

[TWCCraig]

. Yes and I remember people saying that the euro was useless in predicting that norlun non event because only the higher resolution models like the nam and rgem would show it and not the globals. The euro was totally dismissed then too and the norlun was 100 percent guaranteed based on the nam and rgem, yet it never happened and the euro turned out to be the hands down winner. I remember some were people here were convinced we were getting a 4-8 inch or more snowfall from the phantom norlun and what happened? Zilch, zip zero

 

I think I still got an inch with that, but the GFS agreed with the Euro on tha no norlun would show. The GFS agrees with the NAM this time. Norluns are very unpredictable in first place anyway.

 

21z SREF plumes for KISP: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130212&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ISP&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.65954869647367&mLON=-73.180348046875&mTYP=roadmap

 

[Kaner587]

Sref/nam/GFS agreement? I'm going with that any day especially when the euro is out on its own. If the foreign model suite were all misses I'd say this has huge bust potential and we could get nothing. RGEM is south but not a miss and I believe the ukie and ggem were scrapers not a total miss a la the euro. I could see this being more 1-3/2-4 instead of 3-5 but a complete miss with little to no precip north of southern jersey? I doubt it

[FreeRain]

if you want to take that risk and call for a 3-5 inch or more snowfall in the metro area, go right ahead, but be aware of the huge bust potential that is possible if the ecmwf once again shows absolutely nothing for us at 0z. It has been unwavering that we get nothing run after run after run for days now and the other models have been flip flopping. The consistency and its record really say something

 

Yes, the ECMWF has been calling for nothing, run after run, for days. Meanwhile Upton says this...(Excerpt)THE ECMWF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER HASBEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT....AS IT IS AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THATBEING SAID...THERE IS SOME CONCERN IN THAT THERE IS STRONGFRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND IT WILL NOTTAKE MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TO BRINGTHE MODERATE/HEAVY PCPN INTO THE REGION.

(Excerpt)

PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS FOR ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH INLAND AND 2 TO 3 TENTHS AT THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AT THE ONSET WILL RESULT IN A WET SNOW. THUS...LOOKING FOR AROUND ANDINCH INLAND...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS LI.

[PB GFI]

Iso. U r right. Was def gun shy to commit. But all thats left is BL issue and that gets overcome w .50 plus in 6 hrs. I set my watch by the euro. But its the euro that came n 500 miles in 2 days. So now its just behind in its precip output. Looks like a solid 4 inches nyc south. At some point outlets gona hav to at least talk 2 to 4 as forecasts.

[SnowGoose69]

I wouldn't say what the Euro is showing is wrong, it could be right but I doubt it. I just think since it had a bad time getting this storm to show up in the first place while the GFS and the NAM had gives me confidence that the GFS and the NAM have a better handle on this system than the Euro.

 

The Euro IMO is a terrible model inside of 48 hours, the verification may say otherwise but remember, thats taking into account 200 or more VFR fine weather days in zonal flow during the course of the year, that does not mean in the face of a significant weather system its a better model in the long run 48 hours out or less.  I sometimes wish somebody would take the time to run the numbers before a significant weather system impacts a region and see which model generally is better, my guess is the GFS would probably outperform the Euro often inside of 2 days most locales in the lower 48.

[Kaner587]

The Euro IMO is a terrible model inside of 48 hours, the verification may say otherwise but remember, thats taking into account 200 or more VFR fine weather days in zonal flow during the course of the year, that does not mean in the face of a significant weather system its a better model in the long run 48 hours out or less.  I sometimes wish somebody would take the time to run the numbers before a significant weather system impacts a region and see which model generally is better, my guess is the GFS would probably outperform the Euro often inside of 2 days most locales in the lower 48.

especially this year we've seen the euro falter in the short term. I get the fascination with the model in the mid range,which btw this year hasn't been anything special besides sandy and nemo which obviously were huge catches.

[SnowGoose69]

especially this year we've seen the euro falter in the short term. I get the fascination with the model in the mid range,which btw this year hasn't been anything special besides sandy and nemo which obviously were huge catches.

 

The Euro struggles in certain situations but those situations are often very hard to pinpoint because it will not necessarily struggle in them every time, it may do so every 5 or 6 out of 10 times which makes it extremely hard to really focus on a weakness outside of its tendency to hang stuff back over the SW.  I've noticed without a doubt its no longer as good as it was prior to the upgrade a few years back, not so much short term but more so beyond Day 5, it seems to have a light version of the bias the GEM has where it likes to phase or deepen small pieces of energy, hence we see lots of cutters beyond Day 5 as well as deep systems on the coast which tend not to verify. 

[rgwp96]

I think I still got an inch with that, but the GFS agreed with the Euro on tha no norlun would show. The GFS agrees with the NAM this time. Norluns are very unpredictable in first place anyway.

 

21z SREF plumes for KISP: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130212&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ISP&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.65954869647367&mLON=-73.180348046875&mTYP=roadmap

 

how do i change the stations ?