BxEngine Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 they are wishing. wishes rule this forum On both sides of the coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 they are wishing. wishes rule this forum. I have noticed that a few, not all are real quick to say a model is wrong and has a bias when it does not show snow, but when a model does show snow that model 's "bias" disappears and it is taken to be 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 . I have noticed that a few, not all are real quick to say a model is wrong and has a bias when it does not show snow, but when a model does show snow that model 's "bias" disappears and it is taken to be 100% correct We all know this is true. That said, since no one is a fortuneteller, probably no harm in being an optimist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I would venture to say that the EURO, which showed Nemo to be a catastrophic blizzard in NYC, is having its troubles this winter. Its accuracy cannot be counted on alone. I would see we've got a fair shot at a 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I would venture to say that the EURO, which showed Nemo to be a catastrophic blizzard in NYC, is having its troubles this winter. Its accuracy cannot be counted on alone. I would see we've got a fair shot at a 3-6 inches. For all intents and purposes "Nemo" was another example of the euro dominating. sorry, try again. Yes, it showed a blizzard in NYC that did not verify. "catastrophic" is your own added hyperbole and an immense snowstorm did occur just east of new york city. if you truly watched the models from 4 days out right until the start of the event, you would come out saying the euro was the winner. if not, you just aren't being honest with yourself. every other model played catch up to the euro, and some didn't even want to do that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 they are wishing. wishes rule this forum Agreed. Some are saying Euro is completely right, when it hasn't been preforming well with this storm, and some are dying by the NAM. OT but Forky, I got to give it to you. Every time you update your profile pic, it makes me laugh so hard. It's hilarious where you find pics like that. This is what I found after a google search. http://peterbellarby.mycouncillor.org.uk/2012/03/30/alison-andrews-is-the-scottish-lib-dem-candidate-for-kirriemuir-and-dean-ward-in-the-angus-council-election/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 GEFS looks pretty much identical to the Operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 For all intents and purposes "Nemo" was another example of the euro dominating. sorry, try again. Yes, it showed a blizzard in NYC that did not verify. "catastrophic" is your own added hyperbole and an immense snowstorm did occur just east of new york city. if you truly watched the models from 4 days out right until the start of the event, you would come out saying the euro was the winner. if not, you just aren't being honest with yourself. every other model played catch up to the euro, and some didn't even want to do that at all. The Euro may have handled the Feb 8th snowstorm best, but it was too far west...the GFS track was a little better even though the GFS didn't have nearly enough QPF in SNE and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The Euro may have handled the Feb 8th snowstorm best, but it was too far west...the GFS track was a little better even though the GFS didn't have nearly enough QPF in SNE and LI. Too far west by maybe 50 miles... conversely, it was the first to show Long Island getting hammered with copious amounts of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The Euro may have handled the Feb 8th snowstorm best, but it was too far west...the GFS track was a little better even though the GFS didn't have nearly enough QPF in SNE and LI. gfs completely blew leading up the blizzard. the SNE will tell you so because it was a complete failure for them. there wasn't any other guidance out there besides the euro that held serve, for the most part, from 4/5 days out with the OVERALL depiction of the event. you will get wobbles and ticks with tracks and qpf but the guidance that shows the least amount of variance will always win out....gfs and nam had a huge amount of variance while the euro had minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 dood, gfs completely blew leading up the blizzard. the SNE will tell you so because it was a complete failure for them. you cant just look in your backyard....you know this. there wasn't any other guidance out there besides the euro that held serve, for the most part, from 4/5 days out with the OVERALL depiction of the event. you will get wobbles and ticks with tracks and qpf but the guidance that shows the least amount of variance will always win out....gfs and nam had a huge amount of variance while the euro had minimal.The Euro was consistent from 5 days out. Period. End of discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This will happen. Not absolutely sure it will happen. But it seems Mt. Holly, and the last I saw Upton's forecast earlier today, are both calling for what the Euro isn't calling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any word on what the latest 21z SREFs showed for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any word on what the latest 21z SREFs showed for the area? yeah, they are north. havent seen the individuals, but the .50 line bisects LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Any word on what the latest 21z SREFs showed for the area? A little bit wetter then 18z nam. Has city close to .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 yeah, they are north. havent seen the individuals, but the .50 line bisects LI Looks like about to the North Shore. I'm thinking locally I get either half an inch of snow tomorrow night or half a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sref is nice. Around .50 for NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Srefs Ptype maps have all snow for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Srefs Ptype maps have all snow for area once the plumes are out ill post them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 once the plumes are out ill post them... Sweet. Look forward to it. Mt holly jump up a bit on accumulation pretty much brings up everyone to two inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Stronger southern stream and more digging on the sref . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nam is closed off already and heights are slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 thru 21 hrs this run looks like dog doo-doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM is very slightly weaker with 00z. No major changes so far. Precip has yet to reach the area yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Not absolutely sure it will happen. But it seems Mt. Holly, and the last I saw Upton's forecast earlier today, are both calling for what the Euro isn't calling for. I'm still waiting for the 16" of snow the Euro promised me last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 27 mod snow up to sandy hook. Light snow for metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 30 mod snow for area. Heavy along the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hr 27 mod snow up to sandy hook. Light snow for metro area Pretty sure 20-25 dbz is mod snow, and most of us are in at least that at hour 27 on the sims. Hour 24 even. This is a nice hit overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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