Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z gfs is a pretty nice hit for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 39 enhancement back towards cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Definitely further west initially and wetter. At 36 0.5 line up to south shore. 0.25 line just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Definitely further west initially and wetter. At 36 0.5 line up to south shore. 0.25 line just north of NYC Qpf is very close to 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OK let me be more clear , the NAM hasnt moved in 5 days , same 996 off AC , We agree that upton and mt holly dont buy the hyper qpf that the nam just spit out . I said i hate to see the nam nail a forecast 5 days out and blow it inside 24 hrs in with high qpf ... Then i went onto say upton and mt holly with there 1 - 3 is less than 4 inch NCEP probabilities that they paint across the area . So figuring out who has the better handle THE LOCAL OFFICES maybe BL ISSUES ? or hydro center . MT Holly has to see BL issue as well and not buying even the 12z NAM I don't understand one thing that you wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS nam srefs basically all agree. GFS is almost spot on to the nam maybe the 0.5 line is 15miles SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z GFS find a weakness in that confluence up north and looks decently amped. Precip on our doorstep at 30 There isn't a lot of confluence north of us. That wouldn't be what kills this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice trend on GFS, another 30 miles northwest and this could surprise alot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There isn't a lot of confluence north of us. That wouldn't be what kills this event. Of course not. But on the 500mb map you can see the heights extending further north than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. Ehh idk, the sun will be down and there is still snow cover, I think temps will get pretty close to freezing at the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC's snowfall products are crap. Have you noticed how they are created? They simply take the 60% contours of the 4, 8,12 in. snowfall forecasts from the SREF and literally outline them with low, med, high risks. There is little to no effort that go into making those products unfortunately. Hands down, I would run with the NWS local products. OK let me be more clear , the NAM hasnt moved in 5 days , same 996 off AC , We agree that upton and mt holly dont buy the hyper qpf that the nam just spit out . I said i hate to see the nam nail a forecast 5 days out and blow it inside 24 hrs in with high qpf ... Then i went onto say upton and mt holly with there 1 - 3 is less than 4 inch NCEP probabilities that they paint across the area . So figuring out who has the better handle THE LOCAL OFFICES maybe BL ISSUES ? or hydro center . MT Holly has to see BL issue as well and not buying even the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. The snow looks to enhance when it's at its peak and over the open water and it's at night. It might not be a powdery snow but it should be able to accumulate I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The snow looks to enhance when it's at its peak and over the open water and it's at night. It might not be a powdery snow but it should be able to accumulate I would think. I agree. Wherever the jackpot area is there will be more than 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well the GFS is a solid hit, keeps the heaviest precip just offshore, similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC's snowfall products are crap. Have you noticed how they are created? They simply take the 60% contours of the 4, 8,12 in. snowfall forecasts from the SREF and literally outline them with low, med, high risks. There is little to no effort that go into making those products unfortunately. Hands down, I would run with the NWS local products. and HPCs latest maps slashed the chance of decent snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. What about for inland areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. Temperatures in the mid and upper levels are quite cold and our dewpoints will be quite low, and the precipitation falls at night. We'll easily cool off quite quickly. Plus, the GFS doesn't have the resolution to resolve cooling via heavy precipitation. It busted way too warm in parts of Oklahoma today at the surface. Also, that product is the 2m temps and 10m winds, not 10m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC's snowfall products are crap. Have you noticed how they are created? They simply take the 60% contours of the 4, 8,12 in. snowfall forecasts from the SREF and literally outline them with low, med, high risks. There is little to no effort that go into making those products unfortunately. Hands down, I would run with the NWS local products. Yeah pretty much, I never look at those things, the WFOs likely don't either as they often can disagree with them by alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yes, the GFS is north. BUT, look at 10m temps, guys. It's basically light to occasionally moderate snow that accumulates only on grassy surfaces..maybe 1 to 3 in...with surface temps around 34. This is hardly an event. It's just too damn warm at the surface. just took a look at the gfs 2m temps and yea it's ugly, I don't trust the nam, always overdone and the rgem is still se of the nam's track as snowgoose pointed out. I think the area will be lucky to see an inch to be honest and the euro may actually win this battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If we don't get much snow, it's going to because of the track being too far south, not because of temperatures. I mean if we get a graze of .1" of QPF, then our temperatures won't cool off much, but as long as we get steady precipitation, we'll be fine temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If you drop .50 of liquid into CNJ after dark with dew points in the low 20`s , 850`s at minus 1 ( my bad ) and start the surface out at 40 , I think its more than the 1 inch of snow MT HOLLY has in Monmouth County . Thats my argument . If the Euro is right then the whole thing falls apart . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 for some of us it may be snowing....or raining in the afternoon hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If you drop .50 of liquid into CNJ after dark with dew points in the low 20`s , 850`s at minus 1 ( my bad ) and start the surface out at 40 , I think its more than the 1 inch of snow MT HOLLY has in Monmouth County . Thats my argument . If the Euro is right then the whole thing falls apart . because they think it is not going to be .50 of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If the Euro is right then the whole thing falls apart . banking on the euro being completely wrong 36 hours out doesnt give me much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 for some of us it may be snowing....or raining in the afternoon hours Rain? Maybe from C NJ on south. If anyone north of that gets rain, they'll change to snow quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 banking on the euro being completely wrong 36 hours out doesnt give me much confidence. exactly, we have to hope the euro is dead wrong and has been dead wrong on all the previous runs, let's just say I wouldn't play those odds in vegas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If we don't get much snow, it's going to because of the track being too far south, not because of temperatures. I mean if we get a graze of .1" of QPF, then our temperatures won't cool off much, but as long as we get steady precipitation, we'll be fine temperature wise. Strongly agree. Right now I still think the Euro is having issues, and we're going to have a zone of solid vv's as far north as sern PA and NJ tomorrow night. 850's are supportive and the skew-t's I saw off the NAM/GFS clearly indicate that steady precip will cool the boundary layer. Light 15-20 dbz stuff won't do it, but if we get moderate snow in this airmass, that will be sufficient to dynamically chill the column to 32/32 or so. Remember the ECMWF hasn't been great w/ sern stream events this winter. A few weeks ago it had 0.25"+ into PHL/NYC right up until 12 hrs before the storm while every other model had us in virtually nothing. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Euro bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 banking on the euro being completely wrong 36 hours out doesnt give me much confidence. they are wishing. wishes rule this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 they are wishing. wishes rule this forum Yes , when the euro is an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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